Week 10 MLS Picks
We steadied the ship in Week 9 and enter the second quarter of the MLS regular season with our heads above water.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 10 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week, we were two Bruno Damiani shots short of glory, but we’re still in a great spot on the season and feeling confident. Let’s head to the board!
We’ll get things started with one of the early afternoon matches on Saturday, as Sporting KC travels to FC Cincinnati. SKC is unsurprisingly a significant underdog here, so we’re going to attack the Cincinnati team total at home. John Pulskamp stinks. Whenever we get a chance to bet against him it feels strong. This match is no different and the books know it. FC Cincinnati are -180 to score over 1.5 goals in this match and are -170 to win. Pulskamp has given up two or more goals in seven of SKC’s nine games this season and has averaged over two goals conceded per 90 minutes across the last two seasons. We’ll gladly slot in this prop even at the 0.88x multiplier and look to make it up later on.
Next we’re going back to Atlanta’s Miguel Almiron for the second straight week. Here’s what we wrote last week before Almiron came through for us with four shot attempts in his 90 minutes against Philadelphia.
Miguel Almiron’s shot attempts line is set at 1.5 and similar to Lozano, this number is just too low, even with Atlanta as road underdogs. Almiron is averaging 2.6 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season in his return to MLS and over his 5,770 career minutes with Atlanta he averages 3.59 per 90. Of course, he spent the last seven years in the Premier League, but even at the top of the sport, Almiron averaged 1.84 shot attempts per 90 with Newcastle from 2018-2025 across 12,510 minutes. On his career he’s at 2.34 over 20,486 minutes and has been over this number in three straight.
His shot attempts prop is back at 1.5 this weekend on the road against Orlando City SC and with no Emmanuel Latte Lath for the Five Stripes on Saturday, Almiron could take on an even larger role offensively.
Closing out the Week 10 entry with another shots prop on the road. Chicho Arango has been doing it all for the Earthquakes over the first quarter of the season and while that hasn’t translated to San Jose finding themselves at the top of the table, their offense has been very dangerous. While the Quakes are the biggest underdogs on the Week 10 slate, this line is incredibly advantageous considering the 1.19x multiplier. Arango has averaged 4.11 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season with San Jose and over his 7,569 MLS minutes with LAFC, Real Salt Lake and the Quakes has averaged 4.07 shot attempts per 90. He’s over this number in seven of nine games this season and while the matchup can certainly be considered nervy, the multiplier makes it too good to pass up.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.28x your entry fee if successful.
This month we’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen O 1.5 goals against (1.27x)
Diego Luna O 1.5 shots attempted (1.1x)
Aaron Herrera O 0.5 shots attempted (1.1x)
Phillip Zinckernagel O 1.5 shots attempted
Hirving Lozano O 3.5 shots attempted (1.19x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +10.43 U
Week 10 Picks
FC Cincinnati To Win + CIN/SKC O 1.5
-110
You probably should have seen this coming after the Pulskamp pick above! We’re backing Cincy to take care of business against lowly Sporting KC at home today. Cincinnati is one point of the Supporter’s Shield lead even though they haven’t been fully healthy all season. They’re as close to that as they’ve been today, still missing Yuya Kubo but expecting the full return of Matt Miazga. Sporting KC on the other hand has given up multiple goals in seven of their nine games and have seen a total of two or more goals in eight of their nine matches, with the lone outlier the 1-0 loss to Austin FC on opening night. The home team to win and over 1.5 on the total gets us near even money.
Austin FC
ML +240
Fuck Houston.
MIN/VAN U 2.5
-110
The Whitecaps just keep rolling! After Vancouver dusted Inter Miami 2-0 in their home leg of the CONCACAF Champions Cup semi-final, we expect them to rotate fairly heavily against Minnesota United on Sunday with the away leg scheduled for the coming midweek. They’ve been extremely fun to watch this season (save the 5-1 thrashing they gave our favorite team a few weeks back), but today’s road tilt may not be a goal fest. Both Minnesota and Vancouver are in the top four of expected goals against and six of the Loons nine games have gone under this number in 2025.
Portland TimberS
Win Or Draw -110
LA Galaxy will record their first win at some point and they’re actually near even money to do so at home on Sunday Night Soccer this weekend when they host the Timbers. But we can get Portland double chance at essentially the same number and that feels a lot better, even away from Providence Park. The Timbers have proven to be able to get a result in multiple different game states this season and are riding a six-match unbeaten streak into Carson. With the return of Jonathan Rodriguez, they’ll have even more talented offensive options to attack this dismal Galaxy defense.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 10 shouts.
Luca Orellano +195
Chicho +250
Hirving Lozano +180
Jonathan Bamba +425
Myrto Uzuni +320
Osman Bukari +475
Djordje Mihailovic +265
Denis Bouanga +155
Jonathan Rodriguez +235
To Score 2+ goals
Myrto Uzuni +2500 (0.5)
Denis Bouanga +900 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: +3.73 U
Season: +7.88 U
