Week 16 MLS Picks
We took a bath over the weekend at the books, but that will happen every once in a while over a 34-game season. We’ve got a full midweek MLS slate to get back on the horse and get back on the path to the land of double-digit units to the good.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Wednesday’s games came out Tuesday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 16 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
Starting off the Week 16 entry with a familiar face that we went to a couple times earlier in the season with Nashville SC striker Sam Surridge. They’re on the road tonight to take on the Columbus Crew in what is surely a top match to tune in to if you’re watching all the action from home tonight. Both teams are tied for third in the Eastern Conference on 27 points, just three back of conference leading Philadelphia Union. Surridge has been over this 2.5 shot attempts number in 8 of his 14 MLS starts this season, averaging 2.95 shot attempts per 90 minutes. He’s also been over this number in five of six road matches this season. The matchup on paper against the Crew is a tough one, but Columbus will be shorthanded on their backline, with goalkeeper Patrick Schulte and defensive midfielder Sean Zawadzki ruled out plus right back Mo Farsi and centerback Steven Moreira listed questionable. The Crew have also been giving up a lot to opposing forwards, allowing them to record 13 goal contributions over the last 10 games, so Columbus is ceding plenty of opportunities. The 1.27x multiplier attached to this prop puts it over the top for us and into the Week 16 entry.
Then we’ll go back to ol’ reliable in Hirving Lozano. San Diego is on the road tonight to take on the Seattle Sounders with an odd start time of 5:00pm PT. If you’ve been tailing the picks this season then you know this line has dropped from where it’s been posted over the last six weeks or so. Now that it’s at 2.5 with just a 0.88x nerf, it’s impossible to get away from. Lozano has been a shot machine in his short MLS tenure, averaging 4.65 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season. He’s over this number in nine of his 12 appearances with one of the three misses being the March 1 match where he exited in the 30th minute due to injury.
We’ll finish off the midweek entry by picking on the winless LA Galaxy. They’re actually favored to win at the books on Wednesday against Cali Classic rival San Jose Earthquakes, but their backline is still the same personnel that has allowed 35 goals in just 15 matches. The Quakes on the other hand have scored the most goals in MLS with 32. LA has gone back to young goalkeeper Novak Micovic of late after he began the season before being benched for John McCarthy. Micovic has given up two or more goals in all four of his starts this season and LA has done the same in 11 of their 15 league matches. To be getting this line at 1.12x feels great and cheering against the Galaxy is always fun (especially if we’re doing it after an Austin FC win!).
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.51x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Jack McGlynn O 1.5 shots attempted
Giacomo Vrioni O 2.5 shots attempted (1.05x)
Rafael Cabral O 1.5 goals allowed (1.04x)
Brad Guzan O 1.5 goals allowed (1.11x)
Hany Mukhtar O 2.5 shots attempted (0.92x)
Anders Dreyer O 2.5 shots attempted (1.19x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +10.71 U
Week 16 Picks
Inter Miami TO Win + O 2.5 MIA/MTL
-115
Back to the Inter Miami well this week. Messi and Co. are seriously struggling right now, at least compared to expectation. What better get-right spot than the worst team in the Eastern Conference coming to South Florida? Inter Miami are massive moneyline favorites, so we’re going to add the over on a 2.5 total to the mix to bring this down to near even money. Since Messi arrived in MLS in late 2023, Inter Miami games have gone over 2.5 goals in 27/40 (67.5%) of the matches he plays, including 8/11 times this season.
Philadelphia Union
ML +130
The Union are headed north of the border to take on Toronto FC on Wednesday and our reasoning for this play is quite simple. Not only is Philadelphia the superior team, but the home side will be without their best player in Federico Bernardeschi, who is suspended for this one. The Union will also welcome back goalkeeper Andre Blake from a lengthy absence with a knee issue and have no other injuries of consequence on the availability report. Toronto are one of the worst home teams in MLS so far, earning just five points from their eight matches at BMO Field. Philly on the other hand is the third best road team in the league and we’re backing them to win outright.
NYCFC
ML -115
The Pigeons are home once again in the midweek and will be back in the narrow confines of Yankee Stadium. They’ll welcome Houston to the Big Apple who will be without DP striker Ezequiel Ponce due to suspension. NYCFC are extremely tough at home historically with their awkward pitch dimensions and are currently tied as the second best home team in MLS to this point of the MLS season with 18 points from their eight home games. The Dynamo have never won at Yankee Stadium in their three all-time trips to New York and we don’t think that changes on Wednesday. NYCFC to win.
Austin FC To Win + LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes O 2.5
+179
Finally breaking into the Western Conference portion of the slate and getting a little bit tricky with a parlay. We’ll start with everyone’s favorite team to win at home. Austin has a clean injury report for the first time since March 1 and has been playing better of late, with draws against the West’s top two teams and a 3-1 win over rival Houston in the US Open Cup over the last 10 days. Real Salt Lake on the other hand is coming in battered and bruised, physically and emotionally. They’ve been without their lone DP Diogo Gonçalves due to injury, blew a two goal lead to Vancouver at home on Saturday in the 90th minute and midfielder Emeka Eneli has joined Gonçalves on the injury report. It’s no surprise to you that we’re backing the Verde and Black here.
Then we’ll pair the ATX moneyline with an over on the 2.5 total in LA Galaxy vs San Jose. These two teams allow insane amounts of goals, conceding 61 combined between them over their 30 league matches in 2025. LA and San Jose games have gone over 2.5 goals in 20 of those 30 matches this season and the over 2.5 is -215. Pairing the total with Austin to win gives us a tasty plus-money Western Conference parlay to finish off the night of MLS action.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 16 shouts.
Sam Surridge +235
Hany Mukhtar +270
Hirving Lozano +300
Myrto Uzuni +230
Osman Bukari +300
Djordje Mihailovic +245
Results
Last Week: -5.85 U
Season: +5.88 U
