Week 17 MLS Picks
While the midweek brought us disappointment from our favorite team, coming home from Q2 Stadium having replenished everything we lost at the books over the weekend was a small consolation prize. Right back to double digits of profit on the season as the halfway mark approaches this Saturday.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 17 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
For the first time this season we’re going to a trio of goals allowed props, starting in the mid-afternoon match on Saturday. NYCFC is coming off of an embarrassing 3-0 home loss to Houston Dynamo in the midweek and now has to travel to Nashville to take on the best home side in the league. Nashville has earned 20 points from their nine home games and they’ve spent half the season without DP center back Walker Zimmerman. They average a touch over two goals per game at home. Our one hangup with this one is that Matt Freese is one of the better keepers in MLS. He’s only conceded 1.13 goals per 90 this season and 1.22 over his 6,354 career MLS minutes. But Nashville are heavily favored to score two or more goals on Saturday, sitting at -155 on Draftkings Sportsbook, so we’re going to ride that at a standard 1x multiplier on Underdog.
Then we’ll go back to Brad Guzan for the third time in five weeks if memory serves. Atlanta just got back-to-back home wins over FC Cincinnati and Orlando City, six crucial points to jolt their season back to life. Now they’re on the road taking on the defending Eastern Conference champion New York Red Bulls. The Five Stripes are tied for the worst road side in MLS with the winless LA Galaxy and give up more than two goals per game away from home this season. We’ve been over Guzan’s struggles this season already so we won’t deep dive, just keep in mind he’s given up two or more goals in five of six away matches this season with the draw against Austin FC as the lone exception. NYRB rotated for thier midweek game so we should see both DPs back in their starting group this weekend. They’re -140 to score two or more so no hesitation attacking Guzan again.
Closing out the Week 17 entry with another familiar face in John Pulskamp. He continues to come through for us consistently, allowing two or more goals in five of eight away matches and ten of 15 overall in 2025. Pulskamp is allowing 1.8 goals per 90 and now travels to face a Houston team that has scored two or more goals in four straight league matches and three of their last four home matches. In the one game they didn’t net a second they were down a man for the majority of the match. Houston is -145 to score two or more goals and as much as we hate backing the orange team, we like advantageous lines even more. Slot in Pulskamp even at the 0.92x multiplier.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.52x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Nicholas Hagen O 1.5 goals allowed (0.88x)
Jonathan Bamba O 1.5 shots attempted (0.97x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +9.71 U
Week 17 Picks
St. Louis City SC
ML +110
While it’s always fun to attack a team with the “new-coach-bounce” theory, that’s not the only reason why we like St. Louis City to get back on track at home this weekend. The San Jose Earthquakes are in town and while they’ve actually been surprisingly solid on the road through seven matches away from home, winning three, it’s always a circus when the Quakes are involved. This game is the first of the matchday, meaning that the visitors will be playing at 11:30am for their body clocks, about 60 hours after their Wednesday night game against LA Galaxy concluded. St. Louis on the other hand did not have a midweek match, so they’ve had a full week of training during their coaching change. We expect their crowd to be as raucous as ever and the home side to come away with all three points.
MIA/CLB O 2.5 + ORL/CHI O 2.5
+101
We’re going to parlay a pair of totals that we bought down from where they’re initially being offered at 3.5. Inter Miami are hosting the Columbus Crew and if you remember back to Wednesday’s article we talked about how often games with Messi go over a 2.5 total. That mark is now up to 28 of the 41 (68.3%) MLS games Messi has appeared in. The Crew are also a high octane offense, with nine of their 16 league games going over a 2.5 total so far this season. These two teams have combined for three or more goals in six of their previous seven meetings.
Staying in the Eastern Conference for the second leg of the parlay with Orlando City and Chicago Fire. Orlando is coming off a brutal loss in the midweek where they led on the road at Atlanta for the majority of the game before conceding twice in the final ten minutes following a Cesar Araujo red card. Five of the last seven Orlando City matches have gone over this number, while five of the last six league matches for Chicago have done the same. Pairing these two totals together gives us a pick at essentially even money.
LA Galaxy
ML +100
Yep, we’re putting in the call. Tonight the LA Galaxy snap the record winless streak to begin an MLS season. They’re at home hosting Real Salt Lake who we just got an up-close look at on Wednesday night at Q2 Stadium. Both of these teams stink, but RSL have only won one of their last nine league matches and have lost seven of their last 12. RSL also have no available DPs, with Diogo Goncalves sidelined for disciplinary reasons. This is the time for the Galaxy, three points and into the win column at even money.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 17 shouts.
Diego Rossi +190
Gerardo Valenzuela +205
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting +145
Jonathan Bamba +475
Giacomo Vrioni +170
Dejan Joveljic +250
Gabriel Pec +190
William Agada +260
Myrto Uzuni +360
Albert Rusnak +195
Results
Last Week: +5.67 U
Season: +11.55 U
