Match Preview - LAFC (Game 1)
Game Info
Kickoff: 9:42pm CT
Watch: FS1/Apple TV+
Location: BMO Stadium - Los Angeles, CA
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 4W-2D-7L record against LAFC.
For the second time in four years, Austin FC swept the regular season series with LAFC. Both wins were 1-0 results with the first being a 13th minute goal by Guilherme Biro to secure three points on the road back in March. The second was just two weeks ago during the international break, with Owen Wolff nodding home the winner in the 83rd minute off a Žan Kolmanič corner kick.
LAFC Recent Form
Without proper context, one could construct a decent argument that LAFC is entering the first round of the MLS Playoffs in shaky form. The loss two weeks ago at Austin FC was followed up by a Decision Day draw on the road against Colorado Rapids. Coming into that final regular season matchday, the Black and Gold had a chance to both move up or drop in the Western Conference table.
Ultimately, due to the results of the other clubs around them in the table, LAFC maintained the third seed that they entered Decision Day occupying. The loss against Austin came during the international break, meaning LAFC was without their two best players, Denis Bouanga (Gabon) and Heung-Min Son (South Korea). Those two returned to the squad for Decision Day but couldn’t power the Black and Gold to a victory against the Rapids, who were fighting for their playoff lives in the elevation in Colorado.
Don’t let the recent form fool you. It doesn’t take much scrolling down the schedule to see that Los Angeles came into Austin two weeks ago riding a six game winning streak, outscoring their opponents 18-4 during that stretch. 16 of those goals were scored by either Bouanga or Son.
Though that fearsome pairing is the big draw for LA, this is still one of the deepest rosters in MLS. Lots of credit needs to be given to general manager John Thorrington for the way this team has established itself as a powerhouse in this league over the eight seasons of its existence. Behind Bouanga and Son in the attack are names like striker Jeremy Ebobisse, U22 winger David Martinez and homegrown forward Nathan Ordaz.
But the depth doesn’t just stop in the attack. The LAFC midfield is loaded with an assortment of talented options like Mark Delgado, Mathieu Choiniere, Timothy Tillman and the recently acquired Jailson.
Even after an achilles injury to former MLS Defender of the Year Aaron Long, the Los Angeles backline boasts names like Nkosi Tafari, Ryan Porteus, Sergei Palencia and Ryan Hollingshead. Of course, even in the latter stages of his career, having Hugo Lloris in net is far from a weakness.
LAFC enters this first round best-of-three series as healthy as they have been in months. With this game being the final Game 1 of the first round, this is a rested squad with all the “get-back” motivation in the world against an Austin side that they haven’t beaten in MLS play since October 2023.
Austin FC Recent Form
It feels much longer than it really has been since we had an Austin FC game of consequence. Fans of the Verde and Black are used to meaningless Decision Day games, but that combined with the 18 days between the win over LAFC at Q2 during the international break and Game 1 this Wednesday, it’s been a longer than normal wait for Austin FC’s return to postseason play.
The break was certainly needed for some key pieces of the ATX lineup. DP winger Osman Bukari was held out of the Decision Day match against San Jose Earthquakes due to some soreness in his quad. Head coach Nico Estévez confirmed late last week that it was a precautionary absence and that Bukari was expected to play in Game 1.
Diego Rubio on the other hand popped up with a hamstring injury prior to the home match against LAFC and missed the final two matches of the regular season. His prognosis from Estévez was not nearly as rosy, with the gaffer deeming Rubio “week-to-week.” Not only has Rubio been ruled out for Game 1, he is also all but confirmed to miss Game 2 on Sunday after the club advertised an appearance by the Chilean forward at the pre-game party outside of Q2 Stadium.
Without the depth that Rubio provides in the attack, it is even more likely that we see ATX roll out a conservative gameplan on Wednesday night. It would be in line with how Austin worked their way to both victories over the Black and Gold during the regular season. In fact, Austin FC set a record in the first meeting back in March with just 29% possession during the match, the lowest in club history.
They weren’t quite as passive with the ball at home earlier this month, but their winnning goal came exactly 70 minutes later in the match than the one Biro snuck past Lloris in March. Of course, they also didn’t have to worry about Bouanga or Son in that second game.
I think we should expect Austin to line up in their favored-of-late five-back alignment. I mentioned on Episode 267 on Sunday that I would prefer three true centerbacks to start Game 1, while E sided with slotting in Biro as the leftmost of the centerbacks.
Even if Austin FC plays with the lowest block possible defensively, they will still have a number of chances to hurt LAFC going foward over the 90 minutes. Much has been made about the statistical underperformance of the three ATX DPs in 2025. If there’s ever a time for guys like Myrto Uzuni and Osman Bukari to silence the doubters, it’s a first round series against the stout defense of one of the hottest teams in MLS to close the season.
Injury Report
ATX:
Diego Rubio (Out - Hamstring)
Brandon Vazquez (Out - Knee)
LAFC:
Aaron Long (Out - Achilles)
Igor Jesus (Out - Knee)
Odin Holm (Out - Leg)
LAFC Players to Watch
Mark Delgado - All eyes will be on Bouanga and Son in this series, and I’m certainly excited to see the former Tottenham forward at Q2 on Sunday for Game 2. But watch out for Delgado in the LA midfield. He arrived to the Black and Gold in an offseason trade with rivals LA Galaxy and was the MLS Cup Final MVP in 2024 for his former club. Delgado is a well-rounded player on both sides of the ball and is tied for the team lead in assists this season with nine. He’s the most likely engine to spring the pair of deadly LA attackers into space on the counter.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Ugly Is Beautiful - It’s not just tough to try to go toe-to-toe with LAFC on the scoreboard, finding success in high scoring affairs is the antithesis of Austin FC in 2025. The Verde and Black scored three or more goals just twice in MLS play this season and won by multiple goals just three times. The identity of this team is not going to change in late October, so embrace what got us to this point. Is it going to look pretty on Wednesday night? Probably not. But that doesn’t mean Austin FC can’t steal Game 1. Even though both E and myself are down on the prospects of our favorite team on the road this week, if ATX is going to come back home up 1-0 in this first round series it’s not going to be asthetically pleasing to watch. But winning ugly is beautiful if you ask me, go muck things up and make LAFC grind for 90 minutes.
Predictions
ZG - 2-0 LAFC
E - 2-0 LAFC
