Week 28 MLS Picks
Our streak of four straight profitable matchdays narrowly came to an end last weekend, but we’re still feeling great about where we’re at. We’ve got a full slate of games ahead of us this weekend, time to get new win streak started.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 28 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
We haven’t hesitated to air our grievances with Underdog Fantasy in this article when we’ve had them. You guessed it, we’re back to starting the entry with a complaint! The MLS offerings at UD for this weekend are straight up bad. There is very little value to be had and there are some lines posted that are incredibly insulting to any user who has an ounce of knowledge about this league. Without wasting any more of your time whining, we’ll just leave you an example from the offerings for Austin FC vs FC Dallas. Brendan Hines-Ike has taken seven shots across his 1,889 minutes this season for an average of 0.33 shots per 90 minutes. Yet his shots attempted prop is set at 0.5 with a 0.89x multiplier! What the hell is that? It’s laughable, really. Our hypothesis for this sudden tightening from Underdog is that they’re fearful of the increased attention on soccer props this weekend with the return of the English Premier League. Hopefully they return things to a more playable level going forward.
That said, we have combed the board for acceptable options this weekend and have found enough to roll out a card. This week’s entry will be a trio of goals allowed props and we’ll begin in Charlotte, where Real Salt Lake is in town for a inter-conference clash. While Rafael Cabral has been quite strong for RSL in 2025, conceding just 1.28 goals per 90, Charlotte has been extremely strong at home. The books are reflecting this, as Charlotte are -160 to score two or more goals. They have done so in 18 of their 28 games this year across all comps, including 10 of their 12 home matches. RSL has also been over performing their xGA on the road this season, with just 20 goals conceded on 25.3 xGA.
Then we’ll move to Q2 Stadium, where Austin FC look to continue their goal scoring form. Those are welcome words for fans of the Verde and Black, who suffered through a first half of the MLS season that saw Austin FC score multiple goals just once across 17 games. Since that halfway point of the season, ATX has scored two or more goals in six of their last eight games across all comps and in three straight MLS matches. Michael Collodi will be filling in for the injured Maarten Paes and while the homegrown did quite well in the 2-0 shutout victory over Portland last week, he represents a step down in quality at the position. FC Dallas have also given up two or more goals in eight of their 13 road matches this season and in three of their last four trips to Q2 Stadium.
We close out our trio of goals allowed props on Sunday Night Soccer. Picking on the first place team in the Western Conference feels counter intuitive on the surface, but we think this is a good spot to go at Dos Santos. The surprisingly successful expansion side will be on the road to take on their in-state rivals, the San Jose Earthquakes. One thing the Quakes know how to do is score the ball, with their 49 goals for second only to San Diego’s 50 in the Western Conference. The Quakes have scored two or more goals in 10 of their 16 home matches across all comps this season and are -165 to do so on Sunday night at the books. This game has the third highest implied total on the weekend and we’re going to lean into that and back the home side.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Sean Johnson O 1.5 goals allowed
Pedro De la Vega O 0.5 shots on goal (0.97x)
Brad Guzan O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): +1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +21 U
Week 28 Picks
Charlotte FC
ML -110
Charlotte FC is one of the hottest teams in the league and have reeled off five straight wins in MLS play, vaulting themselves within three points of a top four spot in the Eastern Conference. They will continue to be without Pep Biel due to injury, but the visitors will be without their talisman midfielder as well as Diego Luna is suspended due to a very questionable (and apparently non-reviewable) red card shown in last week’s match. Charlotte has been one of the best home teams in MLS this year, with nine wins in their 12 games at Bank of America Stadium. We’ll take them to record their tenth victory on Saturday evening.
Austin fC
ML -105
After snatching a draw from the jaws of victory late on against Houston Dynamo last weekend, the Verde and Black are back at Q2 Stadium to take on their other Texas rival. FC Dallas will of course be without Lucho Acosta after he was sold to Fluminense two weeks ago and they’ll also be missing goalkeeper Maarten Paes to injury. Austin FC should be hungry to right the ship after the disappointment against Houston and we (shocking, we know) think they’re deserving favorites here. ATX to win.
FC Cincinnati
ML +150
The nightcap for our Saturday MLS slate is a revenge spot for FC Cincinnati’s All-Star midfielder Evander, who famously forced his way out of Portland last offseason. One of the league’s best players, Evander made it no secret that he had major issues with the Timbers ownership and he gets his chance to shove their face in it this weekend. Portland is also in a tough position, with new DP winger Kristoffer Velde unlikely to be fully fit for this match and U22 midfielder Santiago Moreno forcing his way to South America last week. We’re backing the Knifey Lions, who are the best road team in MLS so far this season, to take all three points at Providence Park.
Nashville SC
ML +190
We’ve got a three game Sunday slate this weekend that begins with Nashville SC visiting the Pigeons of NYCFC. Though Hany Mukhtar and friends have stumbled the last two matchdays, with road losses to San Diego FC and St. Louis City SC, we aren’t overreacting to the recent form. Nashville is one of the best teams in MLS and had won seven of their previous eight games against MLS competition prior to the 1-0 loss to San Diego (who is the top team in the Western Conference). To be getting them at nearly two-to-one in this spot feels like good value, Nashville to win.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 28 shouts.
Gabriel Pec +275
Joseph Paintsil +290
Son Heung-Min +175
Denis Bouanga +130
Leo Campana +225
Idan Toklomati +195
Christian Benteke +145
Pedro De la Vega +400
Myrto Uzuni +165
Evander +185
Hany Mukhtar +240
Jack McGlynn +475
Lawrence Ennali +475
To Score 2 Or More
Evander +1100
Results
Last Week: -3.75 U
Season: +48.6 U
