Week 14 MLS Picks
We came up short in the midweek across the board but the damage was minimal. As the double game weeks roll on, it’s a quick turnaround to the Week 14 picks.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 14 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. In the midweek the entry was immediately nerfed by Diego Rossi not starting. John Pulskamp gave up two goals in the first half against St. Louis City SC but then Santi Moreno couldn’t find a shot on target against RSL. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
We’re still quite upset with Underdog Fantasy and what they’ve done to the MLS board over the last three weeks. The pickings are slim. We’ll begin the Week 14 (which is a continuation of “rivalry week”) entry by going to the “Hell Is Real” derby between Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati. The Cincy injury report is clean coming into Saturday and we expect Evander to be out there and starting. We’re more than willing to take the multiplier ding down at 0.89x by selecting his higher than 2.5 shots attempted. Evander is averaging 3.94 shots per 90 so far in 2025 and is averaging 3.3 shots per 90 across his 5,535 MLS minutes over the last three seasons.
Then we’ll go to a goals allowed prop and target Brad Guzan for the second straight time. Atlanta United came away with a point at Q2 Stadium on Wednesday, with Guzan allowing just a single goal on Brandon Vazquez’s free kick banger. Now the Five Stripes will host Philadelphia Union on Saturday and we’re going right back to the old man in net. Guzan has given up two or more goals in nine of 13 games this season and also gave up three goals to the Union when the two teams met earlier in the year in Philly. The Union have also been producing well, netting two or more goals in eight of their 13 games this season, including three of five away matches. The 1.2x multiplier brings this solidly into play for us.
Closing out the Week 14 entry with Sunday Night Soccer. El Trafico is how we’ll end our MLS weekend, with the winless LA Galaxy hosting their crosstown rivals LAFC. There aren’t really any bright spots for the Galaxy at the moment, outside of the fact that Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil are expected to return in some capacity for this match. Everyone on the Galaxy is underperforming, including goalkeeper John McCarthy, who is putting up a career low save percentage (56.9%) through his 10 appearances. The Galaxy as a whole have conceded two or more goals in nine of their 13 games and McCarthy himself is averaging 2.4 goals conceded per game. 0.91x is nowhere near low enough of a multiplier for us to pass this prop by.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.83x your entry fee if successful.
This month we’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Brad Stuver O 1.5 goals allowed (1.15x)
Jack McGlynn O 1.5 shots attempted (0.8x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +12.71 U
Week 13 Picks
New England Revolution
ML -125
New England is back home tonight hosting their old coach Bruce Arena and the San Jose Earthquakes. Guess we could say “old team” as well given how many of the Quakes are former Revs. Either way, San Jose will be without Chicho Arango for at least three weeks after he suffered a hamstring injury on Wednesday. Without their best player, San Jose loses a ton of creation and goal scoring ability. On the home side, the Revs are unbeaten in their last six and have won six of their last eight matches. They still aren’t generating a ton on the offensive side of the ball but their defense is sneakily elite. They’ve allowed just 0.91 goals per game through 13 matches, which is second best in MLS. We’ll back the Revs to win.
Vancouver Whitecaps
ML +155
Look, we don’t enjoy this. At all. But the hottest team in CONCACAF comes to Q2 on Saturday without having to play in the midweek, while Austin FC had a draining duel against Atlanta United in the heat on Wednesday night. If this number wasn’t so high, we’d ignore it. But we try our best (to varying degrees of success) to take our fan emotions out of it when we’re dealing with the books. Vancouver have scored 15 more goals and conceded six fewer than Austin FC this season. They’re also undefeated on the road to this point of the year. We’re more than happy to “sacrifice” a unit in the name of an Austin FC win or draw against the ‘Caps and we totally get it if you don’t want to bet against our favorite team, but we just can’t ignore this as one of the best spots on the Week 14 board.
LAFC
ML +100
It really looked like the Galaxy were going to earn their first win of the season on Wednesday as they took a 2-0 lead into the halftime break at Philadelphia Union. Then five minutes into the second half, the game was level. A stoppage time winner for Philly extended the Galaxy’s record winless streak. Now they host rival LAFC in El Trafico on Sunday night. Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil are expected to be active for this game although it remains to be seen how involved they’ll be after missing a pair of games due to injury. LAFC on the other hand are hot right now, unbeaten over their last six and coming off a 4-0 thrashing of Seattle Sounders. We’re taking LAFC to win at even money.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 14 shouts.
Federico Bernardeschi +360
Kevin Denkey +230
Evander +270
Hany Mukhtar +140
Petar Musa +165
Willy Agada +225
Hirving Lozano +140
Luis Muriel +245
Denis Bouanga +155
To Score 2+ goals
Denis Bouanga +900 (0.5 U)
Results
Last Week: -2.14 U
Season: +9.33 U
