Week 21 MLS Picks
Our hot streak continued in the midweek behind a flurry of goal scoring props. Let’s keep it going over the weekend!
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Wednesday’s games came out Tuesday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 21 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
We’ll begin this weekend’s entry with the battle for lion supremacy in the Eastern Conference with FC Cincinnati visiting Orlando City SC. Roman Celentano is a talented goalkeeper and Cincy has been one of the best road teams in MLS so far this season. But their results away from home may be a bit of a mirage. The Orange and Blue have racked up 20.3 expected goals against in their 11 road matches and that could spell trouble against Orlando City. The home side has scored two or more goals in six of nine home matches this season and Cincinnati are without key defenders like Miles Robinson, Nick Hagglund and Obinna Nwobodo. Orlando is -190 at the books to score two or more goals so we’ll take Celentano to give them up.
We move on to the 2023 MLS MVP as Nashville SC are in the nation’s capital to take on DC United. Hany Mukhtar is averaging 2.1 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season and has gone over this number in 13 of his 19 games this season. When these two teams met earlier in the year, Mukhtar racked up four shots on target, doing his part to contribute to DC United currently clocking in at the second most shots on target conceded per 90 in MLS. We’ll lock this in with the little extra cookie of a 1.03x multiplier
To close out the entry, we’re going back to Osman Bukari. If Underdog is going to keep hanging plus-one multipliers for the speedy Austin FC winger, we’ll keep coming back to the well. Buka has averaged 0.83 shots on target per 90 this season, but he’s been very consistent of late, recording at least one shot on target in seven of his last nine starts. With no Nouhou to match up with him on the left side of Seattle’s defense, we expect Bukari to get in behind the back line on the counter multiple times on Saturday, presenting him plenty of chances to fire a shot on frame.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.16x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Luis Barraza O 1.5 goals allowed
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen O 1.5 goals allowed
Maarten Paes O 1.5 goals allowed
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (1.44x)
Gabriel Pec O 3.5 shots attempted (1.05x)
Marco Pasalic O 2.5 shots attempted (0.86x)
Bruno Damiani O 2.5 shots attempted (0.98x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +19.98 U
Week 21 Picks
NYCFC
ML +130
The Pigeons are headed north of the border on Saturday to take on lowly CF Montreal. The home side has yet to win on their own turf this season through eight games and with five players out and two more listed questionable, their outlook isn’t great to change that this weekend. To be fair, NYCFC has been a poor side away from home this season, winning just once out of eight games on the road so far in 2025. But they’re the deeper, more experienced team and we like getting NYCFC at plus-money against a Montreal side that is only in front of the LA Galaxy in the wooden spoon race.
Orlando City SC
ML +100
After successfully rolling with FC Cincinnati in the midweek we’re going to target them on Saturday night. They’re on the road taking on Orlando City in the “battle of the lions” (no clue if there’s an actual name for this rivalry) and will be noticeably shorthanded. Both Miles Robinson and Nick Hagglund remain out on the back line, while Obinna Nwobodo got injured on Wednesday and will also miss this match. On top of that, Sergio Santos and Yuya Kubo are also listed out, while Luca Orellano is questionable with an ankle issue. Orlando has historically been a strong home side and have a +7 goal differential there in 2025, while Cincy has given up a massive 20.3 xGA in 11 road games this season. We’ll take Orlando City to win at even money.
St. Louis City SC
Win Or Draw -105
Always love a chance to go against the orange team and Week 21 presents us with a place to attack Houston. Since firing Olof Mellberg, St. Louis City hasn’t experienced a miraculous turn in results, but they have been playing more open on both ends of the field. They’ve scored eight of their 19 goals for the season over the last four games. The Dynamo on the other hand will be without Jack McGlynn once again due to international duty and it has been ugly without him this season. Austin fans will remember how toothless Houston was in first half the Open Cup match between these two back in May, then how McGlynn came on at the half and completely flipped the script. Since he’s been out out this current Gold Cup break, the Dynamo have lost 3-1 at home to Montreal and then to Minnesota United on the road by an identical scoreline in the midweek. So we’re going to take the new look St. Louis City SC side on the double chance near even money to get a result in H-Town tonight.
Austin FC
ML +390
ZG gave out the Austin FC double chance on the Double Chance Pod with our good buddies Tim and Nate on Thursday evening. Wanted to mention those fellas because they’re a fantastic resource if you’re looking to expand your MLS betting content schedule and provide a great baseline to start off your matchday odds shopping. But for our picks in The North End, we’re going with the full three points for everyone’s favorite team. Even the surprise Myrto Uzuni hamstring injury isn’t slowing down our Verde enthusiasm in this one. With Seattle’s back line woes, there’s no way that ATX should be nearly four-to-one to win in this spot, so we’re taking the value. Austin FC has the sixth most road wins in the Western Conference with three, and we have them recording their fourth tonight on the rare chance to play on natural grass at Lumen Field.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 21 shouts.
Kelvin Yeboah +185
Evander +235
Marco Pasalic +185
Hannes Wolf +225
Petar Musa +195
Joao Klauss +225
Simon Becher +370
Willy Agada +225
Osman Bukari +550
Robert Taylor +550
Jon Gallagher +950
Gabriel Pec +245
Joseph Paintsil +255
Results
Last Week: +7.41 U
Season: +30.19 U
