Week 37 MLS Picks
Three straight losing weeks has us limping into Decision Day. No matter how good the overall year has been, we need to finish things off on the right foot.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 37 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
“Boostober” continues at Underdog Fantasy, meaning we’ve got another 30% boost token to use for our entry this weekend.
We are going to close out our regular season play on UD with a trio of goals allowed props. We’ll begin in the Eastern Conference window and attack the defense of Toronto FC. They’ve been on a unique streak of late, earning eight straight draws before finally dropping last week’s match against LAFC by a 2-0 scoreline. While Toronto has only allowed 1.27 goals per game this season, the eighth best mark in MLS entering Decision Day, visiting Orlando City SC has netted 1.85 goals per game. That’s the fifth best offense in the league and when we factor in motivation headed into the final regular season match, Orlando has all of it in this game. Toronto has narrowly avoided the Wooden Spoon while Orlando are playing to avoid the wild card game in the Eastern Conference. The Lions also put four goals past Sean Johnson in the first meeting between these two teams in 2025. We’ll back them to score two or more.
Next we’re going to ride with LAFC, which has been a profitable endeavor since the arrival of Heung-Min Son in the summer transfer window. The Black and Gold can end the season as high as the second seed or as low as the fourth seed in the Western Conference. They will regain the services of Son and Denis Bouanga as they return from the international break, which should do wonders for Los Angeles offensively. They just had a six-game win streak ended by Austin FC on Sunday Night Soccer and have averaged 3.2 goals per game over the last five games Son and Bouanga both appeared. LAFC is averaging 1.91 goals per game this season and are -150 at the books to score two or more goals.
Then we’ll close things out with a North End specialty and pick on our Texas rivals. FC Dallas may have sealed their fate last Saturday night with a spectacular collapse that was worth a thousand drone shows (IYKYK), not only dropping all three points to last place LA Galaxy but also losing three key starters, including star DP striker Petar Musa, to suspension. Extremely shorthanded, they head to first place Vancouver on Saturday night where the Whitecaps need a result to clinch the Western Conference’s top seed. With no Musa, Logan Farrington or Ramiro for Frisco, along with a guaranteed 20+ units of profit on UD this season, we’re going to take a bit of a swing on Decision Day and back the ‘Caps to keep a clean sheet at a 1.28x multiplier. Vancouver leads MLS in clean sheets with 13 and have held FC Dallas scoreless for the last 230 minutes dating back to March 2024.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 30% Boostober promotion) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 9.68x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Jordan Farr O 1.5 goals allowed (0.8x)
Stefan Frei O 1.5 goals allowed
Joe Willis O 1.5 goals allowed (1.03x)
Novak Micovic O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +21.18 U
Week 37 Picks
NYCFC
ML -105
The Pigeons will play host to the one inter-conference match on Decision Day, welcoming the Seattle Sounders to Citi Field. NYCFC can finish the weekend as high as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, meaning they could host a first round playoff series. The Sounders on the other hand are locked into the fifth seed in the Western Conference and will be prioritizing health headed into the postseason. We’ll take NYCFC to win.
Vancouver Whitecaps + LAFC
ML Parlay +178
We’re backing the Whitecaps and LAFC in the Underdog Fantasy entry this weekend, so why not double up on these teams at the books? Vancouver are massive favorites at -255 and to be honest, that may be too low all things considered with the shorthanded nature of FC Dallas in this one. The ‘Caps are undefeated since Thomas Muller arrived in the summer transfer window and have won seven of their last nine games across all competitions.
LAFC need a win to lock up at least the three seed in the Western Conference. They’re on the road against Colorado Rapids, who are also playing for a postseason berth, but decidedly worse than the visitors. The ‘Pids are on a significant downward slide to end the year, earning just four points from their past six games with losses to LA Galaxy, Sporting KC, Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas in that stretch. Pairing Vancouver and LAFC together gives us a nice plus-money parlay. We wouldn’t thumb our noses at using Vancouver to win as a parlay anchor leg in almost any entry this weekend.
Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes O 3.5
+115
We coasted to victory on the under for last Sunday’s Austin FC vs LAFC match and we’re going to take the opposite stance this weekend for the Verde and Black. With nothing to play for on the ATX side of the things and everything to gain for the Quakes, getting this total at plus money feels pretty good. These two clubs have met 11 times since Austin FC joined MLS back in 2021, with an average of 4 goals scored per game and the over hitting in eight of those 11 games. San Jose games have averaged 3.63 goals this season, with that number jumping up to 4.13 goals per game at PayPal Park.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 37 shouts.
Brenner +125
Ivan Jaime +425
Tadeo Allende +390
Milan Iloski +310
Luis Muriel +195
Nicolas Mercau +320
Emmanuel Latte Lath +135
Heung-Min Son +140
Paxten Aaronson +290
Hirving Lozano +200
Rwan +215
Victor Olatunji +230
Felipe Andrade +800
Bongokuhle Hlongwane +190
Chicho +145
Results
Last Week: -1.35 U
Season: +50.45 U
