Week 30 MLS Picks
We’ve got a bit of a losing streak going, though the damage has been minimal. This weekend’s slate is shorter than normal with the Leagues Cup wrapping up on Sunday with just MLS teams left, but we’ve got some juicy spots to attack.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 30 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Let’s get to the board and build a winner!
More limited options on the board this weekend due to the shorter slate, but we’ve found a number of props that are exciting to attack. This week’s entry is a trio of picks from the 7:30 pm CT window on Saturday and we’ll start with Austin FC’s opponents and look to Chicho Arango’s shot line. Rarely do we include a prop with a 0.85x multiplier but check this out. Chicho is averaging 4.37 shot attempts per 90 this season, but that number isn’t just San Jose specific. Over more than 8,800 career MLS minutes, Chicho averages 4.13 shot attempts per 90. He’s gone over this number in 22 of 24 games this season when playing 31 or more minutes and has gone over this number in ten straight road matches after taking just one shot in the Quakes first away match of the season. If you wanted to spice up the multiplier, going with higher than 3.5 shot attempts gives you a 1.22x option, but we’re going to play it “safe” here and stick with the 2.5.
Next we’re going to attack the Houston Dynamo defense. They’re on the road taking on St. Louis City SC in a battle of two teams getting close to just playing out the string in lost seasons. Things have changed a bit for STL after firing Olof Mellburg during their low scoring streak to open the season and they’ve now scored two or more goals in seven of their last ten MLS matches. At the books they’re -180 to score two or more on Saturday and it’s not like Jonathan Bond has been stellar this season, conceding 1.68 goals per game in 2025 and giving up two or more in 11 of his 19 league games. On top of that, Pablo Ortiz is out with injury this weekend, meaning STL will likely get a dose of Ethan Bartlow at centerback for Houston.
Closing it out this week with another goals allowed prop, this time heading to Kansas City to target the visiting Colorado Rapids. The ‘Pids have been surprisingly solid after selling Djordje Mihailovic earlier this month, earning six of a possible nine points in August. But books and bettors alike are not buying it. Sporting KC opened as -160 to score two or more goals and as of Saturday morning that number has shifted all the way to -200. Maybe they’re looking at the same stats we are that show Zack Steffen has allowed two or more goals in seven of his last eight road matches and 10 of 17 overall on the season.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.1x your entry fee if successful.
We’ve added some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week are listed in order of preference and we’re fine using these props in any entry.
Diego Rossi O 2.5 shots attempted (1.03x)
Kristijan Kahlina O 1.5 goals allowed (1.03x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +19 U
Week 30 Picks
Philadelphia Union
ML +140
This is a pretty low number to be attacking a road team going into TQL Stadium in 2025, but hear us out. Cincinnati have been a mediocre home side this season, earning 23 points from their 13 matches. But the full season paints a much less rosy picture for the Knifey Lions. In Opta’s xG table, FC Cincinnati would be in 11th place in the Eastern Conference on 34 points instead of the 2nd place and 52 points they find themselves on from their 28 games. Now that doesn’t mean that Cincy aren’t a good team, but it does indicate the heaviest table shift in the xG table from the actual table for any team. In that xG table, the Union remain in first place in the Supporter’s Shield race, just as they are in the real table. With some potential regression coming to end the season for the Lions, we’ll take the first place team in all the tables to take three points home with them from Cincinnati.
ATX/SJ BTTS + SKC/COL BTTS
Parlay +101
Finishing our abbreviated matchday at the books with a both-teams-to-score (BTTS) parlay. Most of our readers know from listening to The North End Podcast that the Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes matchup historically averages four goals per game. Both teams have scored in eight of the ten all-time meetings, including the last seven straight matches.
We’ll pair that with a second BTTS in Kansas City. Clearly from the Underdog section, we expect the Rapids to give up multiple goals. But the home side also struggles mightily to keep goals off the scoreboard and Sporting KC has the fewest clean sheets in MLS this season with just three from their 27 matches. They’ve also given up the most goals in the league at 55 and have been scored on at least once in every match since May 17th. Pairing these two BTTS props together gives us a two-leg parlay at essentially even money.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 30 shouts.
Christian Benteke +200
Wessam Abou Ali +200
Leo Campana +170
David Da Costa +390
Kristoffer Velde +390
Paxton Aaronson +280
Chicho Arango +215
Osman Bukari +225
Heung Min Son +130
Hirving Lozano +320
Marcus Ingvartsen +320
Results
Last Week: -1.45 U
Season: +46.26 U
