Week 1 MLS Picks
MLS is back and with it, the weekly picks here in The North End!
The stats website FBref losing their advanced data earlier in the preseason was a huge bummer. It was one of the best resources for the super nerds and a big factor in our good fortune with the picks last year. We’ll settle into a new routine this spring and look to make it a third straight successful season.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 1 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have a pick’em entry for you to tail if your heart desires. This week we’re playing on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
We begin the 2026 Pick’Em season with a prop we went to many times last year. Marco Pasalic is entering his second season with Orlando City SC and averaged 3.54 shots per 90 minutes in 2025. He was over this number in 18 of the 27 matches where he played 69 or more minutes last season and was over in both meetings with New York Red Bulls, recording three and five shots respectively. This was a continuation of the rates we saw Pasalic post with Rijeka in his two seasons prior to arriving in MLS where he averaged 3.3 shots per 90 minutes across 49 appearances. The 0.84x multiplier isn’t great, but it’s a tough board here in Week 1 and we’ll get some of that back with our pair of picks from the game of the week below.
Defending champion Inter Miami are on the road to open the season as they wait for their new stadium to open on April 4 against Austin FC. They’ll take on LAFC in what is surely the premier match up of Week 1. As mentioned above, it’s a tough board on Underdog to open the season but this feels like a very strong option for us on Saturday. Messi started 32 games across all MLS competitions (regular season & playoffs) last season. He recorded at least two shots on target in 27 of them. He’s got some new teammates, like German Berterame, that could lower those rates this season. But until we see evidence that the league MVP is slowing down his aggressiveness we’ll take this option every time.
In our final entry for the 2025 regular season we went to Son Heung-Min as one of our three options and we’ll do the same to open 2026. While Son’s regular season sample size after arriving in MLS last summer is just ten games, this is another very strong option just north of the standard multiplier. The South Korean star averaged 2.13 shots on target per 90 minutes in those ten games and was over in eight of 10 games across all competitions (13 total appearances) when playing 80 or more minutes.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 40% soccer profit boost token dropped in users accounts on Saturday morning) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.62x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Louis Munteanu O 2.5 shots attempted (0.97x)
Simon Becher O 2.5 shots attempted
Ethan Horvath O 1.5 goals allowed
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (1.04x)
Phillip Zinckernagel O 2.5 shots attempted (1.03x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Season): +20.18 U
Underdog Fantasy (2026 Season): 0.0 U
Week 1 Picks
Atlanta United Double Chance
-115
We’ve got FC Cincinnati finishing as the second seed in the Eastern Conference once again in our season-long predictions, but we’re also confident in a much better year out of Atlanta United. The Five Stripes are on the road taking on the Knifey Lions on Saturday and we’re going to lean into some of the underlying numbers for Cincy from 2025. While they finished on 65 points, just one back of the Supporter’s Shield winning Philadelphia Union, Cincy also wildly outperformed their expected points by 22, by far the biggest number in that category league-wide. The expected points table had them in 11th and on the same 43 points that were expected out of teams like Austin FC and Houston Dynamo in 2025. Even Atlanta United was expected to record 44 points! So we’re going to take the Five Stripes on the double chance for near even money.
Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls
O 2.5 -130
Attacking the over in Orlando City home matches last year was a tasty proposition. They host NYRB on opening night and while we love getting some tasty plus-money options on our weekly card, this juice is easy to stomach. Lions home games went over this number in 13 of 17 matches in 2025 and with the losses Orlando suffered on the back line this off season, plus Robin Jansson being sidelined due to injury on Saturday, makes this an easy over for us in Week 1.
Austin FC
ML +125
After going back and forth on if we wanted to touch this one, we’re going to push some chips in on our favorite team. The absences of Owen Wolff and Mikkel Desler are a big reason why the Verde and Black are at plus money to collect all three points on Saturday, but perhaps too much credit is being given to the visitors here. Minnesota United put out a clean injury report on Friday, but that means they could be working in some newcomers who haven’t had much time at all training with the group. Austin is at home with their typical raucous crowd at their back. That hasn’t translated into fortress-like domination for ATX thus far, but we’ll take them at plus money to get the job done on opening night.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 1 shouts.
Wilfried Zaha +270
Emmanuel Latte Lath +225
Marco Pasalic +205
Jorge Ruvalcaba +400
Dor Turgeman +360
Mateusz Bogusz +350
Phillip Zinckernagel +245
Facundo Torres +240
Jayden Nelson +370
German Berterame +240
Heung-Min Son +125
Lionel Messi +125
Kristoffer Velde +275
Gabriel Pec +225
Paxten Aaronson +500
Results
Last Season: +51.5 U
2026 Season: 0.0 U
