Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 8W-1D-5L all-time record against Houston Dynamo.
Last season these teams met three times, the first of which was a 2-0 win for the Dynamo at their place in April. Austin FC came into that match missing Brandon Vazquez due to illness and lost Dani Pereira to injury midway through the first half.
Then they squared off again a few weeks later in the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 in Austin, where the Verde & Black made a rotated Houston lineup pay, advancing relatively easily by a 3-1 scoreline.
The final meeting of 2025 came at Q2 Stadium in August where ATX took a 2-0 lead only to see Houston’s Jack McGlynn score two goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to steal a point.
Austin FC won the first match ever between these two, they’re the last ones to win a game in this series and they’ve won the most in this series. Austin’s eight wins over Houston are the most Austin FC has over any MLS club in their six year history.
Houston Dynamo Recent Form
When you take the mask off of this franchise Scooby Doo style it reveals the first edition of the San Jose Earthquakes. The Dynamo began MLS play in 2006 after the Quakes left San Jose due to a failure to secure a soccer-specific stadium, moving the defending Supporter’s Shield winners to Texas.
Upon the move to Houston, the loaded roster came along as well, which led to the Dynamo winning back-to-back MLS Cup titles in both 2006 and 2007. As one of the preeminent Houston Dynamo haters I would like readers to note that on top of having a championship roster transplanted to the city, there were also only 12 teams in the league at the time of the Orange team’s two MLS trophies.
Since then, Houston fans have endured a mostly inept operation, though it’s also unfair to leave out the success they have found in the U.S. Open Cup, winning the tournament in both 2018 and 2023.
Looking to rebound from a 2025 campaign which saw the Dynamo miss the MLS Cup playoffs for the third time in five seasons, Houston began rebuilding their roster with some talented acquisitions over the off season that have been paying dividends early in the year.
On paper, the most talented of the bunch is 24-year-old Mateusz Bogusz, who joined the team after a year with Cruz Azul in Liga MX. Austin fans should remember Bogusz from his time with LAFC in the two season prior, where his impressive 2024 campaign that included 21 goal contributions led to the eventual $9 million transfer south of the border. Bogusz is a dangerous player in space and has a cannon of a right foot. He plays with pace and physicality, and if Austin FC doesn’t account for him on the counter attack he will make them pay. Bogusz may have just a single goal to his name through eight league games, but it came as a shorthanded game winner on the counter against Portland back on March 14.
The most successful acquisition of the off season so far has been the other new attacking DP, Guilherme, who checks in with five goals and four assists so far in the young season. He has been the most dynamic player offensively for this team and has already exceeded expectations through his first couple of months in MLS.
Last but not least is Hector Herrera, who rejoins Houston after spending 2025 with Toluca in Liga MX. Verde & Black fans are all too familiar with Herrera, who has 90 all-time appearances for Houston. The storied Mexican defensive midfielder can still cause problems for opposing teams and is great with the ball at his feet in possession, picking out teammates to progress the ball forward. At 36, he is definitely past his prime years, but Herrera is still a formidable presence on the defensive side of the ball.
Houston is off to a decent start in 2026 and are currently holding the wild card line, sitting in ninth place in the Western Conference. Houston has looked like a much better team at home than they have on the road so far this season with nine points from four games at Shell Energy Stadium so far with victories over Chicago Fire, Portland Timbers, and San Diego FC.
The Dynamo are last in MLS in average possession and they have embraced a counter-attacking approach thus far, due largely in part to the strengths of their new pair of designated attacking players. Slowing down those two, along with DP striker Ezequiel Ponce, will need to be front of mind for Austin’s defensive unit.
As always, the temperature is turned up a bit in this Copa Tejas matchup, and even with a midweek fixture looming against Louisville City FC in the Open Cup on Wednesday, Houston’s undivided attention will most certainly be on kicking Austin FC while they’re down.
Austin FC Recent Form
Well, this sucks. Austin FC is in a death spiral right now and there are fires all over the place when it comes to the injury report, the coaching staff and the player personnel, with some fans also pointing fingers at the front office.
It’s hard to blame anyone feeling disgusted with how ATX has started this season. Not only does the team have just one win through nine league matches, they were also convincingly bounced from U.S. Open Cup in the Round of 32 by USL side Louisville City FC.
Following that “cupset”, we saw Austin fumble a win away in the waning moments of regulation on the road against Toronto FC in a match that ultimately ended 3-3. Days later, the team traveled to San Jose and were absolutely throttled by the current Supporter’s Shield leaders, 5-1.
As we discussed on Episode 301, when the score was 2-1, or even at 3-1 in that game, both ZG and I were not super upset. It was clear that Nico and his team were prioritizing the Houston game at home with a starting lineup that featured CJ Fodrey, Jorge Alastuey and Besard Sabovic. However, when the scoreline reached 4-1 and subsequently ended in a 5-1 defeat, it was nearly impossible for the collective blood pressure of the North End boys to maintain a healthy reading.
After conceding a penalty kick in the 58th minute, Austin absolutely crumbled. Beginning in the 78th minute, San Jose reeled off four goals by the 89th minute, routing Austin in spectacular fashion. With head coach Nico Estévez already on the hot seat, an embarrassing defeat like that left some fans speculating if a coaching change would be made before the weekend fixture against Houston. That did not happen, but if the results don’t take a turn for the better quickly, Estévez may be sent packing in the coming weeks.
Another gigantic issue that has persisted all season is the health, or lack thereof, of Brandon Vazquez and Owen Wolff. With neither player expected to debut this weekend (Vazquez’s final appointment with team doctors was finally revealed to be taking place next week), that guarantees that the calendar will at least turn to May before we see #9 or #33 on the pitch for Austin in 2026. The fact that we were told initially that Wolff would “make a full recovery by mid-to-late February” is mind boggling.
It cannot be overstated how much the team misses both of these players. Wolff was the engine that made Austin’s offense look somewhat watchable last season and is the one player who has consistently proven that he can advance the ball through the midfield and distribute to our attacking players. Without that aspect to Austin’s game, the attack is left relatively isolated from the rest of the squad and not finding themselves in advantageous attacking situations. Vazquez is of course also a focal point for the offense and a huge target in the middle of the field for hold up play when progressing the ball and for crosses into the box in the final third. All the evidence from his first half-season with Austin is that Vazquez is the player the offense was built around, and being without him has left Austin looking mostly lost and unsure of themselves on the offensive side of the ball.
As I mentioned back on Sunday’s Episode 300, the downgraded performance of the defense has largely gone overlooked since Austin’s offensive output has been so pathetic for so long. What was once viewed as one of the best defensive units in MLS not even a year ago has been conceding all kinds of chances to opposing offenses. ZG brought the expected goals against (xGA) stats to light on Thursday’s episode and made it clear once again that if it were not for the heroic efforts of Bradley Scott Stuver, this team would be in even more trouble than they are at present.
The start to this season has been very, very rough. Austin has likely experienced the worst injury luck in the league and has surely felt hard done by more than one officiating decision during the early parts of the campaign. While I do believe this is the unluckiest start to any season so far in the 512, it can also be true that the team is just simply not good enough. Whatever the reality is, what’s guaranteed is that bad and unlucky is never a winning formula.
Austin has an opportunity on Saturday to build some positive momentum. A win over a Texas rival at home goes a long way for the vibes and the team desperately needs some positivity as the World Cup break draws nearer by the day.
(Edit: Owen Wolff has been upgraded to questionable for Saturday’s match, a strong indicator the player will be active on match day)
Injury Report
ATX:
Owen Wolff (Questionable - Sports Hernia)
Robert Taylor (Out - Knee)
Dani Pereira (Out - Hamstring)
Brandon Vazquez (Out - Knee)
HOU:
Jack McGlynn (Questionable - Lower Body)
Ondrej Lingr (Out - Red Card Suspension)
Lucas Halter (Out - Lower Body)
Houston Dynamo Players to Watch
Guilherme - After arriving as a Designated Player in the off season, Guilherme has hit the ground running in Houston. The 31-year-old winger had 95 goals and 44 assists across his 429 professional appearances prior to the season, but he’s already accumulated five goals and four assists in eight league games with the Dynamo. He’s been the leader for this squad early in the season and through the first quarter of the schedule looks like a big win for the Houston front office.
Mateusz Bogusz - The second of the two new DPs this club brought in over the off season, the 24-year-old Polish forward has been underwhelming, especially compared to his less expensive counterpart. With just one goal and one assist through his eight league starts, Bogusz is a far cry from his 0.72 goal contribution per 90 minute pace he posted in 2024 with LAFC. But as has been the case for many struggling star players in MLS over the last few seasons, a trip to Q2 Stadium might be just what the doctor ordered for the struggling attacker.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
F*ck Houston - These teams don’t like each other and it usually shows when they meet up. Saturday’s match should be no different. The faces have changed over the years, but the tension between these two geographically neighboring clubs will last forever. With all the negativity swirling around Austin FC right now, the team is in dire need of any sort of positive momentum. No matter who it’s against, one win is not a cure all for the issues plaguing the Verde & Black at the moment, but it would be a building block for ATX to steady themselves on going into their first week in nearly a month with no midweek fixture. I do not envy the position Nico Estévez has been in for the majority of this season with the injuries the team has dealt with, but you have to find a way to get all three points in this game. And “F*ck Houston” is a rallying cry we can all get behind!
Predictions
ZG- 2-1 Austin FC
E- 2-1 Austin FC
