Week 13 MLS Picks
The weekend was a profitable one even though the Underdog entry came up just one Diego Rossi shot attempt short of glory. With our first round of midweek games of the season on tap it’s a quick turnaround headed into Week 13.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Wednesday’s games came out Tuesday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 13 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Over the weekend we once again came up just a single shot attempt from a successful entry (damn you, Rossi!) and if you used any of the secondary picks you may have found some success on Saturday anyway. Let’s get to the board!
We’ll begin in the 6:30 window of games and go back to Diego Rossi for the third straight week. Underdog continues to give us a plus-one multiplier on this 2.5 shot attempt line and we see no reason to jump off now. Rossi has gone over this number in nine of his 12 appearances this season and seven of his last eight games. He’s also averaging 3.13 shot attempts per 90 minutes so far this year. With Underdog still refusing to offer us any “lower” props on the MLS board for anything but goals allowed, this is one of the stronger shot attempt options this week.
Then we’ll go to a goals allowed prop and target John Pulskamp and Sporting KC on the road against rival St. Louis City SC. With STL struggling to score in 2025, this line feels a bit shaky on the surface. But the home team is -130 to score two or more goals and Pulskamp may be the closest thing MLS has to a traffic cone in net. He’s allowed 1.81 goals per 90 minutes through his career and has allowed two or more goals in eight of his 12 games this season. St. Louis City SC has hosted Sporting KC three times in the regular season since they began MLS play in 2023, with Sporting KC conceding at least three goals in all three games. We’ll take the home team to bag multiple goals again against their rivals.
Rounding out the Week 13 entry with a first appearance of the season in the picks from Santi Moreno as the Timbers head to the elevation to take on Real Salt Lake. Portland have greatly over-performed their expected goals this season to the tune of +6.2 (22 goals from 15.8 xG), but one thing we can expect to stay consistent is shot volume. Moreno has taken on a bit more of an offensive load in 2025 with Evander now in Cincinnati. RSL allow the tenth most shot attempts to opponents so far in 2025 and Moreno has recorded at least one shot on target in six of the seven matches that he’s played 77 minutes or more after dealing with an injury to begin the season.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.3x your entry fee if successful.
This month we’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Hannes Wolf O 1.5 shot attempts (0.91x)
Brad Guzan O 1.5 goals allowed (1.07x)
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (1.27x)
Andrew Rick U 0.5 goals allowed (1.27x)
Sean Johnson O 1.5 goals allowed (1.19x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +13.71 U
Week 13 Picks
Philadelphia Union To Win + PHI/LAG O 1.5
-110
We’re going right back to attacking the winless LA Galaxy. After our first two unit play of the season came through on Saturday with the Red Bulls scoring a touchdown on LA and their three DPs all still sidelined for this match, it would feel like malpractice to not find a way to get on the Union here. It appears that Andre Blake will be sidelined again with knee soreness, but even Andrew Rick replacing him in net is nowhere near enough to scare us off of Philly getting a win here. Adding in the over 1.5 with the Union to win to get this down to near even money.
FC Cincinnati
ML +130
The “Knifey Lions” are headed to Toronto after dispatching Austin FC at home over the weekend. Cincy has two questionable tags in Matt Miazga (who left Saturday’s match early with discomfort in his leg) and Luca Orellano. Even if both of those guys sit, Cincinnati has more than enough firepower to pick up all three points on the road against lowly Toronto, who have just 10 points from their 12 matches and sit 26th in the Supporter’s Shield standings. Cincy to win.
Austin FC
ML +110
We’re back on our favorite team in the midweek. Atlanta United comes to Q2 Stadium on Wednesday for a match between two teams in desperate need of a win. The Five Stripes ran all three of their (official) DPs the full 90 in the loss against Chicago Fire on the road on Saturday and with a home match against Philadelphia on tap for this coming weekend, we could certainly see some rotation from the visitors. Either way, Atlanta has conceded 22 goals through 12 matches and on paper are just the matchup that ATX needs to get their stagnant offense going. We’re backing the Verde and Black to get back in the win column.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 13 shouts.
Diego Rossi +215
Evander +225
Kevin Denkey +190
Emil Forsberg +310
Hany Mukhtar +185
Kelvin Yeboah +185
Myrto Uzuni +215
David Da Costa +380
Lionel Messi -105
Hirving Lozano +145
Djordje Mihailovic +295
Denis Bouanga +190
To Score 2+ goals
Myrto Uzuni +1400 (0.5 U)
Denis Bouanga +1200 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: +2.0 U
Season: +11.47 U
