Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info
Kickoff: 8:00pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 7W-0D-5L record against Houston Dynamo.
The two teams met last month in Houston where the Dynamo won handily by a 2-0 scoreline. They were helped along by the midgame injury to Dani Pereira, which flipped the momentum of the game on its head. Austin FC has yet to win an MLS match since Pereira went down with the hip injury.
The Dynamo have only earned a result in one game at Q2 Stadium, which happened to be the last time these two teams met in Austin back in September of last year, where Coco Carrasquilla’s bicycle kick was the lone goal in the 1-0 result.
Even though Houston has won consecutive matches, Austin FC has still won first and most in this rivalry, including winning Copa Tejas twice since ATX began play in 2021, while Houston has won zero Copa Tejas trophies.
Houston Dynamo Recent Form
As we made sure to mention on Sunday’s episode, Houston did win the 2023 US Open Cup. That is the last factually accurate statement that comes off as praise about this disgusting joke of a franchise that you’ll see out of us!
The Dynamo followed up their lucky cup run two years ago with a home defeat to Detroit City FC in 2024. Now that’s the orange team we know!
Since the 2-0 Dynamo victory in late April, they’ve been on a decent run of form in MLS play with six points from their last four matches. They dropped a road fixture to LAFC by a 2-0 scoreline and went down a man in the first half at home against Seattle Sounders, ultimately losing 3-1. Their Round of 32 US Open Cup match against Phoenix Rising, which went to extra time level at one apiece before Houston rattled off three goals in the additional period, was sandwiched between those two games.
Leading into this match, Houston has won two straight league matches in shutout fashion. First, they took care of Minnesota United at home 2-0 in what was maybe the most complete performance by the Dynamo this season. Then they picked up a huge three points in the Copa Tejas standings with a 2-0 road victory over FC Dallas, which was the club’s first win in Frisco since 2011.
We’re exactly a month removed from when we last saw these two teams play and with the close proximity of these two rivalry fixtures you’d think there wouldn’t be much to catch up on outside of results. But the timing of that April meeting was unique, because the primary transfer window closed three days later. Houston was busy at the deadline, adding three players to their first team roster, all of whom could all see the field on Wednesday at Q2 Stadium.
They’ve bolstered the back line, signing centerbacks Pablo Ortiz and Felipe Andrade, with the two defenders splitting the 90 minutes against FC Dallas during Saturday’s road win. Andrade has been around for a few months on loan from Brazilian side Fluminense FC, though he spent the spring with Houston’s second team. Ortiz on the other hand, who was subbed off at halftime against Dallas on Saturday (unclear to me if it was due to injury or not), arrived in Houston on loan through the end of this season from Slovakian side Dunajská Streda.
The Dynamo also made both an addition and subtraction from their attack at the deadline, sending forward Aliyu Ibrahim to Columbus in exchange for $450k in cash and signing forward Toyosi Olusanya from St. Mirren in the Scottish Premiership. Olusanya profiles as a rotational starter that would back up DP striker Ezequiel Ponce when everyone is healthy. But Ponce was a surprise inactive against Dallas on Saturday, with head coach Ben Olsen saying he picked up a knock against Minnesota in the midweek match and that he expects Ponce to “be back soon.” It’s unclear if “soon” means Wednesday at Q2, but we’d certainly prefer the talented Ponce to take another few days off than not.
Austin FC Recent Form
Even though the Verde and Black didn’t manage to secure a home victory over their two-game MLS home stand this past week, the vibes are certainly not as low as they were coming off the narrow victory in the Round of 32 against El Paso.
The team has looked more cohesive as a whole over their last few outings, but without victories to show for their efforts it ultimately won’t keep the concerns surrounding this roster from bubbling to the surface again if things don’t continue in a positive direction to close out the busy month of May.
Wednesday’s match against Houston presents another challenge for the coaching staff. After playing what could only be deemed as a mostly “first-choice” lineup against both Atlanta United and Vancouver Whitecaps over the last week, head coach Nico Estévez and the high performance staff will have even less to work with in the midweek knockout match. The US Open Cup only allows for seven bench players, down from the nine that a team is allotted in an MLS match. With one of those substitutes needing to be a goal keeper, that means Estévez will have just six field players to choose from as reserves in a match that will extend to 120 minutes if the two teams are tied at the end of regulation.
They also have the additional incentive of the Round of 16 draw presenting them with an unscheduled rivalry match. Sure, the fans want to advance in the US Open Cup no matter who the opponent is. But the Dynamo coming to the Q just a month after Austin dropped the first meeting of the season between the two? Nothing draws the ire of a fanbase like losing to your most hated rival. The “must-win” vibes are always present whenever Houston (or Dallas) comes to town.
There’s also the matter of opportunities usually afforded to young players and back ups during cup competitions. Goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland started the match last round against El Paso and typically the second stringer would continue to get the call. We discussed our desire for Brad Stuver to get the nod on Episode 225, but fully understand if Cleveland is out there on Wednesday. If he is, it’s a great chance for him to win back the confidence of the fans (and maybe some for himself) after conceding four goals combined in his last 180 minutes for the club, which have come against MLS Next Pro and USL competition.
It also shouldn’t be a surprise to see some changes in the field players from Saturday’s match. Options like Jáder Obrian, Žan Kolmanič, CJ Fodrey, Diego Rubio, Julio Cascante and Nico Dubersarsky could all end up in the starting group. I’d estimate that, barring a shocking change in the status of the injured Dani Pereira or Mikkel Desler (who both scrimmaged with the second team on Tuesday) we’ll see the same names on the team sheet as a whole, with Riley Thomas and Micah Burton being the two left off with the bench shrinking by two spots.
No matter who is out there for the Verde and Black on Wednesday, one thing is certain. This team still needs to prove that it can score multiple goals, in any location, against an MLS side. It’s something that Austin FC has done just once in 2025 and that came against a depleted San Diego FC team during the last international break.
ATX is underperforming their expected goals (xG) through 14 league matches at a club record rate. With 18.1 xG, they’ve scored just nine actual goals, by far the highest G-xG in MLS. They’ve also underperformed their expected goals against (xGA) by a slim margin, allowing 16 goals on 15.3 xGA.
Austin FC has generated more xG through 14 matches just once in club history. That came during the 2022 season that saw them overperform their xG by a wide margin. Hell, through 14 matches that year ATX had produced 22 xG and scored a whopping 29 goals! That season is also proof that a team will not always regress to the expected output over the course of the season, as Austin ended up scoring 65 goals on 51.7 xG in 2022. So even though we’d all like to think that the goals will come, it’s far from guaranteed.
What I’m choosing to take solace in, both for Wednesday’s match against a staunch-ish Houston defense and going forward in league play, is that this team has generated more xG than we’re used to in ATX while also allowing the lowest xGA mark through 14 games in club history. If the Austin defense can remain relatively steady and the team becomes more cohesive in the attack, we might just have a good team on our hands. The talent is there on paper, but it’s up to the talent to go out and finish the chances they’re generating.
With the midpoint of the MLS regular season schedule less than two weeks away, Wednesday would be a great goddamn place to start.
Injury Report
These are estimates until we get official injury reports from either team, which aren’t guaranteed for US Open Cup matches.
ATX:
Robert Taylor (Out - Hamstring)
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Dani Pereira (Out - Hip Flexor)
HOU:
Ezequiel Ponce (Questionable - Undisclosed)
Daniel Steres (Questionable - Lower Body)
Erik Sviatchenko (Questionable - Lower Body)
Nelson Quinones (Doubtful - Knee)
Andrew Tarbell (Out - Knee)
Lawrence Ennali (Out - Knee)
Houston Dynamo Players to Watch
Jack McGlynn - The centerpiece of everything the Dynamo are trying to do offensively going forward, the 21-year-old former Philadelphia Union homegrown is on pace for a career season statistically. He’s already got six goal contributions in his first 13 league games for Houston, along with another goal last round Phoenix Rising. When he’s on his game, McGlynn is a dual threat type of midfielder. He will be looking to slip passes through in behind the Austin FC back line to the likes of Ponce, Bassi, Dorsey and Sebastian Kowalczyk. If they take away the passing lanes and leave him an inch of space, McGlynn can strike a dangerous ball from outside the 18 yard box as he did three times against Austin last month.
Ondrej Lingr - The Dynamo’s most recent DP addition may end up starting up top for the orange team on Wednesday if Ponce remains sidelined. Lingr got off to a scorching hot start in his Houston tenure, scoring two goals in his first two games with the first being a stoppage time equalizer against Colorado Rapids and the next being the winning goal against Austin FC. Lingr is more of an attacking mid, but can step in at forward in a pinch. No matter where he lines up, Lingr has proven to be able to get into dangerous spots and put balls in the back of the net.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Survive and Advance - In my perfect world, Austin FC is able to run out a first choice lineup that includes Brad Stuver and all three designated players on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, my fantasy land that I love to live in while we’re talking about the team here in The North End is just that. What I desire and what I expect are two different things, especially in the context of this match. No matter what curveballs are thrown our way when the lineup comes out or during live play, survive and advance is the name of the game in knockout competition. We don’t care how you get it done boys, just beat Houston.
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 1-0 Austin FC
