Week 12 MLS Picks
What was shaping up to be a near break-even week turned into a great result after Ryan Hollingshead found the net for LAFC in the 16th minute of second half stoppage time. We’ll take it and run, turning our attention to another busy MLS weekend.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 12 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have a pick’em entry for you to tail if your heart desires. This week we’re playing on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
We’ve been on fire at the books over the last six weeks, but haven’t hit a pick’em entry since Week 1. In our latest attempt to break that streak, we’re looking at a trio of goals allowed props for this week’s entry. We’ll begin in Toronto, where the struggling Inter Miami is in town to take on an extremely depleted home side. Toronto has listed ten players out, including Djordje Mihailovic, Josh Sargent, Richie Laryea and Jose Cifuentes, and are pretty clearly the inferior side even when healthy. But we don’t even need Miami to improve their lackluster defensive play for this prop, we just need them to net two goals, something they’ve done in eight of the ten league games that Lionel Messi has played this season and are -233 to do at the books. There’s a new UI on Underdog, so we want to note that the Gavran prop is a 0.83x multiplier at the time of this writing.
From the first match on Saturday to the late night window, we’re going to pick on another struggling defense here and target San Diego FC on the road. They’re allowing 2.2 goals per game across their five road matches this season, while Seattle has scored two or more goals in all three of their home fixtures in 2026. The Sounders are -226 to score two or more goals at the books, something they also accomplished in 12 of 18 home matches in the MLS regular season and playoffs last year. This Ferree prop is (0.82x) at time of writing.
Staying in the late window to close out our entry this week. The Quakes have been the darling of MLS to this point of the year, but they’ll face their first real adversity of the season as both Timo Werner and Niko Tsakiris will miss this match and likely the rest of May for San Jose. While that’s more of a loss on the offensive side of the ball, they’re also facing the team that grades out as the best in MLS. Vancouver has been a machine, really since the beginning of last season. They will also be without Thomas Muller, but the Whitecaps have been fine without him when he’s missed time since arriving last summer. Vancouver has created 51 big chances in 11 matches, a full ten more than the next closest team (which happens to be San Jose). They’ve averaged 2.6 goals per game this season, scoring two or more in eight of 11 matches this season. With Daniel’s goals allowed prop sitting at a standard 1x and Vancouver -155 to score two or more goals at the books, we’re Whitecap fans tonight on Underdog.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 40% profit boost token dropped in users accounts on this week) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.01x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games, want to make additional entries or one of the given options doesn’t start. Patreon members can feel free to reach out and discuss picks in the Discord. As always, the additional plays are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Morgan Guilavogui O 2.5 shots attempted (0.83x)
Evander O 3.5 shots attempted (1.16x)
Rafael Cabral O 1.5 goals allowed
Facundo Torres O 0.5 shots on target (0.92x)
Mateusz Bogusz O 2.5 shots attempted (1.11x)
Roman Burki O 1.5 goals allowed (0.91x)
Hugo Cuypers O 1.5 shots on target (1.03x)
Sean Johnson O 1.5 goals allowed (0.86x)
Ethan Horvath O 2.5 goals allowed (1.19x)
Results
Last Week: -1.0 U
Season: -3.08 U
Week 12 Picks
Inter Miami
ML -115 (2U)
Third straight week we start things off in Toronto, so we can consider this a rubber match of sorts. Similar to our pick’em entry, we want to attack this depleted Toronto team with an Inter Miami side that is mostly healthy and in need of a win. With a number of the top names for Toronto listed out for this game, including Djordje Mihailovic, Josh Sargent, Richie Laryea and Jose Cifuentes, we’ll back the Herons to take three points back home with them. Considering the circumstances and the near even money odds, we’ll make this our second two-unit play of the season.
Vancouver Whitecaps
ML +120
Another double up between pick’em and the books here in Week 12. As we discussed above, both of these teams are missing key pieces for this match, but the Quakes have less quality depth behind guys like Werner and Tsakiris compared to the visiting Whitecaps. This number has moved towards Vancouver since the injury report dropped on Friday, so we’ll grab it while it’s still in the plus money territory.
Austin FC
Double Chance +115
Are we back to blasting biased fandom picks? Maybe. But one thing that Austin FC has been able to do under Nico Estévez is earn results away from home. Last year’s six road victories were the second most in club history, and while they’ve yet to record an away victory in five tries this season, they have earned draws against Inter Miami and Toronto (the latter of which they were certainly in position to win before Guilherme Biro’s head injury allowed Toronto to score the winner late against a 10-man Austin). With the services of Brandon Vazquez, Owen Wolff and Dani Pereira returned to this rotation, even in likely reserve roles, this is the most talent ATX has been able to put in a matchday roster in 2026. Pair that with the fact that Allianz Field is the place Austin FC has won the most historically (four wins and a draw in seven tries) besides their own home stadium, and we like the double chance at plus money for our Verde & Black.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 12 shouts.
German Berterame +175
Ivan Jaime +245
Martin Ojeda +195
Dor Turgeman +235
Evander +200
Emmanuel Latte Lath +180
Morgan Guilavogui +265
Santiago Moreno +265
Louis Munteanu +310
Anders Dreyer +245
Myrto Uzuni +285
Jon Gallagher +900
Mateusz Bogusz +500
To Score Or Assist
Eduard Lowen +150
Sebastian Berhalter +150
Facundo Torres +175
To Score Two Or More Goals
Morgan Guilavogui +1900 (0.5 U)
Mateusz Bogusz +5000 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: +12.57 U
2026 Season: +14.92 U
