Week 7 MLS Picks
After a nice week coming out of the international break, MLS is hitting busy season with the continuation of CCC, the entry of 16 MLS teams into the U.S. Open Cup this week and some midweek league action ahead. Like our beloved Austin FC, we’re looking to continue our positive momentum.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 7 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have a pick’em entry for you to tail if your heart desires. This week we’re playing on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
Attacking the defense that is currently setting the MLS record for clean sheets to begin a season might feel counter intuitive on the surface. But we don’t need Kristoffer Velde to score (though you may see him pop up in the goal scorers later on) in this instance, we just need him to shoot the ball. That’s what he does best. It’s still a small sample size for the 26-year-old Norwegian, but across his 1,158 MLS minutes since arriving in the summer window last year Velde averages 3.42 shot attempts per 90 minutes. With LAFC’s second CCC quarterfinal leg against Cruz Azul looming in the midweek, we could see some rotation for the home side.
Then we’ll take a rare “lower” option on a goals allowed prop, which is maybe even more surprising that we’re backing the defending wooden spoon winners. On the road no less! But the DC United defense, despite coming off a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of FC Dallas, has been solid this season. Those four goals account for half of the concessions by this backline in 2026 meaning that even after that butt whooping, DC is conceding just 1.33 goals per game, a far cry from the 1.94 per game they gave up in 2025. New England are -145 at the books to score fewer than two goals, so we’ll back DC to regain their defensive form in this spot.
Closing it out with another goals allowed option but going back to the trusty “higher” here. St. Louis City SC are in Frisco on Saturday night, where FC Dallas are -145 to score two or more goals. They’ve been strong at Toyota Stadium to this point of 2026, recording two or more goals in three of their four home matches. Historically, St. Louis has struggled in North Texas, conceding at least two goals in all three previous games they’ve played at Toyota Stadium. With Petar Musa on fire, Logan Farrington right behind him and Santiago Moreno working his way into this team, we’re backing our rivals to the north to put multiple goals past DP goalkeeper Roman Burki.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 40% profit boost token dropped in users accounts on Friday) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 8.42x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games, want to make additional entries or one of the given options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Ivan Jaime O 2.5 shots attempted (1.04x)
Marco Pasalic O 2.5 shots attempted (1.19x)
Matt Freese O 1.5 goals allowed (0.83x)
Zack Steffen O 1.5 goals allowed (1.06x)
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (1.25x)
Mateusz Bogusz O 2.5 shots attempted (1.08x)
Lionel Messi O 2.5 shots on target (1.02x)
Emmanuel Latte Lath O 2.5 shots attempted (1.08x)
Results
Last Week: -1.0 U
Season: +1.92 U
Week 7 Picks
Austin FC
ML +110
The last time we backed Austin FC in 2026 was Week 2, when they squeaked out a 1-0 home victory over DC United. This Saturday they’ve got another afternoon match on tap, this time against the struggling LA Galaxy, who are coming of a midweek CCC fixture in the elevation of Toluca. The visitors will also be without Joseph Paintsil and Jakob Glesnes, while Austin is expected to see the return of Facundo Torres and Dani Pereira. We’ll take the Verde and Black to win and get the match day started right.
CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union
O 2.5 -140
Kicking off at the same time as Austin and LA, we’ll go north of the border for a little double afternoon delight in Week 7. Both of these teams are off to horrid starts, largely because of lackluster defenses that have combined to give up 28 goals across the 12 games played by these two sides. This is more juice than we typically lay in the picks, but it feels quite strong considering the state of these two clubs at the moment.
Inter Miami Win + O 2.5
-145 (2U)
Our first two unit play of the season takes us to Nu Stadium. For the fans sake, we hope they’ve improved the concession offerings since we were in the house last week. For our bankroll’s sake, we hope Inter Miami is ready to use a disappointing draw against Austin FC as fuel to get their first win in their new digs. They’ll welcome New York Red Bulls to town, who have been one of the more confusing teams to begin the season. They’ve got three wins from six and a pair of electric young players making headlines, but they’ve also lost 3-0 to CF Montreal, drawn Toronto FC and got rocked shorthanded 6-1 in Charlotte before the international break. Inter Miami are, rightfully, big favorites in this one. Five of their six league matches have seen at least three goals this season, after 33 of their 40 league fixtures (including playoffs) did so in 2025. So we’ll pair the home team to win with the over 2.5 in the match to bring the juice down to a more manageable level and wait to see if Messi and Co. turn things up a notch on Saturday night.
Houston Dynamo
ML +210
We hate backing the Orange team, especially on the road. But with Houston taking on a Colorado Rapids side that is going to be missing multiple starters on Saturday after last weekend’s debacle in Toronto, this price feels strong enough to take the swing. The ‘Pids will be without Rafael Navarro, Reggie Cannon, Conor Ronan, Ted Ku-Dipietro and Jackson Travis for this one, while the Dynamo are expected to welcome back Jack McGlynn to their midfield. Houston doesn’t always win when they travel to the elevation just outside of Denver, but they have only lost to the Rapids twice on the road since July 2017. With Colorado’s best goal scoring threat suspended, we’ll hold our nose to pull the trigger on it. Houston to win.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 7 shouts.
Josh Sargent +170
Evander +225
Christian Ramirez +205
Facundo Torres +245
Ivan Jaime +360
Kristoffer Velde +295
German Berterame +145
Louis Munteanu +300
Liel Abada +320
Emmanuel Latte Lath +300
Mateusz Bogusz +390
Lawrence Ennali +600
Martin Ojeda +285
Marco Pasalic +360
Results
Last Week: +5.15 U
2026 Season: -21.19 U
