Week 27 MLS Picks
We’ve been scorching hot over the summer months, with four straight profitable matchdays. After the Leagues Cup break to begin the month of August, MLS play returns this weekend. Let’s keep it going!
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 27 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
With this weekend’s slate spread out over two days, we’re going to stick with three picks from the games we have injury reports for in our main entry. We’ll begin with Christian Benteke, who was last seen ushering a late consolation penalty kick past Brad Stuver to cut the Austin FC lead to 4-2 in second half stoppage time two Saturday’s ago. Benteke is still one of the most prolific goal scorers in MLS and with that comes shot attempts. We’re going to take his shots on target line, which is set at 1.5 with a massive 1.35x multiplier. Benteke battled injury through May and June, but has recovered enough to play his first full 90 since May 10th against Austin two weeks ago. He’s averaging 1.95 shots on target per 90 in 2025 and has been over this number in six of nine games this season when playing 81 or more minutes.
Then we’ll go back to an old reliable with the 2022 MLS MVP. Hany Mukhtar has led Nashville to 47 points through 25 league games this season, the third best record in MLS. This weekend they will make the 300 mile trip to take on St. Louis City SC. Mukhtar is averaging 1.92 shots on target per 90 this season and is over in 16 of his 25 MLS appearances. As an extra cookie, St. Louis City SC allows the most shots on target per game to opponents this season. At a 1.02x multiplier, Hany once again finds himself in the main entry.
Closing things out with a rested Denis Bouanga taking on the Chicago Fire. After being eliminated from Leagues Cup contention early, LAFC rotated on Wednesday night and sat Bouanga out from the game completely. He’s averaged 1.79 shots on target per 90 this season and is over in 11 of 19 league games when playing 82 minutes or more this season. Bouanga is also over this number in three of his last four league games. On top of that, LAFC has made a global splash over the last two weeks with their league record signing of Son Hueng-min from Tottenham. With fresh legs and a new elite attacking partner who is reportedly available for selection on Saturday, we’ll ride with Bouanga at a plus-one multiplier.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 8.5x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Chicho O 3.5 shots attempted (0.9x)
Jonathan Bond O 1.5 goals allowed (1.08x)
Theodore Ku-Dipietro O 0.5 shots on target
Luis Barraza O 1.5 goals allowed (0.87x)
Daniel O 1.5 goals allowed
Brad Guzan O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): +2.02 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +22 U
Week 27 Picks
LAFC
DNB +115
LAFC bowed out of Leagues Cup in Phase One and played their last match against Tigres on Wednesday. But the Black and Gold rotated in that 2-1 win, even sitting Denis Bouanga out of the match completely. They should be just fine when it comes to fatigue, even without the services of Aaron Long and Jeremy Ebobisse (who exited early due to injury on Wednesday). Chicago are an improved side this season, but they’ve had some intense reverse home/road splits, earning just 13 points from their 11 home games in 2025. We’ll take LAFC on the draw-no-bet line at plus money in this spot.
Austin fC
ML +110
Houston comes out of the Leagues Cup break in poor form, losing seven of their last ten matches across all competitions. Austin FC is on the opposite end of the form spectrum, winning four of their last six league matches with a US Open Cup win over San Jose in the midst of that stretch. Austin has defeated Houston six out of seven historical meetings at Q2 Stadium and we’re backing the home side to add to that tally.
Minnesota United + FC Cincinnati
ML Parlay +171
We’ve got a five game Sunday slate on this matchday and while we have to wait until Saturday afternoon to get the official injury reports for those matches, we aren’t hesitating to pull the trigger on this two-team money line parlay. Our rationale is simple here. The Loons play host to a Rapids team that just shipped their best player, Djordje Mihailovic, to Toronto FC. There are rumors that some South American clubs are sniffing around DP striker Rafael Navarro. Even without those moves, Minnesota would be an attractive option. With Colorado shorthanded, we’re windmill slamming in the home team. Then we’ll pair the Loons with the Knifey Lions for a similar reason. Cincy is hosting Charlotte FC, who will be without Pep Biel due to injury after selling Patrick Agyemang earlier in the window. The home team rotated heavily in their meaningless Leagues Cup finale and they should have fresh legs to hold serve at home.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 27 shouts.
Leo Campana +150
Christian Benteke +175
Emmanuel Latte Lath +180
Hany Mukhtar +190
Denis Bouanga +140
Myrto Uzuni +200
Osman Bukari +295
Hirving Lozano +180
Chicho +150
Luca Orellano +275
Diogo Goncalves +320
Rodrigo De Paul +450
Danny Musovski +205
Gabriel Pec +220
Results
Last Week: +3.45 U
Season: +52.35 U
