Week 28 MLS picks
We were able to squeak out a minor profit at the books last weekend and we’ve strung together a few positive performances in a row now. Now we’re beginning a jumbo-sized international break that will keep a handful of key players out this weekend. Just in case they aren’t all listed on the injury report on Friday, here’s a link to the league’s list of call-ups.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 28 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Unfortunately, Underdog Fantasy has decided to exit the MLS prop pick’em market at this time. So we’re going to pick things back up on PrizePicks for the time being. If you want to play along with us, you can sign up for PrizePicks through this link.
Four straight pick’em misses have us in the red in this section of the article for the first time this season. We remain undeterred and move forward with a trio of fantasy score props. Mateusz Bogusz gets a home matchup against Sporting KC and has been in great form of late, benefitting from the departure of Jack McGlynn and has gone over this number in three of the four matches since McGlynn was transferred (and his one miss was by 0.65 fantasy points). Facundo Torres has also been in outstanding form relative to this number, going over in four straight league matches before coming up short against FC Dallas on the road last weekend. New England’s Gil-centric offense buoys his fantasy floor as well and he’s been over this number in four of his last five league game.
Of course, recency bias isn’t what you should be standing on for your pick’em entries. But all three of these players will get boosts to their fantasy floor due to the absences around them. We mentioned McGlynn leaving for Bogusz, but Torres will also see a nice boost with both Myrto Uzuni and Joseph Rosales on international duty. Both players are options to take free kicks, leaving Torres the more likely option on set pieces (though Zan Kolmanic will likely take some corner kicks in this one). Gil will also see a boost, not just to his set piece opportunities but his threat on goal should also be elevated without the likes of Jack Harrison, Dor Turgeman and Peyton Miller. Gil also remains the Rev’s penalty taker.
Using the standard payout selection on PrizePicks this three-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.0x your entry fee if successful.
Results
Last Week: -1.0 U
Season: -0.87 U
Week 28 Picks
Orlando City SC
Double Chance +165
The injury report is playing a huge factor in all of our picks this week given the massive amount of absences around the league with MLS playing through the first portion of the two-week international break. While Orlando City will be without a number of normal starters in this one, so will the Union. For us the absences on the Philly side of things, which include Andre Blake, Cavan Sullivan and Neil Pierre, are more detrimental to their team’s chances on Saturday night. The Lions have been strong in league play of late, earning 13 points from their last six matches. The odds are just a bit high here for Orlando to bring a result back home, so we’ll take them on the double chance.
Charlotte FC
ML +110
There are a handful of teams on the injury report that make your eyes go wide when you see the sheer length of absences in store this weekend. Chicago Fire qualify, listing ten players on their injury report including international duty for a number of key players like Robert Lewandowski, Puso Dithejane, Robin Lod, Chris Brady and Noah Allen. Charlotte on the other hand doesn’t have nearly the same quality missing and are at home in this spot, sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference coming into the weekend. Not only are Charlotte strong at home with 25 points from their 13 matches (third best in the Eastern Conference), but they’re also in great form, with 18 points from their current eight-match unbeaten streak. Charlotte to win at home at near even money.
St. Louis City SC
ML -110
Very similar case here for St. Louis City SC, with the exception that they’re on the road on Saturday, which is the only reason we’re getting a number near even money. New York Red Bulls have only recently pulled out of a post-World Cup break tailspin, with back-to-back 1-0 wins over Columbus Crew and NYCFC. Prior to that they had earned just five points from their previous nine matches. They’re also without nine players due to international duty, including Julian Hall and Adri Mehmeti, along with three other questionable tags. St. Louis on the other hand has only one call up for Damion Downs and outside of that are rolling with the same squad that has fueled their meteoric rise up the Western Conference table, currently sitting tied for second place in the Western Conference. We’ll take them to get the job done in New Jersey on Saturday night.
Houston Dynamo To Win + Nashville SC To Win
Parlay +113
Less parlay-centric this matchday but we’re still going to sneak a pair of favorites in before we’re done. The Dynamo get Sporting KC at home on Saturday night and are in a similar spot to St. Louis City, as Houston has no international call ups listed. They’re actually one of the two teams tied for second in the Western Conference with St. Louis at the moment and should be able to comfortably earn all three points in this spot against the Wooden Spoon favorites.
To bring the juice down we’ll look to the Supporter’s Shield leaders in Nashville SC, who are hosting Toronto FC on Saturday night. While Nashville will be without the likes of stud goalkeeper Brian Schwake and defensive midfielder Patrick Yazbek, they should still roll out their fearsome foursome of attacking options in Sam Surridge, Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza and Elias Saad. With no Djordje Mihailovic, Walker Zimmerman or Richie Laryea (among others) for Toronto, we’re happy to take Nashville to win. Pairing these two moneyline winners gives us a slight plus-money parlay.
INter Miami
ML +120
The lone Sunday match on the slate once again brings us to Lionel Messi and Co. While the GOAT is in fact going to be on international duty with his native Argentina this window for a retirement ceremony, reports are that Messi and Rodrigo De Paul will both stick around to take on Columbus Crew on the road on Sunday Night Soccer. Miami has strangely been miles better away from Nu Stadium this year and are actually the best road team in MLS to this point of the year, with 27 points from their 13 matches. We’ll take them to win in this spot to close out the weekend.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 28 shouts.
Daryl Dike +210
Nicolas Fernandez Mercau +205
Mateusz Bogusz +180
Owen Wolff +800
Santiago Moreno +250
Brandon Vazquez +225
Morgan Whittaker +250
Timo Werner +200
Kristoffer Velde +240
To Score Two Or More Goals
Brandon Vazquez +1100 (0.5 U)
Morgan Whittaker +1800 (0.5 U)
To Assist
Zan Kolmanic +600
To Score Or Assist
Andre Luiz +280
Santiago Moreno +140
Joaquin Pereyra +150
Paxten Aaronson +170
Kristoffer Velde +145
To Score Or Assist Two Or More Goals
Santiago Moreno +850
Joaquin Pereyra +950
Paxten Aaronson +1100
Kristoffer Velde +850
Results
Last Week: +0.25 U
2026 Season: +12.29 U
