Week 23 MLS Picks
We got back on the profit train last weekend, once again thanks to the goal props. Still hovering around 50 units to the good overall for the season, it’s time to keep building.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 23 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
As you may have guessed from this week’s cover boy, we’re pushing chips back in on Myrto Uzuni after a lengthy hiatus from the article for the Albanian. This is also the first time we’re going to a goal prop in the Underdog entry since Week 1. Our thought process is simple. With Brandon Vazquez’s unfortunate ACL injury in Tuesday night’s US Open Cup match against San Jose, Uzuni will now take over a solo role at the top of Austin’s attack. He will also presumably take over penalty kick duties, giving him an additional avenue to rippling the net on Saturday against New England as he did on Tuesday in extra time. Uzuni is sixth in MLS in NPG - NPxG, indicating he’s due to end his MLS scoring drought at some point. We think it’s this weekend.
We’re going to round out the Week 23 entry with a pair of goals allowed props. First we go to the Windy City, where San Diego FC is in town to take on the Fire. Chicago is certainly improved this year over what we’ve come to expect from the club in recent seasons, but one thing they still do is give up goals. Chris Brady has allowed 2.02 goals per 90 minutes this season and you can see that factored in at the books, as Chicago is -145 to give up two or more goals. San Diego on the other hand has scored two or more goals in 14 of their 21 games this season. They’ve also scored two or more in seven of their ten road matches this season, including three straight, locking in Brady as our second prop.
To close out the entry, we’re going back to ol’ reliable. To be fair Pulskamp has been solid of late, giving up just one goal in each of Sporting KC’s last three matches and stopping 18 of the 21 shots on target he’s faced in that span. Even with the uptick in form, Pulskamp is still conceding 1.82 goals per 90 minutes this season. Now they’ll host Seattle on Saturday night, who is a more scary team on paper than what they’ve put out there this season. But SKC is also over performing their xGA at unsustainably high levels, as they have the most xGA in MLS by more than 6.5 goals! In the Opta “Expected Table,” Sporting KC should be the current wooden spoon holders. Even with that “good fortune,” Pulskamp has conceded twice in 12 of his 21 games this season, including six of ten at home. We think he does it again here.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.92x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (1.17x)
Leo Campana O 2.5 shots attempted (1.07x)
Chicho O 3.5 shots attempted (1.09x)
Maxime Crepeau O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +17.98 U
Week 23 Picks
Orlando CIty SC ML + CIN/CLB BTTS
+114
We’re going to start off our weekend at the books with a two-leg parlay of 6:30 starts. Orlando City SC is playing host to last place CF Montreal and are the second largest favorites on the slate (their -255 is only behind LAFC’s -265 at home against FC Dallas). The Lions haven’t lost to Montreal at home since September of 2021 and we think that streak extends here. Then our second leg will be both teams to score (BTTS) in the “Hell is Real” derby between FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew. This heated matchup has seen both teams score in eight of the last 11 meetings and five of the last six times they’ve played in Cincinnati. Pairing these two lines together gives us a nice plus-money parlay to jump right into the action on Saturday night.
Minnesota United
ML -105
The Loons will host San Jose this weekend and both teams were in action on Tuesday night in the US Open Cup. Cristian Espinoza will be out for the Earthquakes along with Paul Marie and Dejuan Jones. Minnesota on the other hand has no significant injuries to report and have been strong at home this season, with 18 points from their ten games and a +8 goal differential. This one is simple, we’re backing the better team at home with minimal juice. Loons to win.
Austin FC
ML +100
Homer alert! Maybe we’re just itching to get some action down on our favorite team after last Saturday’s postponement. Maybe we’re huffing the Grade-A North End hopium again. But ATX coming home after an emotional victory on Tuesday night against a middling New England side who had to play Lionel Messi and Inter Miami on Wednesday? For even money, we’re in.
LAFC ML + LA Galaxy ML
+123
We’ll close the night with a double dose of Los Angeles. LAFC host FC Dallas on Saturday and as we mentioned above, are the biggest favorites on the board this matchday. Dallas have never won a match at BMO Stadium, with five defeats and a draw all-time on the road against LAFC. The Galaxy on the other hand are still last place in the Supporter’s Shield standings but have had improved results of late, earning eight points from their last eight games. They also host DC United, one of two teams with a worse goal differential (-22) than the Galaxy (-20). They’re the third biggest favorites this weekend and pairing the two LA teams gives us a slight plus-money nightcap.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 23 shouts.
Evander +170
Luca Orellano +390
Hany Mukhtar +215
Anders Dreyer +170
Jordan Morris +175
Myrto Uzuni +185
Gabriel Pec +155
To Score 2 Or More Goals
Myrto Uzuni +1100 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: +3.55 U
Season: +30.74 U
