Week 22 MLS Picks

Written By The North End Pod

Our near month-long win streak came to an end last weekend, but we didn’t take on too much water. We’re still up nearly 50 units overall on the season and a busy July lies ahead.

Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!

The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 22 picks.

Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week

Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!

With Inter Miami out of the Club World Cup, it’s time to go back to the GOAT. While it remains to be seen if Lionel Messi will make the trip north of the border to take on CF Montreal on Saturday, this line is way too tasty to pass up if he does, even at the 0.87x multiplier. Messi is averaging 2.42 shots on target per 90 minutes in MLS this season and 2.3 shots on target per 90 over his Inter Miami tenure (~3k minutes). He’s over this number in 12 of his 13 MLS appearances this season and with Miami in need of a victory, sitting just one point above ninth seeded Chicago Fire, we’re locking in Messi on Saturday night.

After taking the multiplier hit on Messi we’ve got to find some plus-one multiplier options and we’re in luck. There are two props available we’d classify as “old reliables” at this point of the season and the first is going back to the 2022 MLS MVP and taking Hany Mukhtar’s shots on target line. Mukhtar is averaging 1.99 shots on target per 90 minutes in 2025 and he’s over this number in 13 of his 20 appearances this season. But Nashville SC are at home on Saturday evening and that’s been the right side of the split for Mukhtar, recording two or more shots on target in eight of his ten home matches. At the 1.05x multiplier we’ll slot that in next to Messi.

To close out the entry, we’re going back to Evander and making it a trio of shots on target props this weekend. The FC Cincinnati midfielder has been money of late, recording two or more shots on target in four straight appearances. He’s been over this number in ten of his 17 starts in 2025 and is averaging 1.88 shots on target per 90. Cincy and Chicago have already played the first leg of this matchup, with Evander uncorking three shots on target in that match back on April 19. We’ll also be targeting this match at the books, but for now we’ll take the leader of the Lions to round things out on Underdog in Week 22.

Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.7x your entry fee if successful.

We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.

  • Miguel Almiron O 2.5 shots attempted (1.1x)

  • Gabriel Pec O 1.5 shots on target (1.11x)

  • Kristijan Kahlina O 1.5 goals allowed

  • Novak Micovic O 1.5 goals allowed (1.11x)

  • Jonathan Sirois O 1.5 goals allowed

  • Hugo Cuypers O 1.5 shots on target (1.45x)

  • Denis Bouanga O 1.5 shots on target (1.03x)

  • Andre Blake O 1.5 goals allowed

  • Carlos Coronel O 1.5 goals allowed (0.92x)

  • Diego Rossi O 2.5 shots attempted (0.97x)

Results

Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U

Underdog Fantasy (Season): +18.98 U

Week 22 Picks

Minnesota United

ML +140

The article is out a bit early this weekend to squeeze in our Friday picks and we’ll begin in Frisco where Minnesota United is in town to take on 11th seeded FC Dallas. Not only are the Loons a much more talented and cohesive side overall, they also will welcome back multiple starters from international duty in this match, like starting goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair and forward Tani Oluwaseyi. An important match for Minnesota, who are just five points back of the lead in the Western Conference. We’ll back the Loons to pick up all three points against FC Dallas at plus money.

Orlando City SC

ML +140

Orlando have been a bit rocky of late, earning nine points from their last six matches and losing two of their three home games in that stretch. They’re on the road to take on Charlotte FC this weekend, attempting to cling to the top group in the Eastern Conference. The Lions are currently sitting in fifth, just four points back of Columbus, and a matchup against Charlotte could be just what they need to point things back in the right direction after the home loss to Cincy last weekend. Charlotte’s trajectory is pointing straight down, losing nine of their last 11 league matches. Now they’ve sold Patrick Agyemang to Derby County FC in the English Championship and Wilfried Zaha is suspended for yellow card accumulation. With the lack of clear options for the home side to break down the Orlando defense and the visitors being one of the better road sides in the league to this point of the year, we’re taking Orlando to win.

FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire

Over 3.5 (+115)

Next we’ll hit the total in Cincy, who welcome the Fire to town for the second leg of this head-to-head series in 2025. One thing is a near certainty when Chicago is involved this season and that’s multiple goals. There have been a total of 72 goals scored in Fire matches this season, tied with the San Jose Earthquakes for most in MLS. They’ve been especially chaotic when Chicago goes on the road, with 50 goals scored in just ten matches. Eight of those ten games have seen four or more goals scored and there have been at least three goals in all ten. There were also five goals in the first leg between these two this year, so we’ll take the over on the total for plus money.

Austin FC

ML +190

Homer alert! This weekend’s matchup against LAFC isn’t a great one on paper, but this also isn’t your typical LAFC team at the moment. The Black and Gold are limping into this match after an under performance in the Club World Cup group stage and over their last four league games have been shutout at home by a depleted Vancouver side and only managed two points from back to back games against the two worst teams in MLS. Austin FC hasn’t been much better, but they have done fine against LAFC over the last few seasons, earning five points against the Black and Gold over the last three MLS matchups between the two, including a 1-0 ATX win back in March. ATX is coming off an embarrassing showing against Seattle last Saturday night and should have both Osman Bukari and Myrto Uzuni back for this match. We’ll take our favorite team at nearly two to one to win before the first ever post match fireworks show at Q2 Stadium on Saturday night.

Goal Scorers 

Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 22 shouts.

  • Dejan Joveljic +185

  • Edier Ocampo +650

  • Marco Pasalic +215

  • Lionel Messi +110

  • Hugo Cuypers +150

  • Miguel Almiron +220

  • Hany Mukhtar +170

  • Myrto Uzuni +320

  • Osman Bukari +380

  • Leonardo Campana +235

  • Chicho Arango +150

  • Diego Rossi +235

Results

Last Week: -3 U

Season: +27.19 U

The North End Pod
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