Week 10 MLS Picks
Back in late March things started to click for us at the books and after a five week stretch of mostly positive results, we’re back in the black headed into Week 10 of the MLS season.
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 10 picks.
Pick’Em Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have a pick’em entry for you to tail if your heart desires. This week we’re playing on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
Somewhat of a limited MLS board this weekend at Underdog Fantasy, which is always a bit of a bummer. That said, we’ve got a number of spots posted that feel advantageous. We’ll begin in Cincinnati, where the Knifey Lions are hosting the New York Red Bulls. As we’ll also discuss later in the article, Cincy have listed their top five center backs as out for this match. Their defense has been suspect since last season, where Cincinnati were the biggest xGA over performers in MLS to the tune of 11.7 goals, more than three higher than the next closest team’s total. That’s actually flipped on it’s head in 2026, with the team conceding a massive 9.9 more goals than expected thus far. While that should come back closer to normal over the course of the season, it’s unlikely things go swimmingly on the defensive side tonight for the home team. We’ll take the Red Bulls to score two or more goals at the 1.12x multiplier.
We’ll stay in the 6:30 window and, possibly foolishly, back the porous Orlando City SC defense against an anemic DC United offense on the road. DC has scored fewer than two goals in seven of their nine matches this season, and six of their eight total goals were scored in the two misses. Orlando has conceded two or more goals in five of their nine games so far this season, but those overs were to the likes of LAFC, Nashville SC, Inter Miami, NYCFC and NYRB. At least when it comes to the first four teams listed, those are some of the best teams in MLS. Both Tai Baribo and Louis Munteanu are questionable for DC and if they both miss this match it’s unlikely this prop will stay at 1.05x for long.
Finally, we go to Nashville where Charlotte FC is in town. It’s important to note that Nashville SC is gearing up for the first leg of their CCC semifinal matchup against Tigres on Tuesday night. But that game is in Nashville, so there will be no travel required, plus Sam Surridge is off the injury report and should be good to go for this one. Nashville has been one of the stronger home sides in the league for a while now and have scored two or more goals in all three home fixtures this season after doing so in 11 of 17 home league matches in 2025. They already put up two goals on Charlotte when these teams met earlier this month and are also -182 at the books to do so again on Saturday.
Using the standard payout selection (and the 40% profit boost token dropped in users accounts on Friday) on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 8.79x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games, want to make additional entries or one of the given options doesn’t start. Patreon members can feel free to reach out and discuss picks in the Discord. As always, the additional plays are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
John Pulskamp O 2.5 goals allowed
Evander O 1.5 shots on target (0.95x)
Jonathan Bond O 1.5 goals allowed (1.11x)
Matt Freese U 1.5 goals allowed (0.82x)
Zack Steffen U 2.5 goals allowed (0.94x)
Lucas Hoyos O 1.5 goals allowed
Results
Last Week: -1.0 U
Season: -1.08 U
Week 9 Picks
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United
U 2.5 +110
Another early home kickoff for Toronto FC, who has been over performing their xG this season at the second highest rate in MLS (behind only Colorado Rapids). They’ll play host to Atlanta United, who have just seven goals scored in their nine league matches. The Five Stripes will once again be without Miguel Almiron, while Djordje Mihailovic remains sidelined for Toronto. We’re going to back the first game of the match day to be a snoozer at plus money.
New York Red Bulls
ML +265
The “Baby Bulls” have been a fun story in the first quarter of the MLS season. They’ve also been one of the more inconsistent sides, conceding the second most goals of any team through nine games. They’re on the road this weekend taking on FC Cincinnati, who are tied with New York at 23 goals conceded. More importantly, Cincy will be missing their top five center backs headed into this one, with Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga, Teenage Hadebe, Nick Hagglund and Alvas Powell all listed as out. We’ll back the visitors to steal all three points in this one considering the price going up against a makeshift defense.
Austin FC
ML +190
If you want to pass on a team with just a single victory on the season, we get it. But we’re going to the Verde & Black to get the job done against Houston on Saturday. The Dynamo have been beaten by Austin FC eight times in ATX’s first five seasons, the most victories against any MLS team for Austin. Six of those wins have come in the eight all-time meetings at Q2 Stadium. Austin rotated so heavily in the midweek that they only had three of their top eleven paid field players in the starting lineup against San Jose. They were clearly targeting this home fixture as the “more important” of the two this week and it appears ATX finally has some positive injury news, with Owen Wolff upgraded to questionable for the first time in 2026, he could be a boost for the team off the bench. It’s a must win spot for multiple reasons in Austin here, we’ll back them to get the job done.
San Diego FC
-125
Slowly but surely, San Diego are getting healthy on their back line. It hasn’t just been injuries plaguing last season’s top seed in the Western Conference, they’ve also been shown four red cards in their nine league games. This weekend they return home to Snapdragon Stadium to host Portland Timbers, who have over performed both their xG and xGA this season and still sit on just seven points. This is a get-right spot for San Diego to get three points after four straight losses in league play.
Seattle Sounders vs FC DAllas
U 2.5 +125
Important injury designations are fueling this additional pick in the late window on Saturday. The Sounders will be without a number of starters, like Yeimar and Cristian Roldan, and have other key players like Albert Rusnak listed as questionable. On the other side, FC Dallas has listed both Logan Farrington and Petar Musa questionable with lower body injuries after their 1-0 home loss in the midweek. There’s also precedent for this matchup to be low scoring, with seven of the last eight meetings at Lumen Field between these two teams going under this number dating back to 2020.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 10 shouts.
Heung-Min Son +200
Dejan Joveljic +220
Wilfried Zaha +400
Kerwin Vargas +550
Jayden Nelson +425
Facundo Torres +280
Mateusz Bogusz +310
Gabriel Pec +185
Morgan Guilavogui +255
Zavier Gozo +400
To Score Or Assist
Emil Forsberg +115
Martin Ojeda +160
Eduard Lowen +160
Paxten Aaronson +280
Snyder Brunell +280
Diego Luna +130
Results
Last Week: +7.13 U
2026 Season: +5.4 U
