Week 33 MLS Picks
We’ve strung together another three-week streak of profits here in The North End after the goal scorers came through for us last weekend. After the midweek US Open Cup madness, we’re ready to attack this weekend’s full slate of games.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 33 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
As we speculated last week, Underdog returned to their normal cadence posting the shots attempted and shots on target options on the board this week (though there’s still fewer options per game than usual).
We start in South Florida, where DC United are in town riding a four-game unbeaten streak that has them a point above last place CF Montreal in the Eastern Conference and four points clear of LA Galaxy in the wooden spoon race. Christian Benteke’s lines are juicy everywhere this weekend after he’s been surprisingly cold through the last month, so we can’t pass this one up at basically a standard 1x multiplier. The former Liverpool striker is averaging 3.57 shot attempts per 90 this season and has taken three or more shots in 10 of the 14 league games that he’s played 80 minutes or more in 2025. He’s also played the full 90 in four straight, so he’s in good physical form. Couple that with a matchup against Inter Miami’s leaky defense and we feel good about going to the big man in the 6:30 window.
Then we look to the nightcap on Saturday and pick on Novak Micovic for what feels like the 10th time this season. He’s now giving up 1.94 goals against per 90 minutes this season and the Galaxy are conceding exactly two per match in 2025. They host FC Cincinnati who, despite being the largest beneficiary of xG over performance in MLS, are in the thick of it for the Supporter’s Shield. They re-acquired Brenner on loan in the summer transfer window to boost an already lethal attack and should have no problem hanging multiple goals on Carson this weekend. At a plus-one multiplier, this one feels great.
Closing it out with another familiar prop on Sunday Night Soccer. Osman Bukari is averaging 0.87 shots on target per 90 this season, which by itself would already make his shots on target prop attractive at a 0.99x multiplier. But he’s also fallen into a nice groove during the second half of the season, recording at least one shot on target in 13 of his last 17 starts. He may get subbed before the final whistle against the Sounders due to playing 96 minutes in the US Open Cup semifinal on Wednesday night, but with four days between games he should remain in the starting unit.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.11x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Hirving Lozano O 3.5 shots attempted (1.05x)
Jayden Hibbert O 1.5 goals allowed
Joe Willis O. 1.5 goals allowed
Sam Surridge O 2.5 shots attempted (1.06x)
Christian Benteke O 0.5 goals (1.61x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +21.1 U
Week 32 Picks
Sporting KC
ML +210
We know what you’re thinking. Sporting KC on the money line? Against Vancouver?? To be honest, we’re just as surprised as you are, but let’s talk through this together.
The Whitecaps are staring down the barrel of a four-games-in-ten-days stretch of their schedule, with the two games following this one being Cascadia rivalry matches at home against Portland on Wednesday and on the road at Seattle next Saturday. Then they host Atletico Ottawa in the Canadian Championship Final on September 30th. They just played their Canadian Championship semifinal on Tuesday as well, so we could see some additional rotation on the road here against lowly SKC. On top of that, the ‘Caps have listed eight players out on Friday’s injury report, including Thomas Muller and Brian White. They also will be without Tristan Blackmon, who will be sidelined through the end of the regular season with a knee sprain, joining Ranko Veselinovic on the bench. With their two best attacking players (not including Ryan Gauld, who is cleared for contact but not game action) and both starting center backs absent, this presents a value opportunity for the home side.
The Whitecaps also have some pretty intense home/road splits. They’re the best home side in the Western Conference, with 30 points from 14 matches and a +20 goal differential, with 36 scored and 16 conceded. They aren’t “bad” on the road, but have scored just 18 goals while conceding 15 times in an identical 14 games. They have also won just once on the road since June 29th. Sporting will be without Daniel Salloi, but have welcomed DP midfielder Manu Garcia back to the lineup. His presence should help provide an increased number of chances for DP striker and golden boot contender Dejan Joveljic against a shorthanded Vancouver defense. We probably shouldn’t have to talk this much about a play, but we’ll take the shot at +210 that SKC can hold serve at home.
FC CinCinnati
ML +150
We’ve been picking on the Knifey Lions a bit of late, targeting their massive xG overperformance. But that’s not the angle here. Cincy is on the road to take on the wooden spoon leading LA Galaxy. After securing a CCC spot for 2026 with their third place finish in Leagues Cup, the Galaxy have absolutely nothing left to play for. On the other side, FC Cincinnati is just two points back of the Supporter’s Shield lead, making the difference in motivation on Saturday night an important factor. Being able to get Cincy at plus money here feels great, so we’ll back the Evander-led attack with his new (and also old) toy Brenner up front paired with Kevin Denkey. Knifey Lions to win.
ATX/SEA O 2.5
-125
Sunday Night Soccer comes to Austin this weekend and both the home side and the visiting Sounders are coming off emotional midweek games, especially the Verde and Black. While Nico Estévez likes to play a more conservative style, especially against top teams, it’s been multiple months since ATX kept a clean sheet. Seven of their last nine games across all competitions have gone over this number. Seattle have an even friendlier track record relative to this line, with 13 of their last 15 matches in all comps seeing three or more goals scored. With some rotation expected for both teams in this one and their attention potentially elsewhere (Austin hosts the US Open Cup final in less than two weeks, while Seattle host two Cascadia rivalry games in the next seven days), we’ll take this one to have at least three goals.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 33 shouts.
Milan Iloski +205
Tomas Chancalay +330
Hirving Lozano +195
Christian Benteke +250
Djordje Mihailovic +295
Hany Mukhtar +240
Bongokuhle Hlongwane +450
Jonathan Bamba +550
Paxton Aaronson +270
Kristoffer Velde +300
Brenner +245
Myrto Uzuni +235
Osman Bukari +310
Results
Last Week: +3.3 U
Season: +51.63 U
