Week 11 MLS Picks
After our Week 7 and 8 downturn we are fully back on track overall. If you’ve tailed The North End this year you’re up almost 30 units through the first 10 weeks of the MLS season across all of the picks. While it’s been a great start, there’s a long way to go. Eyes forward!
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 11 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week, things were looking dicey at halftime for all three of the picks in the entry, but we pulled it out once all was said and done. Let’s head to the board!
A quick note, it appears like we’ve got an unfortunate development with the Underdog Fantasy offerings for soccer, at least for this weekend. They’ve nerfed the options we have to choose from, offering no “lower” options for goals, shots attempted or shots on target. The “higher” props they do have listed are more often than not offered for a lower than 1x multiplier. This is by far the toughest week to find options we feel confident in so far this season. The change isn’t limited to MLS options, with the other European games offered also not having any “lower” options for shots, though some are present for shots on target. We’ve made our way through the entire board and have narrowed it down to what we think is an advantageous play, but we’re also going to be contacting their support to voice our displeasure with the limited options given. Hopefully enough of the userbase interested in the “FIFA” tab of the site will also complain and we can return to business as usual next week.
We’ll begin in the first match of Week 11 and attack the Nashville SC defense with Joe Willis higher than 1.5 goals allowed. Nashville are still without Walker Zimmerman due to concussion symptoms and since he went down against Charlotte FC in Week 7, Nashville have given up more than two goals per 90 minutes. They have also gone over this number in four of the last five games. Even though Atlanta have yet to find their consistency in 2025, the Five Stripes are historically a very strong home side, at least when it comes to netting multiple goals. From 2022-2024, a 51 game sample, Atlanta United has scored two or more goals in 64.7% of their home matches. They’re also -130 to go over 1.5 goals scored at the books today, so we’ll back their expensive attack to find their goal scoring form on Saturday afternoon.
Then we’ll move into the 7:30 window and pick on the Chicago Fire defense that just gave up a touchdown to Nashville last week. While they’re middle of the pack in terms of opponent shots allowed on the season, Orlando’s Marco Pašalić has a shot attempts line that is one of the few shots props on the board that we feel comfortable with this week at a 1.02x multiplier. The 24-year-old Croatian DP has been very productive so far this season for his new club, with seven goal contributions in his first ten MLS games. But he’s also averaging 3.28 shot attempts per 90 minutes after posting 3.3 shot atttempts per 90 over his last two seasons (3,412 minutes) with HNL in Croatia.
Closing out the Week 11 entry with one of our rivals in Anderson Julio from FC Dallas, who are on the road taking on San Diego FC tonight. We haven’t gone to shot on target lines very frequently this year, but at a base 1x multiplier this is a strong option on this slate. Julio came over from RSL in the offseason and is averaging 0.83 shots on target per 90 minutes with his new club in 2025. But his career MLS rate of 1.34 shots on target per 90 over a 4,643 minute sample is too strong to ignore. SDFC have conceded the ninth most shots on target to opponents in 2025 and with the limited options on the board, Julio’s SOT stands out.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.12x your entry fee if successful.
This month we’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Dayne St. Clair higher 1.5 goals allowed (1.18x)
Miguel Almiron higher 2.5 shots attempted
Hirving Lozano higher 3.5 shots attempted
Matt Freese higher 1.5 goals allowed (1.27x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): +5.28 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +15.71 U
Week 11 Picks
New England Revolution - DNB
+110
Neither the Revs nor Toronto FC have been particularly exciting sides to watch this season as both teams sit below the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. But New England has shown major signs of life lately, winning four of their last five games. Their offensive output is, somehow, more stagnant than Austin FC’s has been, but this team is getting healthy. They’ve welcomed back Leo Campana and Tomas Chancalay from injury over the last few weeks and as those two work their way to full fitness, things should start to open up a bit on the scoreboard. Former league MVP Carles Gil is reminding us why he won the award a few years back and we like hedging our love for the Revs this week with the draw-no-bet option for near even money.
Austin FC
ML +145
It’s rare that we’ll pass up the chance to put a unit down on our favorite team to win at home at plus money. Both Mikkel Desler and Dani Pereira are out for ATX, but on the Minnesota side of this game they’re expected to be without DP striker Kelvin Yeboah. If this number wasn’t so high, we’d likely pass on it. But this is just too good to ignore in the friendly confines of Q2 Stadium.
Portland timbers - DNB
+140
Here’s a stat for you. Austin FC has accumulated 13.0 xG on Opta’s model. Portland has totaled 12.9. Austin FC has scored 7 goals, while Portland has netted 20. Despite the Timbers massively over performing and a let down coming at some point, it doesn’t feel like a matchup against San Jose is the place to jump off. We’re going to another draw-no-bet option on the road and backing Portland for the second consecutive week.
FC Cincinnati
ML +200
We’ll talk a lot more about Cincy in The North End this coming week as our favorite team will be on the road in their house next weekend. This Sunday though, FC Cincinnati is on the road at NYCFC. This match will be played at Citi Field instead of Yankee Stadium due to the MLB schedule. Despite the Vancouver Whitecaps leading the Supporter’s Shield race and clearly being the hottest team in CONCACAF after advancing to the CCC Final, Cincy is the most in-form team in MLS play at the moment, winning each of their last five games. We’re backing the Eastern Conference leaders to keep the streak alive in the Mets house on Sunday afternoon.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 11 shouts.
Emmanuel Latte Lath +130
Leo Campana +265
Diego Rossi +165
Myrto Uzuni +260
Hirving Lozano +185
Willy Agada +300
Denis Bouanga +155
Kevin Denkey +200
Gabriel Pec +245
To Score 2+ goals
Myrto Uzuni +1800 (0.5)
To Score Or Assist
Emil Forsberg +150
Results
Last Week: +4.82 U
Season: +12.7 U
