Match Preview - Minnesota United
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Allianz Field - St. Paul, MN
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 5W-0D-5L record against Minnesota United.
The two teams met last month in Austin where the Loons won handily by a 3-0 scoreline – the worst home loss in team history. While the loss was a brutal one that kicked of the challenging May schedule, Austin FC and Minnesota have been as evenly matched as the all-time record indicates. Since their first contest between the two back on May 1st, 2021, both teams are sitting on 11 goals for and 11 goals conceded.
Two of the most disheartening matches in recent memory for Austin FC fans have taken place against the Loons. The first of course coming three weeks ago with the other being opening day of the 2024 season, where ATX played arguably their worst half of football in club history in what ended as a 2-1 defeat to a shorthanded and interim-coached Minnesota.
Time for some revenge.
Minnesota United Recent Form
Sitting in second place in the Western Conference, Minnesota has enjoyed a smooth start to their season. Paced by some of the top scoring talent in the league, the Loons have planted themselves amongst the league’s best on both the offensive and defensive side of the field.
Head coach Eric Ramsay, who was a former assistant at Manchester United and hired by the Loons in February of 2024, has instilled a philosophy and play style that is as unique as it is potent. While teams like LAFC, Portland Timbers and Philadelphia Union play an aggressive counter-attacking style that places little emphasis on ball possession, Minnesota might be the best in the league at catching opposing teams off balance.
They’re almost allergic to having the ball as can be seen by their possession numbers, which rank last in MLS, possessing the ball for just 36.7% of the game on average! While it’s intuitive to assume that not having the ball would lead to conceding more goals, Ramsay and his defensive unit, paced by the dreaded Michael Boxall, have the most clean sheets in the league and are third best in goals conceded per match. The underlying numbers back up the early season results, with Minnesota sitting 28th in expected goals conceded (xGA) with just 14.2.
When they do have the ball, they are about as direct as it gets. They utilize their incredible speed on the wide parts of the pitch to stretch defenses and find avenues towards the net. Athletic forward duo Tani Oluwaseyi and Kelvin Yeboah are some of the fastest in the league at the position, but the list does not stop there. After being relieved of his more front-facing attacking duties since the arrival of Yeboah, Bongokuhle Hlongwane was shifted to a wingback position instead of his more natural winger spot, but boy, he can motor no matter the position. Flanking him on the other side is typically Joseph Rosales, but he is currently serving a suspension for discriminatory language. But wouldn’t you know it, his backup, Anthony Markanich, possesses excellent pace as well. Markanich scored the second Minnesota goal at Q2 in the match earlier this month.
The midfield also has a potent mix of top-level talent and club stalwarts who know their roles and execute with precision. Recently acquired designated player Joaquin Pereyra has filled the void left by Emmanuel Reynoso’s departure last season and is off to one of the most successful starts to the season of the DP attacking mids in the league right now. He has seven goal contributions and knows how to play the Loons speedy forwards and wingers into space with great instinct.
You’ll likely see Minny line up in their choice 3-4-2-1 formation if they choose not to go dual striker with Yeboah and Oluwaseyi up front. Yeboah started their Wednesday US Open Cup match, so he may rotate. If that is the case, then Pereyra will be paired with Robin Lod – an MLS veteran with 156 appearances for his club and 75 caps for his native Finland. Lod does a bit of everything, including some dirty work, but the counter attack starts with the four players behind Minnesota’s more attack-minded Pereyra-Lod duo.
Once in possession, Markanich and Hlongwane release up the sides of the pitch, pushing Pereyra and Lod more centrally to create overloads on whichever side of the field they see fit. You won’t see probing strings of passes searching for openings when the Loons have the ball, but you will see direct passes into space with ill intentions. Once they have matriculated up the field in this manner, Yeboah and/or Oluwaseyi serve as athletic, large targets for sweeping crosses. This team is a very difficult matchup for any club, and the Austin defense will have their hands full once again.
Coach Ramsay likes to get creative and aggressive with the Loons set pieces. In the game earlier this month we saw Minnesota calling on goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair to jog up to near midfield to launch free kicks into the Austin penalty area in hopes of generating a chance. This tactic worked against the Verde and Black in the first game and generated the Markanich goal for Minnesota. Ramsay will also have centerback Michael Boxall push all the way up the field for long throws in their opponents half.
Since dismantling Austin FC on May 3rd, the Loons have advanced to the quarterfinals of the US Open Cup with victories over Louisville City FC and St. Louis City SC. In league play they blasted Inter Miami 4-1 at home, rotated and dropped a road game to Houston Dynamo before they responded with a commanding 3-0 win over St. Louis City at home. This is a formidable opponent who is entirely bought into their scheme, trusts their coaching staff, and understands their roles – they are a true test for Austin FC.
Austin FC Recent Form
Checking ye olde Verde Vibes meter and things feel pretty, pretttttttty, good. Not that the bar was high after the ass whooping Minnesota put on us and the flat out inexcusable first half performance against El Paso Locomotive that followed, but like the Loons, Austin FC found a way to advance to the US Open Cup quarterfinals after a 3-1 thrashing of Houston Dynamo on Wednesday.
On top of that, we saw arguably Austin’s most complete game this year in the 0-0 draw secured against Vancouver at Q2 Stadium last Saturday. While Austin deserved three points from that game, the fans who watch the games and have the pulse of this team understand just how impressive we looked against the league’s best. It would have been much nicer to win that contest, but we saw what this team could be capable of when they’re truly locked in. We’ve been waiting for signs of improvement and they’ve shown up over the past week.
To add to the improved vibes, Mikkel Desler is expected to play off the bench on Saturday and Dani Pereira was upgraded to questionable on Friday’s injury report. Robert Taylor is also expected to return soon, potentially by next Saturday’s away match against San Diego FC. When you pair that news with the performances Austin had against Vancouver and Houston, things are starting to look a bit better after an absolutely brutal stretch for the Verde and Black in the month of May.
Fans were also delighted to see the second multi-goal match versus an MLS side this season when Austin bombarded Houston in the midweek. A goal from Brandon Vazquez kept his goal contribution streak alive and a goal and an assist from Osman Bukari brought smiles to the faces of many Austin FC fans. With Bukari finally being unleashed on his natural right side of the attack and the confidence he has in tow from two excellent performances in a week’s time, fans should be encouraged with the positive momentum the team is working with right now.
While all the things I have outlined here are cause for positive vibes, Austin is still sitting on a five game winless streak in league play that has resulted in Austin sliding from second place all the way to ninth in the Western Conference.
The aforementioned Vazquez and Bukari seemed to have turned the corner, but Austin desperately needs their third DP, Myrto Uzuni, to get going in order to hit the expected ceiling for this team. Uzuni, having not started against Houston, should be ready to roll come Saturday. The team is going to need him to have a solid performance and soon.
In Episode 226, ZG and I talked about potential rotation in this match. As of late, we have witnessed Nico relying on his starting XI heavily with subs coming on later than expected in the Texas heat. I think coach Estévez has signaled that he has the guys he trusts and he is willing to run them as much as possible to get results.
Frankly, I am not sure what to expect from this lineup on Saturday. Even a “best XI” for Austin will be hard pressed to beat the Loons at their place. With a very winnable home match against Real Salt Lake coming on Wednesday, Nico and his staff have some tough decisions ahead of them.
Injury Report
ATX:
Dani Pereira (Questionable - Hip Flexor)
Robert Taylor (Out - Hamstring)
MIN:
Samuel Shashoua (Out - Leg)
Kipp Keller (Out - Leg)
Minnesota United Players to Watch
Tani Oluwaseyi - Oluwaseyi leads Minnesota in goal contributions with 10 – six goals and four assists. He plays with pace and is a huge threat in the air. His movement in the box is deadly. He’s got some great chemistry brewing with Pereyra and makes threatening runs that not only allows him to receive passes but draw defenders with his gravity, creating openings for teammates. In the last matchup against Austin FC, he found himself on the receiving end of several dangerous chances and even though he didn’t convert them, he will need to be accounted for.
Joaquin Pereyra - A maestro in the midfield, the 26-year-old Argentinian midfielder is excellent in distribution but also possesses game-changing goal-scoring capabilty. His goal from outside the 18 in the later stages of the first matchup between these clubs was the cherry on top of the win for the Loons and displayed just what he is capable of. After subbing on late on Wednesday in the Open Cup, Pereyra found Markanich on two separate occasions in a four-minute span that turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 home victory . He is difficult to pressure, as he has fully embodied Ramsay’s style of play and gets the ball off of his foot quickly. Don’t let that fool you, as he can also break defenders down one-on-one and create goal-scoring opportunities for himself just as well as he can create for others.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Ball Security - Minnesota is going to let Austin FC have the ball. ATX should dominate possession in this game, which will make ball security imperative. Sloppy passes, no matter where they occur on the pitch, unleash Minnesota’s counter attack. It will be very important to be crisp in possession and not get caught over-extended up the field. The Loons can press at times, but much prefer to sit back and let their opposition control the ball. Pick and choose spots to go forward, but never forget that when they do have the ball, Minnesota will be looking to push the pace up the field very quickly.
Transition Defense - Get back! Lackluster effort in transition could spell disaster for Austin in this matchup. When Minnesota is on the ball, defenders cannot jog, they must sprint to get back. The ball will always move faster than the man, which means that defenders, particularly the fullbacks and defensive midfielders will need to return to our structure in order to handle the oncoming attack. The players the Loons have at their disposal are faster than our defensive players, meaning a collective effort to cover for one another will be of the utmost importance. Limit their transition attempts and try to make them play in a condensed space and the Verde and Black can limit the amount of opportunities that Minny can create. Do your work early so that you don’t find yourself in compromising positions.
Predictions
ZG - 1-1 Draw
E - 1-1 Draw
