Match Preview - Minnesota United (US Open Cup Semifinal)
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:30pm CT
Watch: Paramount +
Location: Allianz Field - St. Paul, MN
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 5W-1D-5L record against Minnesota United.
The regular season series between these two clubs concluded back in May, with the two games being played three weeks apart. The first was a 3-0 victory for the Loons at Q2 Stadium, the largest home margin of defeat in Austin FC history. When a shot rolls slowly through the legs of Brad Stuver for the opening goal, you know it’s going to be a rough night.
When the teams met three weeks later, ATX arrived to St. Paul battered and bruised, playing their seventh game in 20 days. Austin FC was able to respond to an early Michael Boxall goal with an equalizer from Žan Kolmanič, his first goal with the Verde and Black. With the score knotted at 1-1 ATX was able to see the game out from there, bringing home a point, the first draw in this head-to-head series in 11 meetings.
Minnesota United Recent Form
Since the two regular season meetings back in May, the Loons have been one of the best teams in MLS, recording 28 points from their 15 league matches since May 28. Austin FC has been strong over that same stretch as well with 21 points from 13 games, but Minnesota’s run has been a bit more impressive, notching road wins over Real Salt Lake, St. Louis City SC, FC Dallas, Seattle Sounders and first place San Diego FC. They also picked up home victories over the Sounders, Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes.
Minnesota’s roster looks slightly different from the last time we saw them take on the Verde and Black. It was an active transfer window for the Loons, transferring Tani Oluwaseyi to Villareal for an $8 million fee, trading Sang-Bin Jeong to St. Louis City for $1.35 million and loaning Kipp Keller to New Mexico United in the USL Championship.
Minnesota then went shopping to fully restock their attack, buying midfielder Nectarios Triantis from Sunderland for $2.5 million along with attacking midfielder Dominik Fitz from Vienna for $2 million. They also brought in left winger Kenyel Michel from Alajuelense for $1.1 million and forward Mamadou Dieng for $250k from Hartford Athletic of the USL Championship.
Michel was loaned back to Alajuelense for the remainder of the season, but the remaining trio of newbies made their Loons debut on the road against first place San Diego on Saturday night. All three of Minnesota’s goals were scored after Fitz and Triantis entered as substitutes in the 63rd minute of action, and Triantis made a statement in his limited time, assisting Carlos Harvey in the 77th minute before scoring from behind midfield in stoppage time on what is surely a goal of the year candidate.
The victory fuels Minnesota’s momentum headed into Wednesday’s semifinal. This marks the second time in club history that the Loons have qualified for the final four of the US Open Cup, after their 2019 run saw them reach the final before ultimately losing to Atlanta United, who had won MLS Cup the season prior.
With the departure of Oluwaseyi, DP striker Kelvin Yeboah has picked up the slack to the best of his ability, recording six goal contributions in his last ten starts. He also picked up a brace in the Loons US Open Cup quarterfinal match against Chicago Fire back on July 8th. He profiles as the exact type of forward that Austin FC has struggled with of late, big and physical with the ability to score from the ground or in the air.
Minnesota is likely the biggest “smash and grab” team in MLS this season. They’re dead last in average possession (38.9%) but have generated the 15th most expected goals (xG), score the ninth most goals per game at 1.7 and concede the fewest per game at 1.1 (tied with Vancouver Whitecaps and Philadelphia Union). Austin FC got a taste of this style in the 3-0 loss in early May, when Minnesota scored their three goals on 0.51 xG. That’s eerily similar to what the Loons did to win in San Diego on Saturday night, scoring their three goals on just 0.5 xG.
It’s not just the offense that is efficient, the defense is physical, averaging the fourth most fouls per match. However, the team maintains this style while staying on the good side of the officials, as they’re 17th in yellow cards. Even if you’re able to match that physicality and generate chances, Dayne St. Clair (who was one of Brad Stuver’s MLS All-Star Game teammates back in July) is patrolling the net. He’s been one of the better keepers in MLS for a few years now and is second in post-shot xG per 90 (one of the best metrics we have for measuring a goalkeeper’s shot stopping ability) behind only Toronto FC’s Sean Johnson.
The Loons are one of the best teams in MLS and it is no surprise that they’ve advanced to the semifinals of the US Open Cup. They’ll be favored in any win-probability algorithm (and at the sports books) in this match as the home team.
Austin FC Recent Form
The vibes were incredibly low as E and I walked out of Toyota Stadium in Frisco on Saturday night. As my co-host mentioned on Sunday’s Episode 256, there was quite literally nothing for us to cheer about in that match.
But with the quick turnaround to the trip up to St. Paul for Wednesday’s semifinal match, there’s little time to dwell on the most recent outing for the Verde and Black. We’ll do the same and keep our eyes forward. If you want to hear the full extent of our complaints, make sure to check out Sunday’s episode.
Head coach Nico Estévez was able to manage the minutes of key players against FC Dallas, one positive as we look ahead to the midweek. Osman Bukari played 63 minutes, his lowest minutes output in a start since the 3-0 loss to Minnesota United in early May. Owen Wolff and Guilherme Biro were subbed out after 73 minutes, while Myrto Uzuni and Besard Sabovic played just 27 minutes each off the bench.
On top of that the club held Ilie Sanchez, who has dealt with back spasms over the last month but returned in a reserve role against Sporting KC, out completely as an unused substitute. They even left Mikkel Desler back in Austin to rest up for this match.
With the double game week on the schedule, our typical midweek press availability was on Monday morning. The collective exhale you may have heard around town around this time was due to Estévez confirming that everyone but Brandon Vazquez is ready to go for the semifinal. That means the injury report is as clean as it can be headed into Wednesday and Estévez has as many tools to work with as possible.
We have heard comments from Austin FC players about how important this US Open Cup run is to them as far back as mid-July, when Dani Pereira told the crew of Soccerwise and an audience of die-hard supporters gathered at Haymaker during the MLS All-Star break that the players want to win the cup “even more than the fans do.” Similar sentiments have been shared by Brad Stuver, Brendan Hines-Ike and Jon Gallagher over the last two weeks.
While the 2025 version of Austin FC has been anything but consistent, they have shown the ability to bounce back in the face of adversity. The most recent example of this was the loss at lowly CF Montreal, an embarrassing outing that came on the heels of two disappointing home draws. But the Verde and Black rebounded with a 3-1 home win against San Jose and followed it up with a comeback road victory over Sporting KC.
Now as they make their second of four possible trips to Allianz Field in 2025 (if the season ended today these two clubs would meet in the first round of the MLS playoffs, with Minny the higher seed for the best-of-3 series), the Verde and Black are faced with another chance to respond. There’s zero question in my mind that the players and coaches have the desire and the will to win this match and advance to host the US Open Cup final in Austin next month.
Those two attributes are nice and all, but ATX will have to overcome what I perceive as a talent-imbalance between the two rosters, along with a strong run of form from the Loons and a raucous home crowd eager to host the final themselves and win their first trophy as an MLS club.
Injury Report
This is an estimate based on coach comments and recent injury reports. US Open Cup matches don’t require official injury reports to be released to the public.
ATX:
Brandon Vazquez (Out - Knee)
MIN:
None listed
Minnesota United Players to Watch
Kelvin Yeboah - The 25-year-old Ghanaian striker arrived to MLS in the 2024 summer transfer window and hit the ground running, recording eight goal contributions over his nine appearances. Unsurprisingly, he hasn’t been able to keep up that torrid MVP-level pace over the course of a full season in 2025, but Yeboah does have nine goals and three assists in his 29 appearances this year, more than any one player on the Austin FC roster. He’s found more space to operate up top after the departure of Oluwaseyi and has the physical stature and skill level to give ATX a major headache at the back.
Joaquin Pereyra - Another summer 2024 DP arrival, Pereyra did not get off to the rip-roaring start in the stat sheet like Yeboah, but he’s assumed the role of the team’s best field player (especially with Oluwaseyi out of the picture) over his first full calendar year with the Loons. The 26-year old Argentinian has four goals and a team-leading ten assists across his 29 league appearances. Pereyra scored once and also caused the own goal against Austin in the first meeting this season, so he’s already proven to be a thorn in the side of the Verde and Black.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Survive and Advance - Same as the quarterfinal against San Jose on the road, this is a game that doesn’t have to look pretty, but it is one that you must find a way to win. There’s a big job to do for Austin’s fullbacks, who will have to contend with a talented midfield and a pair of dangerous wingbacks bearing down on them on the counter. The ATX attack must be on point, as we expect the Loons to let Austin possess the ball a ton. The stale and static look the Verde and Black rolled out there against Dallas last weekend will get you blown out if you don’t sharpen things up. I’m not saying it has to look perfect, or even good. But it has to be better than what we saw on Saturday night to even think about competing with Minnesota United in their house. No Austin FC fan will care how you get it done in this one fellas, survive and advance.
Predictions
ZG - 2-0 Minnesota United
E - 1-1 Austin FC advances in penalties
