Week 11 MLS Picks
Some cold water was poured on the hot streak last weekend, but we maintained a positive number overall. Looking to get back on track in Matchday 11, where we’ve got a ton of game windows of MLS action across both Saturday and Sunday.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 11 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have a pick’em entry for you to tail if your heart desires. This week we’re playing on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
Another limited board at Underdog Fantasy this week as the MLS fixtures continue to be interspersed with European leagues finishing up the final few games of their seasons. We’ll get to some new options shortly, but we begin the Week 11 entry with a familiar pattern, attacking the opponents of Inter Miami. The Herons have still yet to win in their new stadium and will host intrastate rival Orlando City SC on Saturday evening. The Lions have been leaking goals this season, averaging 2.9 goals against per game. They’ve allowed three or more goals in four of the five road matches they’ve played to this point of the season, with an average of 4.8 goals conceded in that sample. Miami is -171 at the books to score two or more goals, so we’ll roll with Messi and Co.
Then we hit the first of two passing props Underdog is offering us this week. Hugo Cuypers and the Chicago Fire are off to an exciting start and are still buzzing from their five second half goals last weekend against Sporting KC. They did bow out of the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday in a home loss against St. Louis City SC, so their attention now turns completely to league play. Cuypers is enjoying an extremely hot start to the season, with eight goals in just six appearances. But throughout his Fire tenure he’s never been overly involved in the build up and has been under this number in four of six matches this season in addition to 29 of 33 league games in 2025.
Finishing things up by staying in that same game and taking another passing prop on the other side of the ball. Evander is and always has been the engine of FC Cincinnati on the offensive side of the ball. He had a slow start to the season after picking up a knock in the first 15 minutes of the season opener, but has since gone over this number in five of his seven games when playing 90 minutes this season. Evander was also over this number in 23 of 31 regular season starts last season.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 40% profit boost token dropped in users accounts on Friday) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.6x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games, want to make additional entries or one of the given options doesn’t start. Patreon members can feel free to reach out and discuss picks in the Discord. As always, the additional plays are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Carles Gil O 54.5 passes
Andrew Thomas U 0.5 goals allowed (1.29x)
Zack Steffen O 1.5 goals allowed (0.87x)
Mbekezeli Mbokazi U 60.5 passes
Matt Freese U 0.5 goals allowed (1.17x)
Drake Callender O 1.5 goals allowed (0.87x)
Michael Collodi O 1.5 goals allowed (0.87x)
Kristijan Kahlina O 1.5 goals allowed (1.07x)
Luka Gavran O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Last Week: -1.0 U
Season: -2.08 U
Week 11 Picks
Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
U 3 -115
We’re going back to the under in Toronto for the first match of the weekend. Like we discussed last week, this is a team that has been over performing both their xG (+5.3) and xGA (+6.8) through the first 10 matches of 2026. As their pre-World Cup homestand continues they welcome San Jose Earthquakes to town, who are on the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Atlanta United in the table. The Quakes also went full speed ahead in their midweek U.S. Open Cup match and we should expect some rotation from a side that hasn’t had much during their fast start. San Jose will also be without Timo Werner and Toronto has listed nine players as out with a questionable tag on Josh Sargent. We’re going to trust that the scoring normalizes in these Toronto matches with both teams notably shorthanded headed into the weekend.
San Diego FC
ML +140
We’ve got another case of “wait and see” on this pick. With LAFC manager Marc Dos Santos going on a postgame tirade in the midweek following the club’s first leg of CCC semifinals against Toluca, we are expecting significant rotation from LAFC. If that comes to pass, we’re firing on San Diego, who have continued their early season skid. Even without Jeppe Tverskov, we’ll take a motivated San Diego at home against their in-state rivals whose attention is very clearly on CCC. Again, hold off on this one until closer to kickoff. If two of Denis Bouanga, Heung-Min Son or David Martinez get the start here, we’ll stay away.
Austin FC
ML +150
Very simple case for backing Austin in consecutive weeks. The Verde & Black steadied the ship, at least momentarily, with a victory over the Houston Dynamo. Now they play host to St. Louis City SC, just one of two teams below ATX in the Western Conference table. STL did get a big win in the midweek over Chicago Fire to advance to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals for the first time in club history. We may see some rotation from them, but wouldn’t change our thinking on this one regardless. Austin FC should see the return of Brandon Vazquez, Owen Wolff and Dani Pereira off the bench in this one and adding those guys to the mix makes this an easy (albeit potentially homer) pick in Week 11.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 11 shouts.
Morgan Guilavogui +150
Kristoffer Velde +310
Woobens Pacius +255
Wilfried Zaha +295
Dor Turgeman +180
Evander +250
Mateusz Bogusz +270
Jeremy Ebobisse +235
Ryan Hollingshead +1400
Hannes Wolf +215
Myrto Uzuni +210
Facundo Torres +250
Guilherme Biro +1000
To Score Or Assist
Joaquin Pereyra +195
Jude Terry +450
Sebastian Berhalter +140
Results
Last Week: -3.05 U
2026 Season: +2.35 U
