Week 12 MLS Picks
Last week wasn’t kind to the picks, but we didn’t have nearly as bad of a weekend as our favorite team. The sky is not anywhere close to falling, we’re still up over 20 units overall on the season. We move!
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 12 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week, our entry was dead early after Joe Willis kept Atlanta from putting a second goal past him in the early afternoon match on Saturday. But it’s a new match week, let’s head to the board!
Starting with a similar note to last week, it appears that the unfortunate development we saw last week with the Underdog Fantasy offerings for soccer are here to stay for the time being. They’ve nerfed the options we have to choose from, offering no “lower” options for goals, shots attempted or shots on target. The “higher” props they do have listed are more often than not offered for a lower than 1x multiplier. The change isn’t limited to MLS options, with the other European games offered also not having any “lower” options for shots, though some are present for shots on target. We’ve once again made our way through the entire board and have narrowed it down to what we think is an advantageous play, but we’re also going to be contacting their support once again to voice our displeasure with the limited options given.
We’ll begin in the mid-afternoon window of games and take the GOAT for the first time this season. Our reasoning is very simple. With Inter Miami eliminated from CONCACAF Champions Cup, Lionel Messi has traveled to Minnesota and is expected to play on Saturday afternoon. With the way Underdog has changed their soccer offerings, it’s pretty wild that this line is available to us. During his time in MLS, Messi has averaged 2.33 shots on target per 90 minutes across his 2,438 minutes. Due to a combination of CCC play and injury, Messi has only appeared in seven MLS matches this season. But he’s over this number in six of those seven appearances and is averaging 2.66 shots on target per 90.
Then we’ll move into the 6:30 window and go back to Diego Rossi, who has done us well each time we’ve put him into these entries this season. The Crew are on the road against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday and the focus from a narrative standpoint will be on Daniel Gazdag, who returns to Philly just weeks after being traded to Columbus after five seasons with the Union. But our attention will be on Rossi and his shot attempts. He’s averaging 3.23 shot attempts per 90 this season, taking on a larger role for the Crew with the departure of Cucho Hernandez. Rossi is over this number in seven straight games and in nine of his 11 appearances in 2025. At the 1.05x multiplier, were riding with Rossi once again in Week 12.
Closing out the Week 12 entry with another option from the 6:30 window, this time attacking the dismal LA Galaxy. The 2024 MLS Cup Champions are on the precipice of setting a new MLS record for most matches without a win to start a season and things aren’t looking good for their chances of avoiding that fate this weekend. We all know that Riqui Puig is still out as he recovers from his ACL injury, but the Galaxy will also be without their other two DPs this weekend as Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec are both out. LA has only generated 11.0 xG through their 11 matches this season, converting that into just eight actual goals. They’ve been shut out in five of their 11 games, while the Red Bulls have kept four clean sheets through their 11 matches. If you want a third option that’s a bit less risky, feel free to use any of the secondary options listed below, but we’re riding with the Red Bulls to keep another clean sheet at home for the 1.34x multiplier
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 8.12x your entry fee if successful.
This month we’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Brad Guzan higher 1.5 goals allowed (0.89x)
Hirving Lozano higher 3.5 shots attempted
Christian Arango higher 3.5 shots attempted (1.07x)
Luis Suarez higher 2.5 shots attempted (1.05x)
Alexandros Katranis higher 0.5 shots attempted (1.1x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +14.71 U
Week 12 Picks
New York ReD Bulls (2U)
ML +105
This line is baffling to us. With the winless Galaxy in town for a rematch of the 2024 MLS Cup Final, the visitors are without all three of their DPs. The Red Bulls haven’t been great this season, but it’s wild to see them at plus-money in this spot. We’ve been digging through beat writers social media posts and (of course) the injury report for the better part of 24 hours to figure out why this line isn’t further in the Red Bulls favor. They did play Open Cup in Colorado against the Switchbacks on Tuesday, but they rotated heavily there and won handily. We’re backing the home team to win with our first two-unit pick of the season.
Seattle Sounders
ML +160
For the first time in nearly a month, we won’t be going to our favorite team at the books. But we will attack our most hated rivals, who host the Sounders on Saturday. Houston may have defeated Austin two weeks ago, but they’re still in 14th place in the Western Conference, ahead only of what remains of the once-great Galaxy. Seattle on the other hand comes into H-Town on a roll, with 10 points from their last four matches including wins over FC Dallas, Nashville SC and St. Louis City SC. This line is too high for the talent disparity between these two clubs, we’ll ride with the visitors to win outright.
Portland timbers To Win + POR/SKC O 2.5
+120
Going back to the Timbers for the third straight week as they host Sporting KC in the late window on Saturday. These two teams are over performing their xG by a wide margin, with 38 goals between them on a combined 25.3 xG. What we’re more interested in here with attacking the total is that these clubs give up more than they’ve scored, with 40 conceded between the two. Portland are -155 to win, the largest favorites on the board to win this week, while the over 2.5 total is -160. Combining them together for +120 feels like the best way to keep riding with third-place Portland on their climb up the table.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 12 shouts.
Emmanuel Latte Lath +140
Hugo Cuypers +130
Lionel Messi +135
Luis Suarez +225
Emil Forsberg +210
Diego Rossi +240
Myrto Uzuni +320
Leo Campana +310
Sam Surridge +155
Hirving Lozano +225
William Agada +245
Denis Bouanga +255
To Score 2+ goals
Lionel Messi +750 (0.5 U)
Denis Bouanga +1700 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: -3.25 U
Season: +9.47 U
