Match Preview - New York Red Bulls
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 0W-1D-1L record against New York Red Bulls.
The first time we saw these two clubs square off was at Q2 Stadium in the summer of 2022. That match was a thrilling watch, especially for any neutrals who may have tuned in, as NYRB built a 4-1 halftime lead that Austin FC (on the back of some Sebastián Driussi heroics) nearly recovered from. It is notable that Andrew Tarbell started for Brad Stuver in that match.
The last time these two teams met was in New Jersey late in the 2023 season, a 1-1 draw that was a big blow to Austin’s waning playoff chances that year.
New York Red Bulls Recent Form
One of the original ten MLS teams, the club was known as the New York/New Jersey MetroStars for the first decade of play before being bought by Red Bull in 2006. With the acquisition, the franchise also got a new stadium and a host of new exciting talent, including names like Claudio Reyna and Jozy Altidore. Though the team was able to qualify for the playoffs in nine of their first 12 seasons, NYRB didn’t earn their first trophy until 2013 when they won their first Supporter’s Shield. Since then they’ve accomplished that feat twice more, taking the Shield in both 2015 and 2018.
NYRB currently holds the longest postseason appearance streak in MLS, making the playoffs in each of the last 15 seasons. No other club has more than five (Orlando City SC). Last year, the Red Bulls snuck into the playoffs as a seven seed in the Eastern Conference and marched all the way to an MLS Cup Final appearance, where they fell to the eventual champion LA Galaxy 2-1.
Lately things have been going swimmingly for the Red Bulls. They’ve won three league matches in a row and like Austin FC, are still alive in the US Open Cup. Currently they are sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference as New York has accumulated 27 points through their first 17 league games. The team’s +9 goal differential is tied for the second best mark in the conference.
The Red Bulls are paced by their DP attacking duo of Emil Forsberg and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. They play a fast-paced style that is centered around their high-pressing tactics. They are top three in the league in possession won in the final third of the pitch and second with 11.9 tackles per match. These two stats illustrate the aggressive style that Red Bulls soccer is known for not only in MLS, but on a global scale as well. For what it’s worth, If you dive a little deeper into the stats it appears the club hasn’t been as aggressive in road matches this season, but it’s still the core philosophy of the team as it has been for over a decade now.
New York is one spot behind Austin FC in total xG in 2025 with 23.0 generated compared to Austin’s 23.6 xG thus far in 2025, though it’s fair to note ATX has played one more league game than their opponent this weekend. The important difference offensively is that New York is outscoring ATX by a wide margin, exceeding their xG by five goals, while Austin is under performing theirs by ten.
Perhaps the most well kept secret of the Red Bulls success this season is the play of goalkeeper Carlos Coronel. Austin FC and New York are tied with 1.1 goals conceded per match, the sixth best mark in MLS. But Coronel’s individual play has been a big factor rather than the overall defensive structure of the team, as he leads the league in post-shot xG per 90 and is having one of the best seasons for a keeper across MLS. We’re likely to see Coronel in Austin again next month for the MLS All-Stars.
I bring up these stats to illustrate that these teams are quite similar on paper, but the fact is that New York has had more clinical finishing in and around the penalty area whereas Austin FC continues to struggle. It’s also probably fair to mention that NYRB have had a bit more luck than Austin has had this year with the officials – five of their goals have come from the penalty spot this season.
Looking back at the Red Bulls first half of the season, it’s challenging to find more than one victory against a quality opponent. Their schedule has been relatively easy when you look at the strength of their opponents to date. ZG and I debated what a “quality win” means to us on Episode 232, with my co-host pointing to an early season home win versus Nashville on March 1st as the only win over a “quality” opponent to date for NYRB in league play. In turn, I pointed out that the 7-0 thrashing of LA Galaxy, no matter who is healthy, is a “quality” win in my book given the scoreline. It is fair to note that LA was without all three of their DPs for that game, but New York handled their business and then some.
The aggressive, pressing style that the Red Bulls play is how they generate a lot of their chances. Players are pushed up the pitch, smothering opposing players who are trying to play out of the back. After causing turnovers they like to play direct and center the ball to the crafty Forsberg to lead the counter. Forsberg has ten goal contributions to his name in 2025, evenly split between goals and assists. With ten goals from striker Chuopo-Moting, the Red Bulls have a lethal combination in the center of the park on the offensive side of the ball.
Ball security will be of the utmost importance for Austin FC as the Red Bulls try to dictate the pace of this game.
Austin FC Recent Form
It always feels good to win and I imagine that we aren’t the only Austin FC fans who are feeling a little rejuvenated after the brutal month of May. Coming off a decisive 2-0 road victory over the Colorado Rapids, Austin FC currently sits in seventh place in the Western Conference.
Mikkel Desler opened the scoring (and his account in an Austin FC uniform) in the sixth minute against Colorado, coming off a deflected Dani Pereira shot that was surely going to find the back of the net regardless if Desler touched the ball or not. Austin found an insurance goal in the second half that came off another deflection, this time the head of the Rapid’s Rafael Navarro on an Owen Wolff corner kick. It looked more than likely that the contact that Brandon Hines-Ike made before the ball ricocheted off Navarro’s head could have secured Austin the goal towards the far post, but the Verde and Black faithful will take it either way.
Finally in shape and healthy, fans are starting to be reminded of the impact Mikkel Desler has on this club. The right side of the field, where Desler and Bukari are paired, has become one of the more exciting aspects of Austin’s overall game. Desler, a sound and heady defender, not only shores up the backline, but provides class on the offensive side of the pitch as well. Yes, Bukari and Desler have only combined for two league goals this season, but they haven’t had a ton of time together on the field and how that pair operates together is something to be very excited about going forward.
Myrto Uzuni is officially back in the fold after going overseas during the international break for two World Cup qualifiers with his native Albania and to meet his newborn child for the first time. Uzuni came off the bench for both matches over the break and should be physically fresher than he was after the flurry of May fixtures. Maybe more importantly, the break provided him an opportunity to be with his loved ones and celebrate the birth of his baby. Personally, I am glad Myrto had the chance to do that and am hoping that he can put the first half of the season behind him as Austin FC moves into the stretch run with a favorable schedule.
I would also be surprised if Uzuni is immediately thrust back into the starting lineup after the performance the team put on last Saturday. Nico and his staff shifted things around a bit in his absence and it absolutely worked. Jon Gallagher got the start on the left wing before being shifted to right back at the 60-minute mark. He was exceptional all evening. His presence on the left through the first hour, paired with Guillerme Biro, ignited life on that side of the pitch for Austin – a side that has largely been absent from threatening opponent’s during the first half of the season.
Dani Pereira, fully healed from his hip flexor injury, also got another start and made his presence felt all night long. Pereira is a much better athlete than Ilie Sanchez or Besard Sabovic and his play of late has been awesome. The team looked much more direct in their attack and the chance creation numbers proved that as well. With four big chances created, it’s not crazy to think that Austin should have had more than two goals against Colorado, which brings me to my last point.
While all the components I’ve mentioned above are coming together, Austin is still struggling mightily with finishing. Brandon Vazquez leads the league in goals minus expected goals (G-xG). BV has racked up 9.42 xG this year, but only has four goals to show for it. The team is consistently finding him in threatening areas, but the goals aren’t coming. While he still leads the team in goals, it’s not saying much given Austin’s meager 13 goals for on the season. On top of that, Uzuni is also struggling to score. With just one goal in MLS play this year and 4.62 xG, Myrto finds himself near the top of the G-xG list as well – a place you don’t want one, much less two of your DPs to be.
There will be opportunities to score against this fast-paced Red Bulls team. They are susceptible to counters and can also break down as games progress. It will be important for Austin to have clean possession and limit turnovers, particularly ones in their own half.
We know how important winning at home is in MLS and Austin has a great opportunity in front of them to secure back-to-back wins in the league and begin to turn the tide in Central Texas as the second half of the regular season continues.
Injury Report
ATX:
Julio Cascante (Out - Hamstring)
Jimmy Farkarlun (Out - Hamstring)
NYRB:
Dylan Nealis (Questionable - Hamstring)
Serge Ngoma (Questionable - Back)
Marcelo Morales (Questionable - Thigh)
Wiktor Bogacz (Out - International Duty)
Omar Valencia (Out - Shoulder)
Roald Mitchell (Out - Hamstring)
New York Red Bulls Players to Watch
Eric Maxim Chuopo-Moting - The former PSG and Bayern Munich forward is off to one of his best starts for any club in his tenured career. Chuopo-Moting was oft injured over the last six seasons for those two clubs, but that hasn’t been the case thus far in MLS. With over 1,400 minutes played in his 17 matches this year, he’s already played more minutes this season than in any of his last six. With 10 goals to his name, he leads the Red Bulls in scoring and is within shouting distance of the golden boot lead. The 36-year old Cameroonian is a crafty and physical player who is solid in the air. He could give the ATX defense fits, especially on set pieces.
Emil Forsberg - Formerly with Red Bull Leipzig, Forsberg is New York’s best player. He is an attacking midfielder with the vision, control, and goal-scoring abilities to be considered a high-quality number 10 in this league. With ten goal contributions, five goals and five assists, Forsberg is as good at getting teammates involved as he is finding goal-scoring opportunities for himself. He is the engine that makes the Red Bulls offense move and is often the target of passes after turnovers thanks to his ability to quickly turn and diagnose the defense in front of him.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Finish Your Dinner - We’ve beaten this stat to death by now but it’s a key factor in telling the story of the season to this point, Austin FC is underperforming their xG by the widest margin in the league. The chances are being created but the finishing has not been clinical. This matchup should yield plenty of opportunities to score goals, as the Red Bulls frenetic pace usually opens games up, particularly up the middle of the pitch. Considering the success the NYRB offense has found in 2025, Austin will likely need to score goals (plural!) to see this one out. Take care of the rock and don’t leave any scraps on your plate when the time comes to score goals. The rest should take care of itself.
Predictions
ZG - 2-0 Austin FC
E - 2-1 Austin FC
