Match Preview - Minnesota United
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 5W-0D-4L against Minnesota United.
Back in the 2021 expansion season, Austin’s third ever competitive match was a road trip up to Minneapolis that ended up as the club’s second win on the back of a Diego Fagundez goal in the 17th minute.
Since then it’s been an even head-to-head matchup, with each team taking four wins of the eight meetings, though ATX has won three of the last four.
Minnesota United Recent Form
Minnesota United FC (MNUFC) began MLS play in the 2017 season as the league’s 23rd club. But the franchise was founded in 2010 and initially named NSC Minnesota (after the National Sports Center in Blaine, MN, where the team played their home matches), competing in the now-defunct NASL. The team replaced the void left the year prior by the Minnesota Thunder, a USL-1 side whose mascot was Thor. The team didn’t fold and instead underwent a full re-organization after ceasing operations in 2009 under the weight of heavy debt and unpaid bills that included player wages.
After two seasons, the club rebranded with a new logo and a new name, dropping the “NSC” portion of the title and becoming the Minnesota Stars. They played three NASL seasons before MLS Commissioner Don Garber announced in 2015 that the club would be added to the blossoming first division league. With the move came the establishment of the Minnesota United FC name and crest, which features a Loon (the state bird of Minnesota) with eleven feathers.
MNUFC’s first MLS season was a rough one, conceding a record 18 times across their first four matches. They were led in goals that season by Christian Ramirez with 14, who was at Q2 two weeks ago starting at striker for the LA Galaxy. While the Loons have mostly avoided being a bottom of the table team across their first eight seasons, they’ve also failed to finish near the top. MNUFC has finished between fourth and sixth of the Western Conference and seventh and eleventh in the Supporter’s Shield standings in five of the last six seasons.
Last season was one of transition for the Loons. They hired former Manchester United assistant Eric Ramsay as their new head coach to replace Adrian Heath. They also said goodbye to the club’s talisman DP, Emanuel Reynoso, who had multiple periods away from the team dealing with various legal troubles over his final 18 months with Minnesota.
Somewhat surprisingly, they hit the ground running without Reynoso and tied their club record with 15 wins. That was only good enough for sixth in a stacked Western Conference last year, but it felt like a very strong foundation had been laid for the Ramsay era.
Coming into this season, expectations were high for MNUFC. They had added DP striker Kelvin Yeboah from Genoa of Italy’s Serie A in the summer transfer window a few months back and he had exploded for eight goal contributions in his first nine appearances. The majority of MLS “experts” had them as a top five club in the West in the preseason and through the first ten matches they’re meeting said expectations, sitting tied with Austin FC on points with 16, but in 4th place due to ATX currently holding the tiebreaker.
From what I can tell, their fanbase is giving off similar vibes to us at the moment. After dropping their opening match against LAFC, the Loons reeled off 14 points across their next six outings. They’ve racked up an identical five clean sheets to Austin and are also entering this match on a trio of questionable results. While Austin sandwiched their 1-0 home win against the winless LA Galaxy with two thorough road losses at the hands of Vancouver Whitecaps and Houston Dynamo, Minnesota has earned two points from their last three after scoreless draws against Toronto FC on the road and FC Dallas at home were followed up by a 3-1 home defeat against the white-hot Whitecaps last Saturday.
Despite the similarities, the Loons have been a much more productive offensive team this season. They’ve recorded 12 goals in their 10 matches, which isn’t an impressive figure on it’s face, but it’s nearly double the output of the Verde and Black so far this season. Those 12 goals are also a significant under performance on the 16.5 expected goals (xG) they’ve accumulated.
Nine of those 12 goals have come from their forward pairing (another similarity!… playing a pair of forwards, not the goals scored *wipes tear*) of Kelvin Yeboah and Tani Oluwaseyi. The former exited the loss against Vancouver early in the second half after tweaking his ankle in the first 45. It remains to be seen if he’ll be limited at all this Saturday at Q2 Stadium, I’d bet that he’ll end up fine since he continued to play through the injury for a substantial amount of time. No matter if it’s one or both of these forwards in the starting unit for the Loons on Saturday, it’s going to be a big challenge for the ATX back line.
Under Ramsay’s staff, MNUFC want to play a counter attacking style. They employ attacking minded wingbacks in Joseph Rosales and Bongokuhle Hlongwane who flank their three stout centerbacks (including North End foe Michael Boxall) in defense before opportunistically releasing up the field on the counter. With those guys flying up and down the sidelines, Austin FC will have their hands full trying to contain the Loons counter attacks, with speed on the wings and an elite size/strength forward combination up top.
The league is currently investigating a dust-up between Rosales and Vancouver’s Emanuel Sabbi from last Saturday’s match in which Rosales was accused of violating the league’s anti-discrimination policy. His status could be in question for this weekend’s match.
As a final personnel note, Robert Taylor was not the only Inter Miami player shed for salary cap purposes ahead of last week’s deadline. They also dealt wingback Julian Gressel to Minnesota. Gressel is a highly decorated MLS veteran, named the 2017 Rookie of the Year and winning both the 2018 MLS Cup and the 2019 US Open Cup with Atlanta United. He also was a member of the Columbus Crew’s 2023 MLS Cup winning side. It’s unlikely that Gressel will play a sizeable role this Saturday especially since he, unlike Taylor, hasn’t appeared in a game this season. But crazier things have happened.
Austin FC Recent Form
It never feels great the week after dropping a game to your in-state rivals, but Austin FC doesn’t have time to dwell on the stinker they put out there in H-Town last week. The month of May is here and with it comes seven league matches and at least one US Open Cup fixture with the potential for a second if the team advances. As you may have heard us discuss on Episode 219, Saturday’s game against Minnesota United is the beginning of the most daunting part of the 2025 schedule, with games against a number of the top MLS sides fast approaching.
ATX currently sits third in the Western Conference through the first ten matches of the season, but that position is the definition of precarious with just three points separating our favorite team from ninth place Seattle Sounders. By the time May wraps up with the away day at San Diego FC on the 31st, the MLS season will officially be at the halfway point in terms of games played. We’re going to learn a lot about the 2025 version of Austin FC over this blitz of a month.
We were also given the latest on the injury front from head coach Nico Estévez on Thursday morning, which didn’t exactly make me light up with optimism. Dani Pereira, who left the match against Houston in the first half due to injury, is expected to miss four to eight weeks with a hip flexor problem. Mikkel Desler, who was previously expected to be available in a reserve role against Minnesota this weekend, will be a no-go on Saturday. According to Estévez, Desler will be in full training with the team next week and in “mid-May to the end of May he could be eligible for us.” This is an extension of the initial eight week timeline to return set by Estévez.
But it’s not all doom and gloom! Coach confirmed that new acquisition, Robert Taylor, is ready to go this weekend and when asked if he’d be ready for “10 to 15 minutes” he responded “or more.” We’ve also gotten photos of Brandon Vázquez, who was absent for the Houston match due to illness, in full training with the team this week. He’s expected to be ready to play on Saturday against Minnesota.
With Pereira sidelined for the forseeable future, die-hard Austin fans are wondering just how Estévez will tinker his midfield or even the team’s tactics as a whole. Will he start with the familiar faces of Owen Wolff, Ilie Sanchez and Besard Sabovic and maintain the 4-3-3 look in possession we have seen over the last two matches? Or will he opt to shake things up by starting the newcomer Taylor or the less expereienced Nicolas Dubersarsky, potentially going back to the more conservative 4-4-2 approach we’ve seen more often than not throughout 2025? We gave our best guesses on Episode 220 in the midweek, but keep in mind that coach has surprised us more than once already with his lineup decisions.
Brendan Hines-Ike, who has been the best centerback for the club so far this season, will also return from his red card suspension. The defense has been stout at home through five matches, conceding just twice in 450 minutes. But as we all know, the offense has sputtered no matter the venue.
Here’s a stat for you. Austin FC has generated 13.0 xG through their ten matches, which is good for 21st in MLS. The team directly below them in the xG table, the Portland Timbers, is directly above ATX in second place in the Western Conference on 12.9 xG. Seems to make sense, if Austin can sit near the top of the conference while underperforming xG by 46.2%, of course another team can. Except Portland aren’t underperforming their xG, in fact, they’ve scored 20 goals! That’s MLS for ya I guess.
All of that to say this. Austin FC’s offense has underperformed in nearly every aspect, from their G-xG to the preseason expectations of fans and pundits. Through 29.4% of the MLS season this is not a good offensive team. But there’s a lot of games left to play and plenty of opportunities this month to quickly reverse the concerning lack of balls hitting the back of the opposing net. There is still too much talent on the roster for me to think this team isn’t going to figure things out and start scoring at a higher rate, at least one that comes closer to their xG indicators.
It’s one thing for a biased die-hard fan to still believe this to be true. But for the masses to jump on board, Austin FC must first do it on the pitch. Scoring multiple goals in this match would be just the second time in 2025 that ATX would accomplish that feat. I’m not overly confident that happens this weekend, but we’d all welcome the long awaited offensive explosion against a stingy Loons defense.
Injury Report
Note: This is an estimate until the league releases official injury reports on Friday afternoon.
ATX:
Brandon Vazquez (Probable - Illness)
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Dani Pereira (Out - Quad)
MIN:
Julian Gressel (Probable - Not Injury Related)
Kelvin Yeboah (Questionable - Ankle)
Joseph Rosales (Questionable - Not Injury Related)
Hassani Dotson (Out - Knee)
Kipp Keller (Out - Leg)
Owen Gene (Out - Ankle)
Minnesota United Players to Watch
Kelvin Yeboah - The 24-year-old Ghanaian striker has made a huge impact in his short time with MNUFC after arriving in the summer transfer window last season. He’s recorded 13 goal contributions in his first 19 appearances in MLS and peppers opposing goalkeepers on a consistent basis. Yeboah is averaging 4.09 shots per 90 minutes this season, which is sixth most in MLS among players who have played 450 minutes or more this season, behind only Lionel Messi, Christian Benteke, Hirving Lozano, Denis Bouanga and Gabriel Pec.
Tani Oluwaseyi - Born just nine days apart, Yeboah’s forward partner has been more successful with the counting stats through the first ten matches, leading the Loons in goals with five. Oluwaseyi, who is a regular for the Canadian national team, is also second on the team in assists with two. He broke out last year with 14 goal contributions in just 1,077 minutes after being a Superdraft pick prior to the 2023 season.
Bongokuhle Hlongwane - Affectionately referred to as “Bongy”, the natural winger moved into a wingback role in the latter parts of the 2024 season and has continued to man that position on the right side of Minnesota’s shape this year. Like the two players we just discussed, Hlongwane is also 24-years-old and provides an extra level of top end speed to the Loons attack. He had a career year in 2024, recording 15 goal contributions in 1,929 minutes.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Finishing - Just one key for this weekend’s match. Austin FC is the largest xG underperformer in the Western Conference after two-plus months of play and only behind CF Montreal (who are -6.4 goals behind their xG total) leaguewide. If this team can’t start putting away their chances at a higher rate, we’re going to see a significant drop in ATX’s table position and quickly. For the love of all that is Verde, FINISH!
Predictions
ZG - 1-1 Draw
E - 1-0 Austin FC
