Week 18 MLS Picks
Oh so close to a big week last time out, but that’s what we get for counting on Houston to do anything right! With the international break slowing things down in MLS this weekend, we’ve only got five games on tap this matchday. We’ll sift through the limited options to find some juicy lines to attack.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 18 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
Underdog has frustrated us once again. Not only are they still rolling out lines that are significantly nerfed compared to the rest of the market, now they’re slow rolling the shot props for the three Sunday matches. But fear not, we’ve got a strong three-pick play that has arisen out of the stench of this weekend’s board.
We’ll begin with the first Saturday night match and attack the DC United defense (as we’ll do again momentarily). Luis Barraza has been solid in relief of the injured Kim Joon-Hong, but the home side has been hit hard on the availability report by both injury and international duty. Somewhat surprisingly, Chicago has been one of the best road teams in MLS this season, with five away wins through the first half of the season. They’re -115 to go over 1.5 goals scored in this one so getting the 1.05x multiplier is a rarity given how Underdog has been treating MLS props. DC United has also allowed the fifth most shots on target in the league meaning the Fire, with most of their “top” attacking players active for this one, are in a great spot to ripple the net multiple times.
Then we’ll head to the nightcap on Saturday and go with a familiar face in Osman Bukari. While he’s averaging just 0.78 shots on target per 90 minutes this season, he’s been finding better form of late. Bukari has recorded at least one shot on target in seven of his last 11 starts. Austin is on the road taking on Colorado Rapids this weekend and the home side has allowed the eighth most shots on target in MLS this season. Is it our favorite prop of the season? No. But at the standard 1x multiplier it’s one of the better options on the board.
Closing out the Week 18 entry with another goals allowed prop, this time from one of the three Sunday games on the schedule. St. Louis City SC got the late win last weekend thanks to a stoppage time penalty conceded by San Jose. Burki has been one of the best shot stoppers in MLS since his arrival, but he’s been a little shaky of late. Burki has given up two or more goals in three of his last five starts since returning from a broken hand and is averaging exactly two goals conceded per game in that stretch. St. Louis City also allows the most shot attempts to opponents in MLS and Portland are a massive -180 to score more than 1.5 goals at the books. We rarely take a prop with a 0.8x multiplier, but it’s advantageous even at the low number.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.04x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry. Once shot attempt props are posted for the Sunday games, we may add additional secondary plays here.
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen O 1.5 goals allowed (1.45x)
Brian Gutierrez O 2.5 shots attempted (1.18x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +8.71 U
Week 18 Picks
Chicago Fire To Win + O 1.5 DC/CHI
ML +185
The first game of the weekend takes us to DC where United is hosting Chicago Fire. There are a ton of absences in this one, with 20 total players combined between the two teams on the availability report due to injury or international duty. The importance of those absences are not all equal. In addition to Christian Benteke still being out due to injury, DC is missing five starters from last week’s match. The Fire are a deeper roster and will still be able to roll out guys like Jonathan Bamba, Phillip Zinckernagel and Brian Gutierrez (DP striker Hugo Cuypers is questionable). This game should have a healthy amount of goals as well. DC United games have gone over 1.5 goals in 13 of 17 league matches, while Chicago matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 13 of their 15 MLS games. Chicago is also one of the best road teams in the league through the first half of the season. They’re one of two teams (with Philadelphia Union being the other) that has five away wins in 2025. DC United on the other hand has only won two of their nine home matches. We’ll pair the over 1.5 total with the Fire to win to start the short weekend off with a bang.
Portland Timbers
ML -130
As of this writing, we don’t have the injury reports for the Sunday matches yet (Note: Here it is, it’s even better for Portland than we thought), but we do know that the only player of consequence that they Timbers are missing to international duty is goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau. With James Pantemis playing just fine in relief this season, we’ve got no issues going to the home side here hosting the low octane St. Louis City SC. Since losing their home opener to Vancouver Whitecaps in late February (a match that saw the Timbers go down to ten men less than 15 minutes into the game), Portland is undefeated at Providence Park. St. Louis City on the other hand is the second worst road side in MLS, with just five points from their eight away matches. Portland to win.
Seattle Sounders
ML +100
A lot has been made about the health of the Vancouver Whitecaps after Tom Bogert reported that so many of them got sick after returning home from Sunday’s CONCACAF Champions Cup final against Cruz Azul that they had to cancel training on Wednesday. Har Johal, who you may have heard on Swoontower Soccer helping to preview the two matches between Austin FC and Vancouver earlier this season, relayed that head coach Jesper Sorensen is unsure which of his players will even be available on Sunday. In turn, we’re going to ride with the visiting Sounders to win at even money, who are essentially unaffected by the international window.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 18 shouts.
Phillip Zinckernagel +290
Jonathan Bamba +425
Gabriel Priani +330
Brandon Vazquez +200
Robert Taylor +425
Dejan Joveljic +240
Albert Rusnak +205
Results
Last Week: +0.06 U
Season: +11.61 U
