Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info:
Kickoff: 7:39 PM CST
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Shell Energy Stadium – Houston, TX
All-Time H2H Record:
Austin FC has 5W - 0D - 3L.
Go ahead and take another long look at that record. Let it soak in. If anyone from Houston ever tries to tell you that this isn’t a rivalry, then make sure to bring this up.
Last match between these two clubs was a 3-0 win for Austin at Q2 stadium that saw goals from Ethan Finlay, Gyasi Zardes, and Julio Cascante. That 2023 campaign was marred by many issues, but arguably the largest one was that Austin was consistently unable to finish their “big chances.” That match saw two big chances created and two big chances finished. We like that.
Houston Dynamo Recent Form:
A quick glance at the table may lead one to believe that Houston is a much superior club to Austin FC. That would be a casual mistake to make, as the numbers will reveal later in this piece. Houston has been VERY fortunate to say the least in their seven games this season.
Let’s take a closer look at a few of the underlying numbers that easily highlight the orange facade hanging over the Dynamo. Through seven games Houston has nine goals scored and seven conceded. This is the exact same figure as the Seattle Sounders who, until April 6th, had not won a single game. There are only three teams in the entire Western Conference with less than double digit goals this season. One is Houston, the other two are single-win teams Seattle and Dallas.
In their four wins here are the total xG figures – Houston 2.79. Opponents 4.82. Somehow, this has led to Houston scoring six goals and while allowing just two in those matchups. When we look into those numbers further, their matchup against San Jose was one where Houston was up a man for over an hour of the match and then managed to score two goals in the final 10 minutes to eke out a win. Houston had an xG of 0.47 that game. Up a man for an hour!
In the Dynamo’s road win against the Colorado Rapids, the Dynamo generated just six shots, had an xG of 0.77 and scored their lone goal after Colorado’s center back Maxsø was left to bleed from his head in the box without the (replacement) ref stopping play. That officiating mistake resulted in the Houston goal with just seconds remaining in stoppage time.
Of their nine goals this season, three of them have come from ibrahim Aliyu and one was an own goal last week versus Minnesota United. Unsurprisingly to The North End, Amine Bassi has yet to score, since Houston hasn’t won a penalty kick this season, and that’s all he’s good for outside of flopping around like a fish when there’s even a scent of contact in his general vicinity.
All of that is well and good, but Houston still has four wins and is sitting on 13 points. At the end of the day, that’s what matters in the standings. If you’ve been a fan of this game for a while or even a short time, you understand how fickle it can be. Teams that are thoroughly outplayed can end up with 3 points. Maybe these figures are a testament to Houston’s resiliency and taking advantage of situations, maybe they are signs of larger issues plaguing an inept offensive unit. Either way, we don’t think they’re as good as their record indicates and are ready to have Austin put them through a litmus test to prove us right.
It wouldn’t be fair to not bring up that Houston’s best player, Hector Herrera, has yet to play this season. HH is expected to make his season debut in this rivalry matchup, but we think it’s likely that he’ll be limited and not yet near the excellent form he displayed all of last year. Despite not being 100%, HH is a top class player in MLS who makes his teammates better and stymies opposing offenses with physical midfield defense and deft timing. Even in limited minutes, Herrera can be incredibly effective and needs to be accounted for.
Austin’s Recent Form:
We’ve illustrated Austin’s putrid road offense on the pod and in graphics on our social pages. The team has been flat out terrible on the road on the offensive side of the ball. We haven’t scored a single goal away from Q2 Stadium and have generated a pathetic 2.3 shots on goal and 0.17 xG per game on average.
Again, the numbers can be misleading. The strategies for the games against Seattle and Orlando were vastly different than what we should expect come this Saturday. In the Seattle matchup, a draw that Austin fans should (in my opinion) be proud of, we were still without Driussi. The game plan was clearly constructed around staying compact, being defensive minded, and allowing Seattle to take shots from outside the box. We executed the game plan to perfection and secured a point on the road in a difficult place to play. That has value over the long haul of a 34 match regular season.
The Orlando match was a bit different. Driussi had returned, although he was very clearly not 100% and we only got about 60 minutes out of our Argentinian thoroughbred. It’s also important to note that we were without Julio Cascante and Dani Pereira in that game due to international duty. While they’re both defenders, Julio is arguably the best offensive CB in the league and Dani is the liaison between our defensive unit and offensive unit, consistently progressing the ball into the attacking phase of play.
In Austin’s latest road loss, a 1-0 defeat to St. Louis City SC, the strategy was once again a very conservative one. This was a respectful tip of the cap to how St. Louis wants to play – pressing high up the pitch, pushing the pace fast on counters and getting towards the goal with speed. This Houston offense is a far cry from that of St. Louis.
This is a game on the road to gun for. Houston has consistently controlled possession in most of their games this season and like to dominate possession with tight passing. This is an offense that we don’t need to construct a wall of defense to contain. Houston will look to find Aliyu on the break and allow him to use his speed to put pressure on Matt Hedges and Brandon Hines-Ike (more on that later).
The Dynamo, while having been fortunate, have been clinical with their finishing and very efficient with the chances they have generated. This is something that Josh Wolff talked about in his press availability on Thursday morning, hammering home that the difference between these two clubs right now is that Houston has finished their chances, while Austin, particularly on the road, has not.
I think we see a far more aggressive Austin team on the counter in this game, Houston likes to have the ball, when they turn it over, we can capitalize. This strategy has paid great dividends for teams against Austin, but it’s time to flip the script.
Injury Report:
ATX - Leo Väisänen (OUT - Foot), Owen Wolff (OUT - Ankle), Julio Cascante (OUT - Yellow Card Accumulation)
HOU - Hector Herrera (Questionable - Hamstring), Nelson Quinones (OUT - Knee), Franco Escobar (Questionable - Lower Body), Sebastian Ferreria (Questionable - Adductor), Erik Sviatchenko (Out - Hamstring)
Houston Players to Watch:
Ibrahim Aliyu - This is their Jáder Obrian from a speed standpoint. Aliyu is the current leader in goals scored for Houston with three and is capable of taking the top off of a defense at a moment’s notice. In a matchup where chances should be limited, corralling Aliyu is a priority.
Coco Carrasquilla - As we talked about in Episode 135, Houston will get creative with how they shift their box midfield around depending on matchups. Carrasquilla’s ability to produce at multiple midfield positions is one of the main reasons that the Dynamo are able to have that luxury. He has a 7.14 FotMob rating (higher than every Austin FC player outside of Bradley Scott Stuver) on the season and is impactful on both sides of the ball. He gets his teammates involved in tight spaces and helps unleash Aliyu up the sideline on a dangerously consistent basis. Finding our defensive shell and containing Carrasquilla with multiple effort plays can limit his effectiveness and be a big reason Austin could bring home a result this weekend.
Austin Players to Watch:
Let’s take a look at guys who we need to play above their normal expected level of contribution in order to get three points in this chapter of the fiesty Copa Tejas rivalry.
Jon Gallagher - I’m looking to Gally to step up and give us a goal contribution in this game. He certainly has the skillset to do so and we truly need someone on the defensive side of the ball to up their game, as Austin will be without Julio Cascante. Both teams will look to control pace and possession, making patience a priority. Picking and choosing our spots on the offensive side of the ball will lead to opportunities that we can (finally) capitalize on. I’m expecting Jon to provide either a sweeping cross in the box for an assist or find himself on the end of a teammate’s service to bury a goal from inside the area.
Matt Hedges - If anyone is ready for 90 minutes in the Texas sun, it’s Matt Hedges. With over a decade of service under his belt for FC Dallas, Hedges is no stranger to the Houston Dynamo. While he is not the offensive threat that Julio is, he’s a more sound defender statistically. This is one of the reasons why I’m hoping Gallagher can pick up some offensive slack in this game to mitigate the loss of Julio. Expect Matt to be one of the target men on corners and set pieces as we look to flick crosses from the near post towards that back post scrum.
Austin’s Keys to the Game:
Patience - Both these teams are quite similar in their style of play – they both want to have the ball and control pace. It’s important to not press to the point of breaking the shell and make a costly error in a game like this. I expect Austin to be practical with their tactics when it comes to creating offensive chances. Once those chances start to reveal themselves, it’s up to the boys to capitalize. We can’t keep leaving opportunities out there on the pitch when we create so few.
No Gifts - Turnovers, penalty kicks, and fouls are precisely what I am referring to here. Amine Bassi is a flop extraordinaire and he’s guaranteed to go down at the slightest bit of contact. Alex Ring, one of the men who will be tasked with slowing this Dynamo attack, has conceded two penalty kicks this season – he needs to be extra cautious with Bassi hunting fouls in and around the box. Turnovers – we saw some bad ones in the St. Louis matchup. An errant pass by Owen absolutely should have led to at least a scoring chance for St. Louis – we were fortunate it didn’t. Dani had two to three mental lapses that resulted in us losing possession in dangerous areas as well. If Austin gives this Houston team freebies, it could spell disaster.
Predictions:
E - 1-0 Austin FC
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
