Match Preview - San Jose Earthquakes
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a 1W-7D-2L record against San Jose Earthquakes.
Technically, you could say that the Verde and Black have two wins against the Quakes after their US Open Cup quarterfinal match back in July saw Austin FC advance on penalties after the two teams were, as usual, level after regulation. But the official record books have that one as a draw, so we’ll avoid misrepresenting things here!
Austin’s lone win in this head-to-head series came in April of 2024, when Sebastián Driussi’s strike from the top of the box in the 11th minute of second half stoppage time sent Q2 Stadium into a frenzy.
San Jose Earthquakes Recent Form
San Jose’s season to this point has been quite the ride. From being the 2024 wooden spoon winners to now sitting in eighth place in the Western Conference, it’s been rocky but things are looking up. The turnaround for the Quakes started in last offseason when they hired Bruce Arena as their new head coach (Arena also got the Sporting Director nod) and made impactful personnel additions Chicho Arango and Josef Martinez, adding firepower to an already dynamic attacking front.
Arena has implemented an incredibly aggressive style of play that routinely throws caution to the wind as the Quakes push bodies forward in an effort to overwhelm their opponents at the back. Pair that with a high press that speeds up the game state and causes frequent mistakes by the opposing team and it’s easy to see why San Jose sits tied with San Diego FC atop the Western Conference for the most goals scored. Those 52 goals aren’t a mirage, as San Jose has recorded the most xG in the league – outpacing the likes of Orlando City and Inter Miami, the two teams with more goals scored (54) this season. Furthermore, the Quakes have created the second most big chances (91) in their 28 MLS games this season for an average of 3.25 big chances per match. For reference, Austin FC creates 2.46 big chances per game.
Thus far the formula has worked, at least compared to recent Quakes seasons. San Jose is tied with Austin FC on points (35) and the clubs are also level on the first tiebreaker (total wins), but the Quakes hold the second tie-breaker (goal differential) over the Verde and Black. Austin does have two games in hand on San Jose, which could prove to be the difference in the table as the 2025 season winds down.
Most recently, San Jose has enjoyed a decent run of form. They’ve secured six points from their last three games which included wins over Vancouver and Houston along with a loss to first place San Diego.
Going back to what I said about the Quakes season being “quite the ride,” prior to the six points earned from their last three games, San Jose was on their poorest run of form this year. After defeating FC Dallas on June 25th, the Quakes did not win a single game in seven tries until they were able to turn the tide and beat the Whitecaps on August 9th. That’s a run that can give Austin fans flashbacks to the disastrous month of May. However, contrary to Austin, San Jose enjoyed a great run of form during the month of May that saw them earn five wins, three draws and one loss over a 28 day period.
The up and down nature of their season can be attributed to their offensive form, because the defensive unit is consistently terrible. Only Sporting KC and LA Galaxy have conceded more goals than San Jose (48) in the Western Conference so far. While they are slightly underperforming their xG conceded figure, they still rank in the top five in that category, clocking in with a 45.8 xG conceded. With just four clean sheets on the year, only three teams have earned fewer shutouts than the Quakes.
With just six league games remaining for San Jose, every match is massive and ATX fans should expect to see a fiesty opponent at Q2 Stadium on Saturday.
Austin FC Recent Form
Well, despite our best efforts to remain calm, the devastating loss to CF Montreal has the entire Austin FC fanbase on high alert for another fall collapse. With a matchup against San Jose looming, sickos and casuals alike are reminded of the way Austin FC has faltered during the latter parts of every season since the club’s inception.
There’s no sugar-coating it, losing to CF Montreal after two letdowns against our Copa Tejas rivals was a fucking embarrassment. With all of the initial goals coming into the 2025 season still available to this club, giving up three goals to one of the worst teams in the league was nothing short of a catastrophic failure. The complete lack of urgency to begin the game is a stain on both the players and the coaching staff. Montreal had quit on their season, transferring several of the few quality players they had in the summer window while shifting even more youth into the starting lineup. They are looking to 2026 already! Despite not being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, Montreal will not be participating in any meaningful games the rest of this season, but they sure out played ATX last Saturday.
The confidence I have in this team to close out this season is waning by the week and I need to see a complete 90 minute performance against San Jose at home in a game with absolutely massive playoff implications. As mentioned above, San Jose and Austin are tied in points at 35 – making this matchup a true “six-pointer.” I opened Episode 251 on Wednesday by stating that this was one of the most important games Austin has ever had. A win here does wonders for playoff chances and positioning. While Austin does have games in hand over every team in the conference outside of LAFC, the time is now to start capitalizing. No wins from the last three is not how we expected this stretch of the season to play out, particularly when you pair that with the fact that the three teams Austin faced were inferior opponents on paper and in the table.
I expect the coaching staff to stick to their guns. If Ilie Sanchez is ready to go (Friday update: Sanchez is OUT this Saturday), then my best guess would be that we roll out the same lineup that has been working (though I’d hear arguments that it’s not anymore) for us post-Vazquez injury. While I agree that the results over the last three have not been what we wanted, this lineup is still generating chances and scoring goals at a higher rate than at any other point this season.
A huge factor in that has been Owen Wolff’s meteoric offensive rise. The kid’s recent form has been a joy to watch and Wolff has been unleashed on the left wing, scoring four goals over the last five matches. To put that run into perspective, consider that he had three career goals coming into the month of July. As we like to say, don’t touch him, he’s sizzlin’!
The lineup change has also been very beneficial to Myrto Uzuni, who has rounded into goal scoring form as of late with five goal contributions across his last five games. Uzuni, Wolff and Osman Bukari have carried the team offensively after Brandon Vazquez’s season-ending knee injury and will need to be on top of their game with the Quakes visiting.
Unfortunately, the defense has been sloppy as of late relative to the high bar they set for themselves over the first half of the season and the game versus Montreal exposed some real issues for that unit. But my confidence in Desler, BHI, Svatok, Biro, and Brad remains strong.
Several atrocious calls have cost Austin FC clean sheets over the last five games, and the law of averages says we should get a good whistle at some point soon. Containing the offense of the Quakes will be a real challenge, but one that this team is capable of withstanding. Cristian Espinoza being suspended for this game is a massive blessing on paper for Austin as he is one of the best crossers of the ball in the league and a fantastic distributor who has been setting up Arango and Martinez all season long, evidenced by his 12 assists, which is good for fourth most in the league.
I’ll close with this. If Austin comes out the way they did against Montreal, they will get absolutely dismantled by this San Jose team. If that happens, the panic meter of the fan base will be hitting the highest levels in recent memory.
Injury Report
ATX:
Myrto Uzuni (Questionable - Quad)
Ilie Sanchez (Out - Back)
Brandon Vazquez (Out - Knee)
SJ:
Cristian Espinoza (Out - Yellow Card Suspension)
Vitor Costa (Out - Lower Body)
San Jose Players to Watch
Chicho Arango - The fiery Colombian forward has 12 goals on the season and is one of the most aggressive players in the league. He’s launched 103 shots this season, 35 of which have been on target. Chicho also draws plenty of fouls in dangerous areas and he’s not afraid to coax referees throughout the match into giving him a favorable whistle as the game progresses. The last we saw him, he had his PK attempt stoned by Bradley Scott Stuver – so I’m expecting an angry and vengeful Chicho this weekend.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Play Your Game - Austin cannot get into a run-and-gun battle with San Jose. That style of play clearly favors the Quakes. Sticking to the gameplan and relying on the principles that got you here is the way to approach this matchup. Dictate the pace to the opponent at home. San Jose wants to play fast. They want the game sloppy and frenetic so that they can capitalize on Austin's eventual mistakes. They have routinely utilized a high press this season to achieve just that and it’s hard to argue with the results on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think Austin can earn a clean sheet in this game, so they’ll have to score, but let it come from the natural pace of our game and not the madness induced tactics Arena and the Quakes want to implement. Keep guys in front of you and be prepared for counter attacks all night long.
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 2-1 Austin FC
