Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Shell Energy Stadium - Houston, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Well, well, well, if it isn’t our little brothers to the south. Relative to the rest of their normal Western Conference opponents, Austin FC has dominated Houston in this head-to-head matchup over the first four seasons, recording a 7W-4L-0D record. Austin also has a leg up on the all-time aggregate scoring with 15 goals for and 14 conceded against the Dynamo. ATX has won three of the last four meetings between the two clubs.
The last time we saw Houston was back in September of last season, where the despicable dirty flopper, Coco Carasquilla netted a bicycle kick goal in the 84th minute to secure a 1-0 Houston victory and all but eliminate Austin FC from playoff contention. The win was their first positive result of any kind at Q2 Stadium.
Houston dynamo Recent Form
Houston’s season thus far can be described with one simple word, ugly. It’s been rough sailing for the Dynamo to start the 2025 campaign, as they sit on just seven points from their nine games and boast a negative six goal differential to boot.
But as we do in The North End when we encounter a team for the first time in a season, a quick history lesson. The Dynamo were founded in 2005 and played their first game in the 2006 MLS season. The team was not an expansion club, as the owners relocated the team from San Jose, bringing the roster and staff with them to the Space City.
Houston saw tremendous early success, thanks in large part to the player personnel they inherited from San Jose, a team that finished 2nd, 2nd, 7th and 1st in the Supporter’s Shield standings over the four seasons prior to the move. With that top-end roster already in place, Houston won back-to-back MLS Cups in their first two seasons. San Jose fans obviously felt slighted since their team had been ripped from their city and then went on to win those two championships immediately after. Mind you, there were only 12 teams in the entire league at this time.
After some early playoff exits, as well as missing the playoffs entirely, the Dynamo found their way back to the MLS Cup in both 2011 and 2012, losing to the LA Galaxy on both occasions. By this point the league had expanded rapidly, with 18 teams in the league in 2011 and a 19th club (CF Montreal) in 2012. I point this out because I do not acknowledge either of Houston’s championship seasons, those were stolen from the fine people of San Jose!
I will, however, acknowledge their 2018 and 2023 US Open Cup victories, far enough removed from the relocation to give credit. Congrats, San J... I mean Houston.
Fast forward to the 2025 season and the roster that won the US Open Cup in 2023 is missing a number of top contributors – the most notable of them being Hector Herrera, and Coco Carasquilla. Both players are now playing in Liga MX and Houston also saw the departures of Steve Clark, Micael and former designated player Sebastian Ferreira this past offseason.
The Dynamo did replenish their rotation with some solid talent – Ezequiel Ponce came over last summer on a 9 million dollar transfer fee from AEK Athens and occupies one of Houston’s two DP slots in their 2/4/GAM build. Jack McGlynn joined from the Philadelphia Union in the first ever cash-for-player trade involving a homegrown player. They also bought Lawrence Ennali from Górnik Zabrze and just recently acquired both Ondrej Lingr from Slavia Prague to fill their other DP slot and Jonathan Bond from Watford to replace the injured Andrew Tarbell in goal over the last month.
Despite recording just one win through nine matches this season, these additions have bolstered the roster and make for a team that is most likely better than their record indicates. They’ve secured five points from their last three games, that includes a 1-0 victory over visiting LAFC and draws against LA Galaxy and Colorado Rapids.
One thing that has hampered the orange team has been bad injury luck, and their availability report is likely to be longer than Austin’s when released on Friday afternoon.
Ben Olsen’s team has been known to have a lot of the ball, finishing second in that category last season, north of 58% possession per game. Houston has struggled to maintain those massive possession figures in the early parts of this season, although they’re still ninth in MLS with 53% average possession. They also are known for playing physically, which has resulted in a league leading 16.2 fouls per match. As a team, they’re sitting on 22 yellow cards, one more than Austin FC’s total on the season. Expect a physical, chippy matchup in this heated rivalry contest. Austin will have to match their physicality without drawing the ire of the officials and be patient as Houston moves the ball around their back line.
The Dynamo would love nothing more than to begin to turn around their season against their hated rivals and add to their three-game unbeaten streak.
Austin FC Recent Form
There is a lot to be encouraged about after Austin’s recent home victory versus the LA Galaxy. While the team once again failed to light up the scoreboard, the opportunities to do so were there as Austin racked up 3.14 xG, their highest mark on the season. In fact, Austin FC has now “out xG’d” their opponents in eight of their nine matches in 2025. If you remove the shellacking that Vancouver handed Austin two weeks ago, which at this point is a clear outlier in their fixture list, Austin has a goal differential of +3. Of course, that Vancouver game did happen and the numbers are what they are. But encouraged and optimistic vibes should be present as Austin heads down to Shell Energy Stadium.
We saw a more aggressive offensive approach from Nico Estévez and his staff when the boys took the field last Saturday afternoon with a 4-3-3 formation in possession that provided ample space for Myrto Uzuni, Brandon Vazquez, and Jáder Obrian.
Obrian was a bit of a surprise when the lineup was revealed and it became even more shocking once it became clear that Austin had changed their offensive look that Obrian got the call to play a position that many fans have been begging for Osman Bukari to occupy.
Some fans, mainly me, were truly upset that Nico not only benched Bukari, but also made the formational switch that allowed Myrto Uzuni to float wider left. What we saw was increased space for our attacking players to operate, resulting in 16 total shots, seven of which were on target. The freedom and space that Uzuni had to work with seemed like a revelation for both him and BV, as the two were able to find themselves in more one-on-one situations with defenders. While they were unable to finish for the majority of the game, seeing those talented players in advantageous situations how we envisioned prior to the season was a beautiful sight. Here’s hoping we see that 4-3-3 formation in possession once again, but this time with Bukari getting the start on the right.
Nico did provide insight as to why Buka didn’t get the start, citing a lack of performance in the preceding weeks. While I view it as unjust, Osman handled it well and Jader filled in just fine. Bukari was also ready to go when he got the call off the bench and made an immediate impact when he was subbed on in the 61st minute of the game. He drew Austin’s first (confirmed) PK of the season and cemented the fact that he is largely unguardable in one-on-one situations with any defender in this league.
I am not sure what to expect from Nico in this heated rivalry match. While we can point to the improved look on the offensive side of the ball, we have seen the Austin coaching staff lean on a more conservative approach when playing on the road. In my eyes, Bukari has earned the right to start, our team looks the best with Myrto floating left, and the space available to our attackers in the 4-3-3 formation that we saw last weekend should continue to yield better chances on net.
As an Austin fan, you’re well aware of the fact that this team has been underperforming their xG numbers. When you look at the player personnel on this new-look roster, you’d be hard pressed not to believe that the upgraded attacking front of BV, Uzuni, and Bukari will eventually burst the dam on talent alone. But we’ve been saying that for weeks now, we have yet to see it come to fruition with any sort of continuity. It must be seen on the pitch as these are just words on a screen, but the ceiling for this club has yet to be realized.
Austin will be without the services of Brendan Hines-Ike, who was shown two yellows in quick succession and sent off in second half stoppage time against the Galaxy. BHI has been absorbing the captain duties with Ilie on the mend from a hamstring injury. If Ilie does not start, then who gets the band? My rationale is this: without BHI, Austin will need a field player to have the arm band and Ilie is that guy.
Another burning question I have is, who starts in the midfield? If Ilie is back in the starting XI, one of Dani Pereira, Besard Sabovic or Owen Wolff will likely take a seat. In my eyes (and through no fault of his own), I’d anticipate Dani Perreira heading to the bench if Sanchez starts in this matchup. This is going to be a physical, chippy contest in which Houston will try to throw Austin off their game with hard fouls and physical play. A level-headed Ilie can keep our boys in check and maintain a composure under fire that Dani hasn’t proven to provide as consistently as the veteran (yet). We talked about this at length in Episode 218, but were unable to come to a consensus on who we thought would get the call here. I will say this, I am fine with whatever midfield we line up with, but given the variables, I choose Ilie.
Injury Report
ATX:
Brandon Vazquez (Questionable - Illness)
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Brendan Hines-Ike (Out - Red Card Suspension)
HOU:
Junior Urso (Questionable - Lower Body)
Jimmy Maurer (Questionable - Lower Body)
Ethan Bartlow (Questionable - Lower Body)
Sebastian Kowalczyk (Questionable - Lower Body)
Erik Sviatchenko (Questionable - Lower Body)
Andrew Tarbell (Out - Knee)
Nelson Quinones (Out - Knee)
Duane Holmes (Out - Lower Leg)
Lawrence Ennali (Out - Knee)
Toyosi Olusanya (Out - Not Due To Injury)
Pablo Ortiz (Out - Not Due To Injury)
LA Galaxy Players to Watch
Amine Bassi - Remy from Ratatouille, who has tricked the MLS world into beliving his name is Amine Bassi, is a menace. He is a flopping, foul-drawing machine and will look to fall down in the box as much as possible in an effort to draw PKs for the Dynamo, something he is quite good at doing. With three goal contributions on the season, he is tied for tops on the team with Ponce and McGlynn. While my disparaging comments are fun and based in truth, Bassi is crafty. He’s shifty and finds his way into tight spots to get shots off. The more time he spends alongside new additions McGlynn and Lingr, the more dangerous this attack will become.
Jack McGlynn - The former Philadelphia Union homegrown player is a fantastic addition. He is great in possession, has deft touch around the net, and can uncork shots from distance with power. McGlynn will be in an attacking midfield position and will look to feed Ponce and Bassi to generate chances for Houston. If they want a physical game, then this is a player I would be targeting as an Austin defender. Make it hard on him, rough him up a bit when you can and take him off the ball as much as possible to disrupt Houston’s attack.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Keep Your Cool - As mentioned above, Houston is a physical team that fouls a lot. They should be even more aggressive and physical in this matchup with the added rivalry element. Austin is the more talented team and to try to level the playing field, I expect Houston to foul early and often, forcing the officials to take control of the game or let Houston dictate the mood. It’s imperative for our favorite team to keep cool and play their game. Austin is the better side and Houston will try to bait them into disciplinary mistakes, especially if Austin takes a lead.
Board Man Gets Paid - A wonderful quote from Kawhi Leonard is applicable here. While the reference is not a one-to-one comparison from the court to the pitch, our trio of attackers should have their way with the Dynamo backline. They got paid because they are elite goal scorers, so go score some goals, baby! The Dynamo simply cannot match the talent that Uzuni, BV, and Bukari provide up front, especially with Micael no longer on this Houston roster. Go get paid (in goals) with aggressive play. We should hope to see Austin in a 4-3-3 look in possession, which will space the Houston backline out and provide single coverage situations. If you choose to double one of the wingers, then the others should feast. If they choose to double both, then the Dynamo offense will suffer. Pick your poison!
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 2-0 Austin FC
