Match Preview - El Paso Locomotive
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:30pm CT
Watch: CBS Sports/Paramount +
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
This will be the first competitive match between Austin FC and El Paso Locomotive.
The two clubs met in February of the 2023 preseason at St. David’s Performance Center (RIP Verde Hill) where they played the common extended scrimmage format of two 45-minutes halves and an additional 30-minute period. Austin won that friendly 5-0 with goals from Sebastián Driussi, Owen Wolff, David Rodriguez, Ethan Finlay and Maxi Urruti.
El Paso Locomotive Recent Form
El Paso Locomotive was founded in 2018 and began USL Championship play the following year. The crest features the front of a locomotive with 11 stripes, along with an El Paso city icon “The Star on the Mountain” at the top of the crest that is shaped in the silhouette of the Franklin Mountains where the star is located.
The club’s biggest rivals are USL foe New Mexico United and Liga MX’s FC Juárez. The Locomotive are one of the many USL Championship sides to play their home matches at a baseball stadium, with El Paso sharing Southwest University Park with the Chihuahuas of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.
In El Paso’s expansion season in 2019, they won 13 of their 34 games and finished on 50 points, qualifying for the USL playoffs. The club advanced to the Western Conference Final where they fell 2-1 to Real Monarchs. They also made the Western Conference Final in 2020 during the COVID shortened season. They exploded for 64 points in the 2021 season but were upset in the first round of the playoffs by Oakland Roots. Since then, the club has missed the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and were bounced in the first round again when they did qualify in 2023.
Through the first third of the 2025 USL Championship regular season, El Paso have found moderate success behind an explosive offense. While they’re sitting in fourth place out of 12 teams in the Western Conference on 12 points through eight matches, they have scored 15 goals, which is tied for the most in the USL with Charleston Battery.
El Paso are coached by former Colombian international defender Wilmer Cabrera, who has multiple USL and MLS stops on his coaching resume including Houston Dynamo, Montreal Impact and Chivas USA.
Contrary to the Verde vibes after Saturday’s home loss, El Paso will be coming into Q2 Stadium feeling great about themselves. They wholloped their rivals New Mexico United 3-0 on Saturday night at home behind a hat trick by the coach’s kid, Wilmer Cabrera Jr (who goes by “Andy”). The trio of goals doubled the forward’s total on the season, who was a third round pick by the Chicago Fire in the 2023 MLS Superdraft after a four year collegiate career at Butler.
Despite the top four position in the USL Western Conference table, I’m of the opinion that the “Locos” current standing is fool’s gold. The victory over New Mexico was their first win this year against a team above 10th in their respective conferences, with the first two coming against Hartford Athletic (last place in the East) and Lexington SC (10th in the West).
El Paso is a team that won just eight of their 34 matches last year, finishing last in the Western Conference and their 32 points was second worst in the league. Despite their flurry of goals to begin the 2025 season, they’ve also conceded 13, which is fourth most of the USL’s 24 teams. This profiles as a team that Austin FC should not just beat, but dominate.
Austin FC Recent Form
If there’s an Austin FC fan that’s feeling good after Saturday’s result, I have yet to meet them. The 3-0 home loss to Minnesota United was the largest margin of defeat at Q2 Stadium in Austin FC’s history. We had our bitch-session on Sunday’s Episode 221, so I’ll spare you a re-run of my complaints.
While this match should be a chance to rotate the lineup heavily, giving younger players or veteran back ups like goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland a chance to play extended minutes, the team has played their way into a situation that doesn’t really allow them to approach this match as such. There’s certainly a chance that I’m reading this wrong and we see a ton of changes to the starting XI on Wednesday, but this match has now turned into a “get-right” spot for ATX. All three of Austin’s designated players need a confidence boost and after the last month, you can lump in the rest of the team too.
Many fans voiced displeasure with comments made by head coach Nico Estévez in the postgame press conference on Saturday, when he pointed to expected goal (xG) totals against Minnesota as evidence that Austin “completely dominated” in the loss. If you’re reading this article you know that we are fans of using stats as a big factor in the way we analyze the team in The North End, but how Nico used xG in that moment was pretty disingenous. Should Austin have scored? Yes. Did they completely dominate? Hell no.
That said, I do think there’s a way to use current xG totals to soothe the concerns you may be feeling about our favorite team, even if it’s just a little bit. Through 11 league matches, Austin FC is by far the most underperforming team by xG, a stat that gets more informative and trustworthy as the sample size grows. By goals minus expected goals (G-xG), here are the most “underperforming” MLS teams in 2025.
Austin FC: -7.2
CF Montreal: -6.7
St. Louis City SC: -4.8
Real Salt Lake: -3.1
LA Galaxy: -3.0
You read that right, with seven total goals in 2025 Austin FC has scored fewer than 50% of their expected goals this season. Again, xG is just a piece of the analytical puzzle, and none of the stats any outlet can offer us can replace actually watching the games themselves. This team is clearly low on both confidence and cohesion. But I’m inhaling the hopium that our G-xG will normalize over the remaining two-thirds of the MLS regular season.
The US Open Cup is also likely Austin’s best chance at non-Copa Tejas hardware in 2025. Entering the tournament in the Round of 32 means that ATX is just five victories away from glory in the nation’s longest running soccer competition. As much as I would love to enter this match ready to see the team rotate as MLS sides typically do in these external competitions against lower division sides, the plan must change. Playing the strongest lineup possible in an attempt to decimate a clearly inferior opponent to start building some confidence among the group is the only thing I want to see when the lineup drops on Wednesday evening.
Injury Report
ATX:
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Dani Pereira (Out - Hip Flexor)
ELP:
Bryan Romero (Out - Knee)
El Paso Locomotive Players to Watch
Amando Moreno - The 29-year-old forward is probably the biggest threat to the Verde and Black on this El Paso roster. Moreno’s professional career has spanned more than a decade with multiple MLS stops including New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire, along with a stop in Liga MX with Club Tijuana. But he’s also had an interesting road over the last four years, playing three with New Mexico United (scoring 24 goals in 79 appearances) before crossing the state and rivalry line to the Locos prior to last season. Moreno has scored nine goals in his 36 appearances with El Paso, wearing the #10 kit.
Beto Avila - An ATX native and former member of the USL’s Austin Bold, Avila also had an MLS stink (a typo I’m leaving instead of correcting immediately to “stint,” because orange team) with Houston. After the Dynamo loaned Avila to Charleston Battery in 2023, he left the club to join Sporting KC II in 2024 before landing in El Paso this season. He’s played well so far, recording two goals and three assists across eight appearances in all competitions while wearing the #14 kit for the Locos.
Frank Daroma - A familiar name from Austin FC II’s MLS Next Pro slate the last few seasons, Daroma joined El Paso this season after two years with Tacoma Defiance. He’s been a constant presence in the Locos midfield this season, starting all seven of his appearances so far, recording two assists. Daroma wears the #8 kit for El Paso.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Stay Loose - Austin’s players are clearly feeling the pressure to perform, especially those new additions that came with expensive transfer fees. The longer this match goes without a breakthrough for the home team, the more tension will build throughout Q2 Stadium. Staying loose and playing through any potential early missed chances with positivity and togetherness is easier said than done, but it should also be expected from a team that is so clearly the more talented side at every position.
Survive and Advance - Look, we’ve talked for nearly three months now about what this team could be. To this point, they haven’t come close to fulfilling even the most modest of expectations for this roster, at least in the attacking phase. If this match does turn into a struggle for the Verde and Black, so be it. This is a knockout tournament, meaning that there will be an additional 30-minute period of play if the match is level after 90 minutes, then a potential penalty shootout if the extra half hour isn’t enough to separate the two teams. Unlike most matches where we claim the opposite on the pod, I do care how they get it done to bring us home the win on Wednesday. But for the love of all that is Verde, do not lose this match.
Predictions
ZG - 3-0 Austin FC
E - 3-0 Austin FC
