Match Preview - FC Cincinnati
Game Info
Kickoff: 6:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: TQL Stadium - Cincinnati, OH
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 1W-0D-0L against FC Cincinnati.
The two clubs met in the opener of the 2022 season, a record setting performance for Austin FC that ended as a 5-0 victory. It remains both the largest margin of victory for the Verde and Black and the most goals they’ve ever scored in a competitive match. The highlights of that match are worth watching for any Austin fan, whether you need a pick-me-up or just want to re-live the offensive peak of the club.
FC Cincinnati Recent Form
Founded in August of 2015, FC Cincinnati originally competed in the USL for three seasons before being awarded with a spot in MLS in May of 2018.
But from the beginning of the club, the city of Cincinnati was ecstatic to have a soccer franchise and the fans sure it was known, as the Orange and Blue broke the USL attendance record not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times in a 17-month span that stretched from 2016 thru 2017. The team also broke the record for highest attendance for a soccer match in the entire state of Ohio when they played a friendly against Crystal Palace in 2016 (suck it, Columbus Crew). It’s safe to say that Cincy has some of the best fans in the league and that TQL Stadium is one of the best home environments in MLS.
There’s a lot to cheer for in Cincy right now, as “The Knifey Lions” sit in third place in the Eastern Conference and fourth place in Supporters Shield standings with 22 points accumulated through their first 11 matches. After advancing to the Round of 16 in CONCACAF Champions Cup (CCC), Cincinnati was knocked out by a talented Tigres side by an aggregate scoreline of 4-2.
Since their elimination in CCC play, Cincy has been one of the most consistent teams in the league, accumulating 16 points from an eight match stretch that included wins over Nashville SC, New England Revolution, DC United, Chicago Fire, and Sporting KC.
You may have noticed “The Knifey Lions” nickname above. FC Cincinnati are also sometimes referred to as “The Gary’s.” Both are derived from the team’s mascot, “Gary the Knifey Lion,” who was introduced when the team made the jump to MLS and was created from the lion depicted in the team’s crest.
As one redditor put it six years ago when the mascot was introduced, “Gary has Germanic origin, referring to something holding a ‘gar’ (spear). Gary symbolizes our Bavarian heritage and will cut your ass. All hail Gary.” There is also a chant written at the top of that thread that reads…
Gary is love,
Gary is life,
Gary will cut you,
With Gary’s sharp-ass knife!
It’s unknown to us if Cincy fans have actually chanted this or not at any point, but we hope they do and regardless of that we love this piece of opponent lore.
The Gary’s are paced by DP stars Evander Ferreira and Kevin Denkey – two lethal talents who both have six goals to their name in just 11 games. Wow! Two DPs who can put the ball behind the keeper – what does that feel like? Hey, I made it a few paragraphs before letting my current saltiness at our favorite team bleed into the opponent preview. Plenty more of that to come!
Simply put, Evander is one of the best players in this league and he hasn’t slowed down one bit since statisically dominating the Western Conference during his time in Portland. Evander was acquired this offseason from Portland on a $12 million dollar transfer fee that includes $150,000 in performance-based incentives. The Brazilian midfielder is as good as they come in this league and was a 2024 MVP finalist and named to the MLS Best XI team last season. He led the league with 19 assists and also added 15 goals for good measure, trailing only Lionel Messi in goal contributions in 2024.
Evander has a special knack of making something out of nothing and Austin fans would be wise to remember his absolutely breathtaking free kick he had at Q2 stadium last year (a goal that ZG has labeled the best he has ever seen at the Q). From nearly 30 yards, he turned a free kick that had 0.04 xG into a spectacular goal. To further illustrate the talent, Evander currently sits on six goals on 1.6 xG in 2025, which clocks him at a +4.4 goals minus xG, a stat that he leads the league in and it’s not particularly close. This metric is usually reserved for the best players in the league as it illustrates that they can score from anywhere, no matter the odds.
But let’s not gloss over FC Cincinnati’s other DP in Denkey, who was purchased for $16.2 million from Cercle Brugge in the Jupiler Pro League. At the time of the transfer, Denkey was the most expensive inbound transfer in MLS history, only to be topped just weeks later by the Atlanta spending north of $20 million on Emmanuel Latte Lath. The 24-year old striker netted 66 goals in 152 appearances with Cercle Brugge and is off to a very hot start with his new club, nabbing the aforementioned six goals to start out this season. One of his goals from a few weeks back is absolutely worth a watch, as it may end up being the goal of the year.
If you’ve been doing the math thus far, then you’ll see that with 12 combined goals from Evander and Denkey, only three other players have scored for FC CIncy to bring their goal total to 15 on the season. It is a TALL task to stop both of them, but if you can contain them and make other players beat you, then you have to feel decent about your chances of getting points on the road in a tough atmosphere.
FC Cincinnati likes to high press. They’ll be up in our players space and trying to create opportunities with turnovers. When they do turn their opponents over, they’re very direct in their offensive actions. Their talented players are allowed to be creative and individualistic in the attack – it’s a pretty fun brand of soccer to watch, as long as they aren’t doing it to your favorite team.
Austin FC Recent Form
Speaking of our favorite team, the last few weeks haven’t been great and that may be putting it nicely. Despite securing a win on Wednesday and advancing to the Round of 16 in the US Open Cup, Austin has not looked like a cohesive, competent team over the last five fixtures.
Since the 5-1 disaster in Vancouver, Austin has 2W-0D-3L, with the two victories coming against the winless LA Galaxy and second division El Paso Locomotive. Over their last five league games including the scoreless home draw against Portland back on April 5, Austin FC has been outscored 10-2 in league play, including the blowout losses to the Whitecaps (the largest margin of defeat in club history) and Loons (the largest home margin of defeat in club history).
For a team whose most expensive player said he was “here to break records,” Austin FC has been breaking all the wrong ones. But it doesn’t stop there. At their current pace, Austin would only score 22 goals on the season, which is just one more goal than the all-time low set by DC United in 2010 when they scored 21 goals. But, that was also just a 30-game season. DC also has the record for least goals in a 34-game season with 22, set in 2013. Either way, it’s a historically bad offense right now, and frankly, it really does not make sense to me. This is the most talented roster we have ever had in Austin, and the opportunities are presenting themselves, with many of those opportunities coming at the feet of elite-level goal scoring threats. We can talk about tactics or potential midfield problems all day, but anyone watching these games week in and week out knows that finishing the chances that have been created has been a major issue.
Here in The North End, we have talked about the month of May ad nauseum. We knew this was going to be a brutal stretch for the Verde and Black, and the team did themselves no favors by limping into May with their uninspiring defeat at the hands of the Orange Team to close out April.
It needs to get figured out, and sooner rather than later, as the remaining May schedule is about as unforgiving as we have ever seen. After the team returns from Cincinnati on Saturday, Austin will host Atlanta United on Wednesday, host the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday, host the Orange team for the US Open Cup the following Wednesday, travel to Minnesota the following Saturday and host RSL that next Wednesday before rounding out the month with the first ever visit to San Diego FC on Saturday the 31st.
Currently sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference and a mere three points behind second place may provide some solace to some, but things can go further south in the table quickly. If we are going to use the three point margin as a barometer, then it is only fair to say that Austin is also just three points ahead of the tenth place San Jose Earthquakes. The team has to find ways to secure as many points as possible until we can get the likes of Dani Pereira, Mikkel Desler and now Robert Taylor, healthy again.
The congested schedule is going to make lineup decisions a tall task for Nico Estévez and his staff. As we said on Episode 222, we don’t envy the spot they are in at the moment.
In my humble opinion, you rotate heavily this weekend to save your bullets for struggling Atlanta United at home on Wednesday. We know that teams that make the playoffs bank points at home, so let’s prioritize the home fixtures when we can! While I am not looking past this Cincinnati game, I will judge the team not based on the result alone, but on the eye test. I need to see a team that looks competent and competitive against an MLS team, and not just an MLS team that has zero wins through 11 matches like the LA Galaxy. At least we aren’t setting that record!
As long ago as it seems, Austin’s 1-0 road victory over LAFC back in March is proof that this team CAN win games on the road against high-quality sides. I expect a conservative approach from Nico and his staff. Cincy is a direct attacking team, who likes to press high. To counter that, it’s important for Austin FC to take care of the ball under pressure and provide outlets when needed. This team cannot afford a costly mistake that leads to an easy chance for Cincy like we saw happen multiple times against Minnesota at home last weekend. To secure any type of results, a full team effort will be required. As always, I will be supporting our team and cheering from afar. This is MLS and anything can happen – play without fear!
Injury Report
ATX:
Robert Taylor (Out - Hamstring)
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Dani Pereira (Out - Hip Flexor)
CIN:
Obinna Nwobodo (Questionable - Leg)
FC Cincinnati Players to Watch
Evander - Once more for good measure, Evander is one of the best players in the league. He is goal-lethal from quite literally anywhere in the offensive third and is a player who raises the level of those around him. Any type of lazy defense that allows him to get off a clean look at goal should be considered a mistake. The 26-year-old Brazilian midfielder should be the focal point for the defense on Saturday.
Kevin Denkey - The $16 million man is off to a hot start for the Knifey Lions in his first full season with the club. The physical and athletic striker has six goals to his name in 2025 and will be looking to add to that total against an Austin back line that has given up 2.5 goals per game over the last month. He’s another player who will require a lot of attention from ATX defensively. With the struggles Austin had with limiting the chances for Tani Oluwaseyi last week, I’m nervous to see if they’ll be able to keep Denkey off the scoresheet.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Be a “First Responder” - Look, I personally do not think the team felt great about what took place on Wednesday night against El Paso Locomotive. In fact, I believe that it felt more like a loss than a win for most folks leaving Q2 in the midweek. Austin was the vastly superior team on paper, no matter who started, and it took a seven minute flurry against a visibly gassed El Paso side to squeak out a win. We had to play two of our three DPs the entire 90 minutes, while most other MLS sides in action on the night saw their DPs either not suit up or play sparingly. Austin on the other hand had to unload the clip to get the job done. It’s in the past, and the only way to truly validate that win is to come out with a good showing against FC Cincinnati. I say be a first responder because the emergency is already here and someone needs to set the tone for our side early in this game. We have seen this team generate chances early and not convert time and time again through the first third of the 2025 season. Come out and show some life, let Cincinnati FEEL you and understand that you’re here to compete. Do that and I’ll live with the result.
Score Some Goals - It’s fun! Go do it.
Predictions
ZG - 0-1 FC Cincinnati
E - 0-2 FC Cincinnati
